Author Topic: Dangers of the Modern World  (Read 17436 times)

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Universe Prince

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Re: Dangers of the Modern World
« Reply #60 on: April 27, 2008, 08:52:32 AM »

Quote
Actually, left entirely to the market, there are cycles of economic growth and recession (not panics and crises), but this is not a bad thing as some people might claim. It would in fact be quite healthy, not entirely unlike the natural ups and downs of the stock market, with a net growth result. And most recessions would be relatively short.

=====================================
This is balderdash, and completely UNTRUE.

The Great Depression was not relatively short. It lasted
 all through the 1930's.


Ha! Very funny. I should think even the most cursory student of the Great Depression would realize that the market was most definitely not left alone during the 1930s. So that is perhaps the worst possible example of something being left entirely to the market. Had it been left entirely to the market and not had first Hoover and then Roosevelt tried to fix it, there is a good chance that the Great Depression in the U.S. would have been over by 1932. Instead Hoover and Roosevelt decided they were going to fix it, and all they did was to cause the depression to drag on for more than a decade. The U.S. did not truly begin to recover from the Great Depression until the early to mid 1940s. In part because of the war, in part because after Roosevelt died his ridiculous economic policies began to be removed.


The price of gasoline is determined by the rate of consumption. When the rate dropped in the 1980's because of cafe standards, the price dropped. Then the SUV craze was inflicted upon us and it rose. It is supply and demand. The lower the demand, the more the supply and the lower the price.


Yes, I'm sure you're (not at all) correct. The cost and supply of oil has a great deal to do with the cost of the price of gasoline, more so than how many SUVs are out there. Though I will say some new refineries would not hurt the price of gasoline any.


During the Clinton years, there were very few disruptions to the economy and it was the longest period of sustained growth in history,.


Economic growth during the 1990's was also something of a bubble that burst somewhere around the very end of Clinton's years as President. The notion that Clinton somehow protected us all from the natural cycle of the market is simply not so. But that is not to say Clinton did bad things for the economy. He did sign NAFTA (which has been overall good, though it does not go far enough to establishing actual free trade, imo), and he largely left the economy alone rather than constantly attempting to "fix" it. Unfortunately, none of the current Democratic canidates for President seem to have learned this lesson.


You can deny the facts all you wish, but they are still the facts.


Heh. Yes, indeed so. Physician, heal thyself.
« Last Edit: April 27, 2008, 08:58:13 AM by Universe Prince »
Your reality, sir, is lies and balderdash and I'm delighted to say that I have no grasp of it whatsoever.
--Hieronymus Karl Frederick Baron von Munchausen ("The Adventures of Baron Munchausen" [1988])--

fatman

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Re: Dangers of the Modern World
« Reply #61 on: April 27, 2008, 11:55:21 AM »
Though I will say some new refineries would not hurt the price of gasoline any.

I'm going to use this line as a springboard for my line of thinking Prince, so please don't be offended.  I realize that you don't address the point that I'm going to try to make and this is no way an answer to your post, unless by the line above you meant that refinery shutdowns are the fault of environmentalists.

A lot of things that I read point to the reason that refineries are being shut down, is not so much government interference, but to increase the profits of oil companies and refiners.


Quote
Myth 1: Oil refineries are not being built in the U.S. because environmental regulations, particularly the Clean Air Act, are so bureaucratic and burdensome that refiners cannot get permits.

Fact: Environmental regulations are not preventing new refineries from being built in the U.S. From 1975 to 2000, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) received only one permit request for a new refinery. And in March, EPA approved Arizona Clean Fuels? application for an air permit for a proposed refinery in Arizona.  In addition, oil companies are regularly applying for ? and receiving ? permits to modify and expand their existing refineries.[1]

citizen.org article

An exerpt from Google books, that I'm unable to quote here

Quote
Let me tell you what happened when Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990.

Panic broke out in the Bush White House ... not because of the loss of crude oil supply, but because in Kuwait lay 8% of U.S. refining capacity. In October President Bush sent an urgent message to all of the governors warning of impending short supplies of propane, particularly in the New England states, because most of the propane there was refined in Kuwait. But the real cause of the panic was the fact that in Saudi Arabia lay another 12% of U.S. refining. Saudi Arabia was believed to be Iraq?s next target..

President Bush acted swiftly and forcefully, as he should have. There had been over 100 oil refineries shut down in the U.S. in the ten years preceding the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq. Not a single new refinery had been built in the U.S. in 25 years (and still has not, as far as I know). Everything had moved to the Middle East, in the name of "free trade," of course.

