He'll get the typical 6 to 8 point bounce. A tracking poll will lag a little. The bounce will fade, of course.
Still, things look pretty good for Democrats, especially at the House and Senate level.
LinkI can definitely see a McCain victory, especially considering his across the aisle appeal. The problem (for the GOP) is that he won't bring those voters across the aisle for the Republican Party in the other elections. I think that Bush has really damaged the party in a lot of profound ways with the people. We saw that in 2006 and it will really hit home in 2008. I don't expect to see very many Bushies or neocons out on the stump at all. They may still play well at a few $5K a plate dinners for the insiders, but I'd bet that McCain keeps a tight hold on their leashes.