2. By tradition, the run up to the next Presidential election begins in the January after the midterm election, particularly for years when the presidency must change hands, like 2008. The only thing the Republicans have is fear mongering, and distracting the public from what the Bush Administration is really doing, like eviscerating Medicare. They will want Mr. Bush to appear “presidential†in a national defense/security kind of way. They will want an international crisis. There will be a push and push with mounting pressure on Iran to disavow nuclear weapons, and prove itself as a member of the comity of nations. The pressure will be increased until the parties are “eyeball to eyeball.†At that time, Iran will either comply or be attacked. My betting is that Mr. Ahmadinejad and his handlers, for all of their bluster, will back down.
3. The problem is, you can’t start an international crisis before Christmas, and if you wait too long into the second term, any negative repercussions might just spill over into the chances of a Republican candidate in 2008. So, best to get it over with quickly. If there is a disaster, there will be some recovery time.
4. North Korea now has nuclear weapons? North Korea is broke. North Korea has a starving population. If North Korea has a credible nuclear weapon [and the boys and girls in the puzzle palaces hopefully know whether this is the case], we must assume they will sell it to Iran, to enhance its cash position.
