By David E. Sanger and Mark Mazzetti
Published: February 25, 2007
WASHINGTON: President George W. Bush has decided to send an unusually tough message to one of his most important allies, President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan, warning him that the newly Democratic Congress could cut aid to his country unless his forces became far more aggressive in hunting down operatives with Al Qaeda, senior administration officials say.
The decision came after the White House concluded that Musharraf is failing to live up to commitments he made to Bush during a visit here in September. Musharraf insisted then, both in private and public, that a peace deal he struck with tribal leaders in one of the country's most lawless border areas would not diminish the hunt for the leaders of Al Qaeda and the Taliban or their training camps.
Now, American intelligence officials have concluded that the terrorist infrastructure is being rebuilt, and that while Pakistan has attacked some camps, its overall effort has flagged.
"He's made a number of assurances over the past few months, but the bottom line is that what they are doing now is not working," one senior administration official who deals often with Southeast Asia issues said late last week. "The message we're sending to him now is that the only thing that matters is results."
Democrats, who took control of Congress last month, have urged the White House to put greater pressure on Pakistan because of statements from American commanders that units based in Pakistan that are linked to the Taliban, Afghanistan's ousted rulers, are increasing their attacks into Afghanistan.
For the time being, officials say, the White House has ruled out unilateral strikes against the training camps that American spy satellites are monitoring in North Waziristan, in Pakistan's tribal areas on the border. The fear is that such strikes would result in what one administration official referred to as a "shock to the stability" of Musharraf's government.
Musharraf, a savvy survivor in the brutal world of Pakistani politics, knows that the administration is hesitant to push him too far. If his government collapses, it is not clear who would succeed him or who would gain control over Pakistan's arsenal of nuclear weapons.
But the spread of Al Qaeda in the tribal areas threatens to undermine a central element of Bush's argument that he is succeeding in the administration's effort to curb terrorism. The bomb plot disrupted in Britain last summer, involving plans to hijack airplanes, has been linked by British and American intelligence agencies to camps in the Pakistan-Afghan border areas.
Musharraf has told American officials that Pakistani military operations in the tribal areas in recent years so alienated locals that they no longer provide the central government with quality intelligence about the movements of senior Islamic militants.
Congressional Democrats have threatened to review military assistance and other aid to Pakistan unless they see evidence of aggressive attacks on Al Qaeda. The House last month passed a measure linking future military aid to White House certification that Pakistan "is making all possible efforts to prevent the Taliban from operating in areas under its sovereign control."
Pakistan is now the fifth-largest recipient of American aid to foreign nations. Bush has proposed $785 million in aid to Pakistan in his new budget, including $300 million in military aid to help Pakistan combat Islamic radicalism in the country.
The rumblings from Congress give Bush and his top advisers a way of conveying the seriousness of the problem, officials said, without appearing to issue a direct threat to the proud Pakistani leader themselves.
"We think the Pakistani aid is at risk in Congress," said the senior official, who declined to speak on the record because the subject involved intelligence matters.
The administration has sent a series of emissaries to see the Pakistani leader in recent weeks, including the new secretary of defense, Robert Gates. Gates was charged with prompting more action in a region in which American forces operate with great constraints, if they are allowed in at all.
"This is not the type of relationship where we can order action," said an administration official involved in discussions over Pakistan policy. "We can strongly encourage."
Relations between Musharraf and Bush have always been tense, as the Pakistani leader veers between his need for American support and protection and his awareness that Pakistan's population — and intelligence service — have strong sympathies for Al Qaeda and the resurgent Taliban. Officials involved with the issue describe the current moment between the leaders as especially fraught.
Bush was deeply skeptical of the deal Musharraf struck with the tribal leaders last year, administration officials said at the time, fearing that it would limit the government's powers to intercede in what Bush has called the "wild west" of Waziristan.
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http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/02/26/asia/web-0226pakistan.php
