Author Topic: What happened to the "It's the economy, stupid"?  (Read 8003 times)

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Plane

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Re: What happened to the "It's the economy, stupid"?
« Reply #30 on: October 22, 2006, 04:30:46 AM »
The ability to think rationally is a matter of rigor .

I am under the impression that this is seldom a liberal trait , but this may just be sloppy thinking on my part.

Here is an article about how people tend to answer polls pessimisticly.






http://www.globescan.com/news_archives/bbcpoll2.html

The poll—completed mostly before the Asian tsunami disaster—found, on average, 44 percent saying the world economy is getting worse compared to only 34 percent saying it is improving. Similarly, 48 percent say their national economy is getting worse with another 41 percent saying it is getting better. Fully 47 percent see their family’s economic conditions as getting better (vs. 36% saying it is getting worse).

The poll of 22,953 people was conducted by the international polling firm GlobeScan together with the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) at the University of Maryland.


Steven Kull, director of PIPA comments, "While the world economy has clearly picked up from difficult times just a few years ago, people do not seem to have fully absorbed this development, though they are personally experiencing its effects. There seems to be a paradoxical tendency for people around the world to say 'I'm OK; but the world isn't.' Policymakers should take note of this tendency to underestimate the world economy as it may lead people to not recognize the benefits of politically controversial policies such as more open trade or aid programs to help poor countries develop their economies."




http://www.globescan.com/news_archives/bbcpoll2.html

« Last Edit: October 22, 2006, 04:34:12 AM by Plane »

sirs

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Re: What happened to the "It's the economy, stupid"?
« Reply #31 on: October 22, 2006, 11:52:50 AM »
Nice find, Plane.  I came across the same report during some of my searches, though I thoght I'd find some that pertained to the U.S. specfically.  I do recall very vividly how such stories of how folks polled, would indicate a pessimestic perception of the economy, but not because of their condition (as it was good), but of how they perceived everyone else.  So, I know such stuff is out there, just haven't come across anything specfically reporting it as I heard it.  Hopefully, I'll come across some of these, at some point
"The worst form of inequality is to try to make unequal things equal." -- Aristotle

The_Professor

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Re: What happened to the "It's the economy, stupid"?
« Reply #32 on: October 22, 2006, 02:35:21 PM »
This superb article (excellent research, Plane) reminds me that this is similiar to politics, e.g. when polled, people tend to think their local politician is doing great whereas those politicians on the national scene are defintiely NOT.

Will this play a major role in the upcoming November elections?

Plane

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Re: What happened to the "It's the economy, stupid"?
« Reply #33 on: October 22, 2006, 09:56:31 PM »
This superb article (excellent research, Plane) reminds me that this is similar to politics, e.g. when polled, people tend to think their local politician is doing great whereas those politicians on the national scene are definitely NOT.

Will this play a major role in the upcoming November elections?


Google makes research like this pretty easy , and wicipedia is helpfull.


I remember researching questions like these in the public library , it had to be a question worthy of the trip so a lot of research was never done.


Can Google run the world ? Answers come easy , opinions can be validated no matter what they are.

Asking a relevant question is a good skill . Has been since Socrates.

_JS

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Re: What happened to the "It's the economy, stupid"?
« Reply #34 on: October 23, 2006, 09:59:40 AM »
Quote
The ability to think rationally is a matter of rigor .

I am under the impression that this is seldom a liberal trait , but this may just be sloppy thinking on my part.

Generalization. You could take out the word "liberal" and insert Christian, black, white, Democrat, Republican, Maoist, capitalist, etc. Besides, when did I claim to be a "liberal?"

As a side note, from where do you get the notion that rational thinking is a matter of rigor?

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found, on average, 44 percent saying the world economy is getting worse compared to only 34 percent saying it is improving. Similarly, 48 percent say their national economy is getting worse with another 41 percent saying it is getting better. Fully 47 percent see their family’s economic conditions as getting better (vs. 36% saying it is getting worse).

Much of it made sense. China, India, and Indonesia found the most positive results. Pre-Tsunami these regions would have had the most booming economies. Negative views were among established economies experiencing slow or disappointing levels of economic growth (United States, France, Italy, Japan, and Germany). No surprise there.

What is interesting to me is that you did not show Sirs or the Professor the demographic data. Here the statistical reasons for the different optimistic or pessimistic views are given. Notice that Sirs theory on media bias is not amongst them.[/u]

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Overall, within each country, those with relatively high incomes showed optimism about their families’ economic prospects while those with relatively low incomes were more pessimistic. On average among those with very high incomes, 64% were optimistic, while among those with very low incomes only 37% were optimistic and 47% were pessimistic.

No surprise there. It is much easier to show optimism when a small downturn won't be a serious threat to your family's future.

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The effect of education was similar to income. Among those with low education, on average, only 36% saw their family’s economic conditions getting better (42% worse), while those with medium and high levels were considerably higher, with 50% and 51%, respectively, saying it was getting better.

Now we are getting to see that there is a class/educational difference in outlook.

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The young are far more inclined to perceive economic conditions as improving than are the old—especially in regard to their own conditions. Worldwide, a striking 59 percent of those 18 to 29 years old see their family’s economic conditions as getting better, but only 49 percent of those 30 to 44 see this; 41 percent of those 45 to 59; and just 31 percent of those above 60. Where their country is concerned, 45 percent of the youngest group are optimistic, but only 37 percent of the oldest group; and for the world, 41 percent of those from 18 to 29 are positive, but just 28 percent of people sixty years and older.

Roughly what I would expect to see. Generational differences are common and young people are more in tune with the pace and technology of this economy.

Quote
Overall, women tend to be slightly more pessimistic than men about economic prospects. Gender differences are minimal regarding their family’s economic conditions—49% of men were optimistic as compared to 46% of women. In regard to their country’s economic conditions 51% of women thought things were getting worse (38% better) while this was true of 46% of men ( better 44%). Similarly 47% of women saw the world economy getting worse (31% better) as compared to 42% of men (38% better).

Gender differences, again not completely unexpected, though very very interesting.

Now we have one for just North America:

Quote
Americans are quite optimistic about their family situation (58%), lean remarkably negative on their country’s prospects (45% better, 51% worse) and also lean negative about the global economy (39% better, 46% worse).

Their northern neighbors in Canada, are more upbeat. They are positive about their family prospects (62%) and their national economy (61%). However they hold a grim view of world trends (35% better, 53% worse)

In stark contrast is Mexico—one of the most negative countries surveyed. Sixty-nine percent are pessimistic about their family’s economic circumstances, 66% about their country’s economy, and 62% the world economy. Though Mexico had reasonable economic growth in 2004 (4%) it is slowly rebounding out of several years of stagnated growth.

Notice how much more positive the Canadians are than the Americans. Interesting, as the Canadians generally have a much more difficult set of economic hurdles than the United States. Mexico may be doing better, but the income gap is huge in Mexico. That may play a role in the pessimism many Mexicans see. Canada holds a grim view of the world's status, but Canada also views itself as playing a large role in providing refuge and help to many of the world's trouble spots. In general, Canadians are knowledgable about world affairs as well.

Good poll Plane, you could have discussed it better though.





 
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