Author Topic: XO Investments II  (Read 3475 times)

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Christians4LessGvt

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XO Investments II
« on: May 05, 2008, 03:20:06 PM »
XO
If you have time
what do you think?
this is what i bought a week or two ago when we spoke.
be honest, you wont hurt my feelings, you do that everyday anyway  ;)



http://www.unitedstatesoilfund.com/


"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!" - Ronald Reagan - June 12, 1987

Xavier_Onassis

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Re: XO Investments II
« Reply #1 on: May 05, 2008, 05:02:58 PM »
I think that this fund will continue to rise in price for at least a while. It is all invested in one single asset, so when the price of oil drops, this will drop like a stone, though probably not as severely as a gold fund. It has dropped as low as $46, half its present value within the past 3 years. Yahoo Finance does not provide data as to exactly what companies USO is invested in. There is a difference in profits gained from oil pumped in the US and oil imported elsewhere and refined here, by the way, so knowing what this is invested in is of great importance. Get a prospectus and read it carefully, so you will have some idea of where your money is invested.

  I know from a daytrader friend that USO has been a favorite of daytraders recently.

I prefer to invest in PRNEX and RYBIX, which are more diversified, because (1) being perhaps older than you, I have fewer years to recuperate from a severe loss (2) they seem to be managed in a more studious way and are diversified, and (3) they are not subject to the violent fluctuations that  daytrading can cause.
 
On the plus side, if you invested enough, the rising price of gasoline might be a plus for you in the same way that it is a burden to most other people. I would watch this VERY CAREFULLY between October and January. People hate Big Oil and politicians, wishing to win their favor, say things that can give funds like this the heebie jeebies.

Observe what happens to USO when a major contender for public office mentions ANWAR, for example.


"Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana."

Plane

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Re: XO Investments II
« Reply #2 on: May 05, 2008, 05:21:57 PM »
Is a commodty mutual of one commodity vunerable to short sale calls at the turn of the market?

Christians4LessGvt

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Re: XO Investments II
« Reply #3 on: May 05, 2008, 05:24:27 PM »
Thanks XO.
This fund seems to be connected to the price of oil and not specific companies.
Which I suppose could be good in some ways.
In other words if Hillary or Congress slaps a windfall tax on Exxon
and you were in a fund with Exxon shares you could get hurt
but even if Exxon is hit with a windfall tax
that shouldn't affect the actual price of oil should it?
i realize it's a volatile/somewhat risky investment being so narrow
but with the instability in the middle east
war looming in Lebanon/Iran/Israel/Nigeria/ect...
and the increasing demand for oil from China/India/ect
it would seem like oil will generally trend upward
with a chance of any instability sending it into a huge upward surge
(& no before you say it, I'm not hoping anything bad happens, but if it does, why not get paid for it?)
"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!" - Ronald Reagan - June 12, 1987

Christians4LessGvt

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Re: XO Investments II
« Reply #4 on: May 05, 2008, 05:31:34 PM »
"Is a commodty mutual of one commodity vunerable to short sale calls at the turn of the market?"

Plane I would think most narrow commodity focused funds would be vulnerable to what you say
but oil may be a tad different?
I mean sure it could take a tumble, but for how long?
how could oil prices stay depressed for very long?
i just cant realistically see oil prices staying down for very long even if they did tumble
« Last Edit: May 05, 2008, 05:37:17 PM by ChristiansUnited4LessGvt »
"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!" - Ronald Reagan - June 12, 1987

Plane

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Re: XO Investments II
« Reply #5 on: May 05, 2008, 05:40:27 PM »
"Is a commodty mutual of one commodity vunerable to short sale calls at the turn of the market?"

Plane I would think most narrow commodity focused funds would be vulnerable to what you say
but oil may be a tad different?
I mean sure it could take a tumble, but for how long?
how could oil prices stay depressed for very long?
i just cant realistically see oil prices staying down for very long even if they did tumble


I think so too , if Oil falls in price it will very likely fall to a floor above its price last year , and will forever be above its 52 week low.

The only thing that might change this would be good oil substitutes being found for fuel , fertiliser , plastics , lubracants. There are such substitutes but they arn't yet cheaper than the oil based materiel.

Maccus Germanis

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Re: XO Investments II
« Reply #6 on: May 05, 2008, 05:53:12 PM »
After searching for XO, as if it were a ticker symbol, and realizing Xavier Onasis had answered you, I realized that you didn't really ask me.

But, this fund seems at its core, as it buys and sells short term contracts, unneccessarily volatile. If you are convinced that the commodity itself will continue a general upward trend, then why not invest in the commodity, or a producer, directly? Various trusts are publically traded in which royalty interest of petroleum and natural gas are held. Any increase in the commodities price will be reflected in the distributions paid you. Below is a natural gas royalty in Al, some of the related companies listed are petroleum.
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=dom&hl=en

Plane

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Re: XO Investments II
« Reply #7 on: May 05, 2008, 07:10:26 PM »
After searching for XO, as if it were a ticker symbol, and realizing Xavier Onasis had answered you, I realized that you didn't really ask me.

But, this fund seems at its core, as it buys and sells short term contracts, unneccessarily volatile. If you are convinced that the commodity itself will continue a general upward trend, then why not invest in the commodity, or a producer, directly? Various trusts are publically traded in which royalty interest of petroleum and natural gas are held. Any increase in the commodities price will be reflected in the distributions paid you. Below is a natural gas royalty in Al, some of the related companies listed are petroleum.
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=dom&hl=en


Hey ,and it pays a dividend!

Maccus Germanis

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Re: XO Investments II
« Reply #8 on: May 05, 2008, 08:30:12 PM »
After searching for XO, as if it were a ticker symbol, and realizing Xavier Onasis had answered you, I realized that you didn't really ask me.

But, this fund seems at its core, as it buys and sells short term contracts, unneccessarily volatile. If you are convinced that the commodity itself will continue a general upward trend, then why not invest in the commodity, or a producer, directly? Various trusts are publically traded in which royalty interest of petroleum and natural gas are held. Any increase in the commodities price will be reflected in the distributions paid you. Below is a natural gas royalty in Al, some of the related companies listed are petroleum.
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=dom&hl=en


Hey ,and it pays a dividend!

Actually, no. The distribution is often shown as a dividend for simplicity's sake, but rather than a paying dividend of ongoing profitable business, a royalty, such as this, pays a distribution from the sale of the commodity. It is the commodity that you own interest in. If you're willing to leave your money in the ground, during downturns, then the value of your investment will be quite stable. If the gas runs out, then you own pretty wall paper.

Christians4LessGvt

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Re: XO Investments II
« Reply #9 on: May 05, 2008, 09:41:09 PM »
maccus thanks for the advise but i have a couple of questions
any comments would be appreciated

"But, this fund seems at its core, as it buys and sells short term contracts, unneccessarily volatile".

is it any more volatile than the price of oil?

"If you are convinced that the commodity itself will continue a general upward trend,
then why not invest in the commodity, or a producer, directly?"


Because a single producer may go out of business?
All eggs in one basket not only in one commodity but also one producer?

"If the gas runs out, then you own pretty wall paper"

thats seems in some ways more "volatile"/scary than what I'm in?
« Last Edit: May 07, 2008, 10:18:32 AM by ChristiansUnited4LessGvt »
"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!" - Ronald Reagan - June 12, 1987

Xavier_Onassis

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Re: XO Investments II
« Reply #10 on: May 06, 2008, 01:11:29 AM »
This fund seems to be connected to the price of oil and not specific companies.
Which I suppose could be good in some ways.
In other words if Hillary or Congress slaps a windfall tax on Exxon
and you were in a fund with Exxon shares you could get hurt
but even if Exxon is hit with a windfall tax
that shouldn't affect the actual price of oil should it?

===============================================
It HAS to be connected to either specific companies or to something physical that can be sold.

If Hillary or Obama or McCain slaps a windfall tax on Exxon, it will be charged to other companies as well, and as it will raise prices, it will tend to lower consumption and profits, so this fund and all oil funds will decrease in price.

All taxes will affect prices in some way.
I refuse to buy any fund where I do not know specifically what it's invested in.

Petroleum will not run out anytime soon.
"Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana."

Plane

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Re: XO Investments II
« Reply #11 on: May 06, 2008, 01:16:37 AM »


Petroleum will not run out anytime soon.


It doesn't need to run entirely out , just fall short of the demand , because demand is still strong with the price hikes we have already had , I suppose that the price can continue to rise.

Xavier_Onassis

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Re: XO Investments II
« Reply #12 on: May 06, 2008, 01:20:39 AM »
Oil is a commodity and the supply varies a lot, so this fund will also be volatile.

Don't take my word for it, just check out the past prices on Yahoo Finance. In the past two years, it has sold from $46 to $94 a share.
 
"Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana."

Plane

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Re: XO Investments II
« Reply #13 on: May 06, 2008, 02:04:13 AM »
Oil is a commodity and the supply varies a lot, so this fund will also be volatile.

Don't take my word for it, just check out the past prices on Yahoo Finance. In the past two years, it has sold from $46 to $94 a share.
 


A trend line laid over the advradges is informative , or is there a possiblility of returning to $46?

Xavier_Onassis

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Re: XO Investments II
« Reply #14 on: May 06, 2008, 10:06:06 AM »
A trend line laid over the advradges is informative , or is there a possiblility of returning to $46?


=======================================================
Moving averages are useful indicators of when to buy and sell. If you google "using moving averages" you will find a trove of useful info.
Morningstar University is also a great source.

There is a possibility that USO (or any stock) could drop to .$.05, or rise to $1,000. Not very likely, but possible.
A stock is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.

Paris Hilton could probably sell her old soiled thongs, for thousands.
Others might be willing to repurchase them anonymously for even more.
I suspect that no one would pay for my old Fruits of the Loom, or yours, either.
Such is the nature of the market.
"Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana."