It's indeed a "jump" for 2 reasons. 1) the administration and many of their economists were actually expecting a bump in the other direction, so for it to go negative, was quite the neck jerker. 2) IIRC, Unemployment rarely moves an entire percentage point, from 1 cycle to the next. Using Xo's parameters of a whole 3% is largely ridiculous, since under those parameters there'd never be a "jump"