Russia to deploy missiles in Kaliningrad

[Michael Tee]

<<I don't think that any rocket scientist is fooled , probly not anyone that can operate a cannon either.>>

I unfortunately am not a rocket scientist or a cannoneer or a ballistics expert and so I wouldn't attempt to embarrass myself drawing great circle routes on an atlas.

But.

If it's really all that simple, why doesn't the U.S.A. produce one single academic from a great school with all the necessary qualifications and let him or her say for public consumption, "Hey.  This Russian claim is bullshit.  There is no way etc. etc.?" 

It hasn't happened.  The U.S. has allowed the Russians to embarrass itself with claims that only plane can refute?  PLEEEEZE.

[Amianthus]

There are great circle calculators on the web.

[Amianthus]

You'll note that the great circle path from St. Petersburg to Paris goes well to the north of Poland.

[Michael Tee]

Like I'm going to go on the web, find a great circle calculator, find the location of the American bases in Poland, make great circle calculations from various launch points in Russia, see what could be reached by a great-circle flight path . . .

all the while not knowing what missiles could be launched on what paths from what point of a great-circle trajectory or even IF every rocket launched need follow a great circle trajectory . . .

Yeah lotsa luck.

I prefer to leave it at this - - if the Russians say they are threatened by the missile shield defences being placed where they are, i.e., that they are being robbed of the deterrent value of a second-strike potential - - then I will just take them at their word until the U.S. produces some reputable scientist from an academic environment who will publicly say they are full of shit.

[Amianthus]

No, actually Plane was correct.

Calculate a great circle line from Paris to the furthest north point of Poland, and extend this line into Russia. Anywhere north of this line can hit Paris without flying over Poland (such as St. Petersburg). Do the same thing for Paris to the farthest south point of Poland, and extend that line into Russia. Anything south of this line can also hit Paris without flying over Poland. Two lines (actually curves) are all that is needed. Or look at a globe and use a piece of yarn (same thing).

Simple physics.

[Michael Tee]

<<You'll note that the great circle path from St. Petersburg to Paris goes well to the north of Poland.>>

Beautiful.  Now let's see St. Petersburg to Lyon, or Marseilles, or Rome or Naples.

And Poland seems close enough to the part of the trajectory that overflies the Baltic.  Who says the shield has to sit squarely athwart the trajectory?  Why can't a Polish site intercept the Russian missile over the Baltic?

And while you're at it, let's see the trajectories of any rockets launched in flight from a mother rocket.

I don't know jack-shit about rocketry but I can keep raising questions as long as you keep throwing up factoids.  That's why there are experts, real experts, not do-it-yourself armchair experts like me, whose opinions on matters like this don't mean jackshit. 

When the U.S. produces a credible expert with a solid academic reputation at a leading university who is willing to go on the record to say that the Polish defences can't protect a NATO site, then I'll give it some credence, and otherwise I won't.

[Amianthus]

Beautiful.&nbsp; Now let's see St. Petersburg to Lyon, or Marseilles, or Rome or Naples.

Here they are, but a better choice for hitting those (if your goal was to avoid Poland) would be be from a southern site, like maybe Volgodonsk (shown below as well).

And while you're at it, let's see the trajectories of any rockets launched in flight from a mother rocket.

They would follow the original rocket's trajectory closely. The distance outside the original trajectory that they could arrive at are based on how early or late they're deployed, but the MIRVs that Russia uses don't stray far from the original trajectory.

[Plane]

When were they invaded by a democracy?

[Michael Tee]

Neat trajectories.  Thanks.

So to hit Rome from St. Petersburg, the rocket has to fly right through the middle of Poland.  And La Bella Napoli, pretty much the same.  A little to the south of the centre line, but pretty much through the middle of the country.  And wasn't it the Italians who sent their troops to die in Iraq for the pleasure of George W. Bush when the French wouldn't even dream of it?   

This is starting to make some sense after all.  Even on YOUR terms.

And while we're at it, does the missile shield base have to lie athwart the trajectory, or can it fire into the trajectory from an angle, from Poland to a point over the Baltic, for example?

[BSB]

When the U.S. produces a credible expert with a solid academic reputation at a leading university who is willing to go on the record to say that the Polish defences can't protect a NATO site, then I'll give it some credence, and otherwise I won't.

No surprise there ya snow-blowing commie.

[Amianthus]

And while we're at it, does the missile shield base have to lie athwart the trajectory, or can it fire into the trajectory from an angle, from Poland to a point over the Baltic, for example?

Depends on the missile defense system.

But, of course, we know they don't work, right?

[Amianthus]

So to hit Rome from St. Petersburg, the rocket has to fly right through the middle of Poland.

Yeah, that's why I provided an alternate launch point in southern Russia.

[Michael Tee]

<<When were they invaded by a democracy?>>

Russia was invaded by England, the U.S.A. and Canada and bombed by the French (perhaps invaded as well, I don't really know, my mother-in-law was in Odessa when the French bombed it, which is my own little indirect connection to that event) during 1918 or 19 to 1921 or 22 during the Russian Civil War.  I don't know if Poland and Czechoslovakia qualified as democracies at the time, but the Polish Army and the Czech Legion also took part in the invasions.  There were probably other Allied powers which invaded Russia then.

I think of the Nazi invasion as invasion by proxy - - a proxy gone mad and out of control, but nevertheless a proxy of Western capitalism.  A lot of Russians have the same idea.  Hitler had a lot of help from friends in the west, Henry Ford was one of the better known ones, but there were plenty of others.

[Plane]

Neat trajectories.  Thanks.

So to hit Rome from St. Petersburg, the rocket has to fly right through the middle of Poland.  And La Bella Napoli, pretty much the same.  A little to the south of the centre line, but pretty much through the middle of the country.  And wasn't it the Italians who sent their troops to die in Iraq for the pleasure of George W. Bush when the French wouldn't even dream of it?   

This is starting to make some sense after all.  Even on YOUR terms.

And while we're at it, does the missile shield base have to lie athwart the trajectory, or can it fire into the trajectory from an angle, from Poland to a point over the Baltic, for example?

It needs to be in the line or nearly , the more to the side it is the more it increases the challenge of intercept.

The missle instalation even if it was all over Poland would not cast enough shadow to sheild Nato Territory from Russian territory , and there is not a present plan to install the number required to make a dent in a Russian salvo .

But consider the more modest Iranian territory and resorces and you can see that more of Nato territory is protedcted from Iran than from Russia by this instalation.

But why do the Russians care?  I do not think that their rocket scientists are this stupid and their politicians can get the explanation better than I can give it from them.

I think this is a politically usefull lie and that is about all.

It may be strictly to impress Russians , their leadership knows we don't need to invade or bomb them by now.

[Michael Tee]

<<Depends on the missile defense system.

<<But, of course, we know they don't work, right?>>


Weren't Saddam's missiles shot down by Patriots on the way from Iraq to Tel Aviv?  Some of them, anyway?  (I know they don't work 100% because my sister-in-law in Ramat Gan saw a house on her own block get hit by a missile.)

From the maps, it looked to me like a Polish defence station would be a great place to shoot from at Russian  missiles crossing the Baltic.  Anyway, those Russians seem like nice, solid God-fearin' folks to me - - why'd they get all riled up so if the Polish bases weren't such a threat to them?  Didn't George W. Bush look into Putin's eyes and see a good ole boy there?