Former ND Governor George "Bud" Sinner

With this said, and hopefully the point demonstrated, I'd like to see domestic production increased.  This means opening ANWR, among other concerns.  The Alaskans want ANWR opened, and to me that is a big factor.  I'd like to see more independent refiners, who are all but gone now, but the high prices of crude effectively lock out any start up competition.  I do believe though, that refineries are not rebuilding because of environmental regulation, but because by artificially suppressing supply and exporting refining capacity the current refiners increase their profits.  I don't fall into the Mean Big Oil camp, but I do not support poor energy policies that have stretched back several Presidents now.


Universe Prince

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Re: Dangers of the Modern World
« Reply #62 on: April 27, 2008, 01:21:04 PM »

I do believe though, that refineries are not rebuilding because of environmental regulation, but because by artificially suppressing supply and exporting refining capacity the current refiners increase their profits.


I don't agree. I'm sure that fact about the EPA only getting one request and regulations not preventing new refineries is true. But that doesn't mean that environmental regulations are not dampening interest in building domestic refineries. Permits I am sure are available, but as I understand it, the cost of building new refineries is quite high, in part due to environmental regulations.

Also, there is a NIMBY factor when it comes to getting local permission to build oil refineries. Refineries are big and ugly, and come with the problem of being oil refineries. People don't like having them around. Which is, to put it mildly, ironic for a country of people who like to drive everywhere.

Yes, I'm sure the oil companies are interested in increasing profits, as I would expect any healthy business to be. But frankly, I don't agree they that are seeking to artificially suppress supply. People buy less gasoline the more expensive it becomes. People buy more gasoline the less they have to think about the cost. Low prices are in the oil companies' best interest, and they know this.
Your reality, sir, is lies and balderdash and I'm delighted to say that I have no grasp of it whatsoever.
--Hieronymus Karl Frederick Baron von Munchausen ("The Adventures of Baron Munchausen" [1988])--

Cynthia

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Re: Dangers of the Modern World
« Reply #63 on: April 27, 2008, 01:23:06 PM »

I believe it exists, as well, Prince. How do we differ?


Well, you seem to keep claiming that all or most people in our society are guilty of consumer greed. I do not.


Yes, some people are like that, but I guess I am too optimistic to believe that most people are like that.

Agree, again.


Do you? "Consumer greed....we are all guilty of that one."

Of course I am somewhat guilty of that one. I do have one tv set. I just recently bought a cell phone, but pay ony 12 dollars a month for 50 minutes a month for emergencies. I have one car that I've kept up to par for over 10 years. I sure as hell try to conserve for the sake of waste on this planet. Those are minor ways, but if I made more money I would shop at the Green stores for food.

You seem to be a bit defensive with me, on this one Prince.  ???

I was simply stating that most of the population contributes to some sort of greed. You even argreed to that greed last night.
hmmm, Chill out there. Have a tomato... Pick it from your garden......like I do. ;)



Universe Prince

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Re: Dangers of the Modern World
« Reply #64 on: April 27, 2008, 01:26:23 PM »

I was simply stating that most of the population contributes to some sort of greed. You even argreed to that greed last night.


No, Cynthia, actually, I'm saying that most of the population does not. That some greed exists does not mean most people are guilty of it. That is the main point of what I said last night.
Your reality, sir, is lies and balderdash and I'm delighted to say that I have no grasp of it whatsoever.
--Hieronymus Karl Frederick Baron von Munchausen ("The Adventures of Baron Munchausen" [1988])--

Cynthia

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Re: Dangers of the Modern World
« Reply #65 on: April 27, 2008, 01:34:06 PM »

I believe it exists, as well, Prince. How do we differ?


Well, you seem to keep claiming that all or most people in our society are guilty of consumer greed. I do not.


Yes, some people are like that, but I guess I am too optimistic to believe that most people are like that.

Agree, again.


Do you? "Consumer greed....we are all guilty of that one."


I think that the word greed is playing the semantics card on this one.
Greed for the economy?
Greed for the nation?
Greed for the environment?
Consumption(Expenditure)?

Greed is an overwhelming desire to have more of something such as money than is actually needed

Gluttony

Voracity

Ravenousness

Insatiability

Self-indulgence



Moderation is the key here. I think the Pope was speaking to that issue, as well.

YEs, I do maintain, based on the definition that
we are all guilty of some sort of greed.

Cynthia

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Re: Dangers of the Modern World
« Reply #66 on: April 27, 2008, 01:42:23 PM »

I was simply stating that most of the population contributes to some sort of greed. You even argreed to that greed last night.


No, Cynthia, actually, I'm saying that most of the population does not. That some greed exists does not mean most people are guilty of it. That is the main point of what I said last night.

Some.
 

Yes, some people are like that, but I guess I am too optimistic to believe that most people are like that.

Semantics on the word some/most. hmmmm, ok now we are down to a word.

Is your some = to my most?

How about "a bunch of", "the majority of", a village full", tons of folks"??


Since you are claiming that you are not greedy, then are the pessimists in life subject to being labeled as greedy ;)?

Universe Prince

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Re: Dangers of the Modern World
« Reply #67 on: April 27, 2008, 01:54:44 PM »

Semantics on the word some/most. hmmmm, ok now we are down to a word.


I think the difference is more substantial than that.


Is your some = to my most?


If I thought it were, would I object to you saying "most"?


How about "a bunch of", "the majority of", a village full", tons of folks"??


Do you think those all mean the same thing?


Since you are claiming that you are not greedy, then are the pessimists in life subject to being labeled as greedy ;)?


No.
Your reality, sir, is lies and balderdash and I'm delighted to say that I have no grasp of it whatsoever.
--Hieronymus Karl Frederick Baron von Munchausen ("The Adventures of Baron Munchausen" [1988])--

Cynthia

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Re: Dangers of the Modern World
« Reply #68 on: April 27, 2008, 02:10:42 PM »
I think the difference is more substantial than that.


Of course!  I never said it wasn't more substantial. You've been arguing the point that I am saying "most or all" of the people are guilty of greed.
I was replying to that "argument", UP.

"Well, you seem to keep claiming that all or most people in our society are guilty of consumer greed. I do not."

I have read your argument on substance, but that was not our issue here....

I would like to hear more from people on this issue of greed, environmental waste, etc.


« Last Edit: April 27, 2008, 02:14:58 PM by Cynthia »

Cynthia

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Re: Dangers of the Modern World
« Reply #69 on: April 27, 2008, 02:16:26 PM »
Do you think those all mean the same thing?[/i

No, tongue in cheek.

Most of the folks in this world buy what they don't need. That can lead into a slippery slope of greed.

Potential for greed is so inviting that I maintain the term MOST....and if you want to argue that point, then fine.

Some of the people in this world are Mother Theresas, MOST are not.

« Last Edit: April 27, 2008, 02:18:56 PM by Cynthia »

Xavier_Onassis

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Re: Dangers of the Modern World
« Reply #70 on: April 27, 2008, 06:49:31 PM »
Should you go to any thrift shop, you will see evidence that people buy a huge number things they do not need. 85% of the clothing in any thrift shop is seldom worn women's wear, 15% is men's wear. There are also tons of unread books, unused home appiances and all manner of odd things, perhaps bought as gifts, stored in the back of a closet, and trucked away when someone moves or dies.

If you watch the Home Shopping Network, you will hear hundreds of people call in to order a Steam Genie or some sort of bauble for themselves and a bunch more for sisters, mothers, husbands and such.

Said items appear in yard sales for a tenth the price, still in their original shipping boxes every weekend.


"Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana."

Universe Prince

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Re: Dangers of the Modern World
« Reply #71 on: April 27, 2008, 07:38:49 PM »

Should you go to any thrift shop, you will see evidence that people buy a huge number things they do not need.


This does not mean they all did so out of greed.
Your reality, sir, is lies and balderdash and I'm delighted to say that I have no grasp of it whatsoever.
--Hieronymus Karl Frederick Baron von Munchausen ("The Adventures of Baron Munchausen" [1988])--

Universe Prince

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Re: Dangers of the Modern World
« Reply #72 on: April 27, 2008, 07:44:57 PM »

Greed is an overwhelming desire to have more of something such as money than is actually needed

[...]

YEs, I do maintain, based on the definition that
we are all guilty of some sort of greed.


You maintain we are all guilty of an overwhelming desire to have more of something than is actually needed? You don't think much of your fellow humans, do you? They buy too many things because, say you, they cannot control themselves. Not exactly a flattering opinion.
Your reality, sir, is lies and balderdash and I'm delighted to say that I have no grasp of it whatsoever.
--Hieronymus Karl Frederick Baron von Munchausen ("The Adventures of Baron Munchausen" [1988])--

fatman

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Re: Dangers of the Modern World
« Reply #73 on: April 27, 2008, 09:43:08 PM »
I don't agree. I'm sure that fact about the EPA only getting one request and regulations not preventing new refineries is true. But that doesn't mean that environmental regulations are not dampening interest in building domestic refineries. Permits I am sure are available, but as I understand it, the cost of building new refineries is quite high, in part due to environmental regulations.

