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Poll: Democratic candidates open large lead in congressional races
Updated 10/9/2006 7:32 PM ET
By Jill Lawrence, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — Four weeks before congressional elections, a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows Democrats hold a 23-point lead over GOP candidates. That's double the lead Republicans had a month before they seized control of Congress in 1994.
President Bush's approval rating was 37%, down from 44% in a Sept. 15-17 poll. The approval rating for Congress was 24%, down 5 points from last month.
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The plummeting GOP ratings in the poll of 1,007 adults, taken Friday through Sunday, come after a series of dismal developments for the party. They include high levels of violence in Iraq; a National Intelligence Estimate that contradicted upbeat administration statements on Iraq; a new Bob Woodward book about internal White House disagreements over Iraq policy, and the Sept. 29 resignation of GOP Rep. Mark Foley hours after reports that he exchanged sexually explicit instant messages with teenage House pages.
Last month's poll showed a bounce for Bush and Republicans following the fifth anniversary of 9/11 and a party-wide focus on terrorism. "Not only is it gone, but the Democrats have momentum," Democratic strategist Anita Dunn said.
She called the Foley scandal "the absolute crystallization for people of everything they dislike about Washington and the congressional Republicans."
GOP pollster Ed Goeas and Carl Forti, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said Republican fortunes are better in individual districts than nationally. Republicans are staying loyal and energized, Goeas said.
He added that he's watching to see whether the Foley matter fires up independents who normally don't vote: "Does this become a catalyst for their involvement?"
Two-thirds of those in the survey said they are following the page scandal very or somewhat closely.
More than half — 54% — said Republican leaders who knew about Foley's actions for months or years did not act against him earlier "for political reasons." By 43%-36%, they said House Speaker Dennis Hastert should resign. One-third said the scandal would make them less likely to vote for a Republican; 53% said it would make no difference.
On the question of which party's candidate would receive their vote if the election were held today, Democrats held a 23-point lead over Republicans among every type of person questioned — likely voters, registered voters and adults. That's the largest lead Democrats have held among registered voters since 1978 and a jump from last month's 48%-48% split among likely voters.
Government corruption, Iraq and terrorism were the three most important issues to poll respondents. They said Democrats would do a better job on all three. The party had a 21-point advantage on handling corruption and a 17-point advantage on Iraq. A longstanding GOP advantage on terrorism vanished; Democrats had a 5-point edge. In other indicators:
•57% of registered voters say their own representative should be re-elected, the lowest since just before the 1994 Republican House sweep.
•56% said it was a mistake to send troops to Iraq while 40% said it was not — the biggest split in a year.
•Voters gave Democrats a 54%-28% advantage over Republicans concerning which party would handle gasoline prices better despite the recent drop in prices.
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