October 26, 2006
Seven Reasons Why Karl Rove Is Optimistic
Ok, well, actually, we can’t break into Rove’s head and we don’t know why he’s personally confident. Many speculate that the veneer of hope masks unalloyed fear. But here are seven reasons cited by people who also read “THE polls†and who are in regular commerce with Rove, RNC chairman Ken Mehlman and White House political director Sara Taylor.
Let’s define our term, first. “Optimism†doesn’t mean that these Republicans are convinced that they’ll pick up seats. The White House knows that its majorities in both chambers will be reduced. Optimism also doesn’t imply that these Republicans are blind to the probability of a Dem House takeover and the possibility of a Dem Senate takeover.
What optimism means is that these Republicans believe that there are enough reasons to believe that Republicans can hang on to enough seats in the House and enough in the Senate to barely miss the guillotine.
Reason 1 -- Senior Republicans have all but conceded… heck, they’ve conceded… eight to ten House races. In these races, in Republican internal polls that Rove trusts, the Dem candidate consistently outpolls the Republican candidate outside the margin of error. There are about 20 additional races where the D candidate either leads the R candidate WITHIN the margin, trades leads with the Republican, or occasionally leads outside the margin of error. The Rove Optimist believes that the national Republican turnout effort – the 72 Hour Program – can add one to two percent to the margins of Republicans. So if these Republicans can stay within the margin of error – within two points – of Democrats until Election Day, there’s a chance that Republicans can eek out victories in 70 percent of those contested races. Many of these races are located in congressional districts won by President Bush. Many involve incumbents who have had time to develop party-independent personas. Many represent districts drawn especially to preserve their seats. [MARC AMBINDER]
2. In the Senate, Republican internal polling shows George Allen up, Jim Talent and Bob Corker up slightly, Conrad Burns picking up Republican votes and narrowing the gap with Jon Tester. (Democratic internal polling shows Burns down six; Ford up, Webb up, and McCaskill up).
3. The NRCC spent lots of money very early to define and discredit and render unacceptable many of the Democrats in these tough races. The favorability ratings of many of these Democrats are low or, if they are high, they are soft and vulnerable. There are, in about 15 districts, enough undecided voters who could, in the right circumstances, decide to vote for the Republican.
4. A mantra: What happens during the last week of the election matters as much as what happened during the last month; what happens during the last three days matters as much as the last week. Republicans might catch a break from exogenous events; they might win news cycles in critical areas.
5. In general, the mechanics: Republican candidates have more money; the RNC still has a financial edge; both the NRSC and NRCC are prepared to deficit finance; the 72 Hour Program; The Bully Pulpit of the White House; A single, unified operation run by Ken Mehlman rather than three separate entities run by different people.
6. Republican internal surveys of the base show that the core of that base is primed and ready to turn out. The less-committed periphery of the base isn’t, but the core is. These surveys conflict with some public surveys, but Republicans have been proven right before. According to Republicans, early voting and absentee ballot programs are proceeding apace; 72 Hour Program contacts exceed the record-breaking ’04 levels; overall grassroots output is up.
7. This final reason is perhaps the most important. If Karl Rove evinces one shred of doubt about the fate of Republican congressional control, he’d be lucky if half of the volunteers who diligently show up to Republican victory centers across the country pack up and go home. Optimism breeds faith. And more importantly, optimism could mean the difference between losing 14 seats and losing 35. The base will pick up on signs of Bush’s pessimism, of Mehlman’s pessimism, of Rove’s pessimism. It pays real electoral dividends for the captain of the aircraft to be optimistic and calm as he or she tries to pull out of a downward spiral. To borrow, then torture, another metaphor, to be anything but positively buoyant would be akin to the coach of the basketball team calling a time out to tell the guys who are down 15 pts with a minute to go that things don’t look so good. Demoralizing doesn’t even begin to get at it.
http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2006/10/post_99.html