I think that we're going to have to agree to disagree here.  While the higher price of environmental regulation can be applied to new refineries, other industries also face similar regulations.  Smelters, sawmills, power plants and the like all face costly environmental regulations in new construction, but there are still new construction of these facilities going on, especially since the mid 1980's.  Furthermore, does it make sense to outsource our pollution to nations with less stringent environmental practices?  That is essentially what the environmental regulations preventing new refinery construction boils down to.  Personally, I don't buy that argument, but if I were too, there would be the outsourced pollution issue to deal with.  And lastly, while it is true that some environmental regulations are probably somewhat extreme, sensible regulation is necessary.  This regulation not only serves to preserve the environmental interests of the locality of the facility, but also serves to protect the taxpayers for the cleanup costs incurred when a business closes and leaves a polluted area behind.  Ever see what the cost estimates are for Superfund sites?  Well, that last one wasn't actually last, but the problem with your argument is that it rests on an undocumented assertion, in that it's so hard to get a permit, or to find a locality willing to allow a refinery, or the regulation is too costly.  Yet only one was applied for, and it was granted.  I find it difficult to believe that if 20 permits were requested, only that one would be granted.

Also, there is a NIMBY factor when it comes to getting local permission to build oil refineries. Refineries are big and ugly, and come with the problem of being oil refineries. People don't like having them around. Which is, to put it mildly, ironic for a country of people who like to drive everywhere.

No doubt this is true for some locales, but I don't believe that it applies to all localities, or even most.  There are a lot of dying towns where refineries could locate, with local support.  Within 100 miles of my home here, there are three refineries:  Shell in Anacortes, Tesoro in Anacortes, and BP/Arco in Cherry Point, north of Bellingham.  95% of the work I do is in those three refineries or is related to them.  Refinery work is high paying work, though somewhat dangerous.  I find it hard to believe that most locales would reject a refinery that pays excellent wages (especially in the current wage climate of today, when fewer manufacturing positions are giving way to a larger, lower paying retail sector) and may be a mild risk for pollution.  Anacortes and Skagit County in general have some of the cleanest air in Washington State.

Yes, I'm sure the oil companies are interested in increasing profits, as I would expect any healthy business to be.

And I agree here Prince, as I said I'm not a member of the Hate Big Oil crowd.  I do believe that the reason that they're giving for not building new refineries is a poor one though, it would be more honest (though definitely unpopular) to say that it's not economically feasible, rather than blaming environmental regulation and the related costs for the matter.

But frankly, I don't agree they that are seeking to artificially suppress supply

Then why aren't they (oil companies and refiners) building more refineries, if not here, then elsewhere?  Why the buyouts of independent refineries, and the subsequent shutdown of their operations?  The whole thing reeks of artificial suppression.

People buy less gasoline the more expensive it becomes.

Not trying to be facetious here Prince, but do you have stats to back this?  I recall that gasoline consumption didn't drop at all until the past few months, for the first time in 16 years.  And I believe, most of this drop was due to the rise of ethanol, flex fuel, biodiesel, and a declining economy in general.  If what you say is true, then when gas went from $1.85 to $2.85, that consumption should have dropped, but I don't remember it doing so.  Then again, my recollection may be faulty.

People buy more gasoline the less they have to think about the cost. Low prices are in the oil companies' best interest, and they know this.

Gasoline isn't Cheeto's or the newest plasma TV, it's a necessary commodity, especially in rural areas.  I disagree with your argument, people have to buy gasoline no matter what the cost, or else they can't commute to work, farm their fields, or pull that timber down off of the mountain.  The increased cost of gasoline may or may not be passed on to the consumer, but someone who commutes 50 miles to work isn't going to ride a bicycle to work, or rely on a bus/mass transit system that isn't there.  They may buy a more fuel efficient vehicle, but that's if their economic means allow for it, which isn't always the case.  I'd submit that the gasoline purveyors have that person by the balls (if they have them) either way that they go about it.

If low oil prices are in the company's best interests, then why are record profits being posted?  By your line of thinking, the higher prices should lead to lower profits, but they don't.  By suppressing supply (and as I've stated, I believe artificially so) and the inability/unwillingness of the consumer to lower consumption, it's a perfect economic storm that benefits oil companies.  With all of that said, I don't think that the high prices are all the fault of the oil companies, though I think they have a hand in it.  A jittery market that reacts by raising oil $25 a barrel if someone throws a rock at an oil tanker is also a large part of the problem, as is the consumer who could reduce consumption reasonably but refuses to.


Xavier_Onassis

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Re: Dangers of the Modern World
« Reply #74 on: April 27, 2008, 11:23:33 PM »
Should you go to any thrift shop, you will see evidence that people buy a huge number things they do not need.


This does not mean they all did so out of greed.
=======================================================
Surely they will not all admit "I bought these orange stilettoes and these Banana Republic Burmese Excursion Gaiters because I am a greedy person", but what other motive s there for buying that which one does not need and never uses?

"Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana."