DebateGate
General Category => 3DHS => Topic started by: _JS on October 29, 2007, 01:11:11 PM
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You know, Tee and Brass take a lot of shit in here for posting alternatives to what is generally accepted as conventional wisdom.
Yet, there are a number of people in here who actually believe that the tens of thousands of tons of biological, chemical and possibly nuclear weapons of Saddam Hussein's Iraq were smuggled out of that country and into Syria while under constant surveillance by the United States, United Kingdom, and other powers.
I thought this an isolated nutter theory for those whose tongues were so attached to a Bush orifice that they simply could not allow for the WMD to not be there, even if it meant that a two-bit dictator with absolutely no military tactical ability at all, pulled one of the most cunning tricks of modern history.
Yet, this is really a belief, a strong one in the right-wing world. I'm a bit bewildered. So I thought a closer look was in order.
According to newsmax (http://archive.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2005/3/2/230625.shtml) the real culprits were the infamous Russian Spetsnaz special forces units.
"I am absolutely sure that Russian Spetsnatz[sp] units moved WMD out of Iraq before the war," stated John Shaw, the former deputy undersecretary for international technology security.
Just to note, it is spelled "Spetsnaz" (without the 't') when transliterated and it means Special Purpose Regiment. Supposedly the WMD were hidden in both Syria and Lebanon by the Spetsnaz and there are satellite photos confirming this.
For further proof of Russian involvement with rebuilding Saddam's chemical weapons stockpile the article makes the following claims:
According to the book "Russian Military Power," published in 1982, "It is known that the Soviets maintain stocks of CW (chemical weapons) agents."
The two primary Russian chemical weapons in the 1982 Soviet inventory were the nerve agent "VX" and "blistering agents - developments of mustard gas used so effectively in World War I."
Of course, the Soviet Union wasn't the only nation that had a massive stockpile of VX in 1982! Mustard Gas was not used "so effectively" in World War I. In fact, it was mostly a failure except as an area-denial agent, which only helped to further the massive stalemate. Where mustard gas excelled was in later use against weaker enemies who had no way to counter it, or use it back against the attacker. For example, Italy used it against the Ethiopians in the 1930's.
Back to the article, this is not proof at all, of anything! It is just a statement from a book on the Cold War Soviets who certainly did have a lot of nasty NBC weapons, just as we did.
Now we really go on a conspiracy rollercoaster ride. Did the assassinated Prime Minister of Lebanon, Rafik Hariri discover that the Russians and Syrians had hidden Iraq's WMD in his country? Is that why the Syrians had to rub him out? The article suggests this...
However, the possibility that Hariri discovered the location of the Iraqi WMD systems inside his country lends some credible backing to a Syrian assassination effort to silence him.
Also, we are told that Moscow gives Syria a great line of credit on new weapons systems, whereas the Russians expect China to pay in cash, upfront. This can only mean that Syria is "paying" for these new weapons by hiding Russia's big secret! We wouldn't want a full-scale mob war to break out.
And how did the author come by the above piece of dirty little information? We're never told. Maybe he had a private eye tail a Syrian weapons buyer, or maybe he did a credit check on Syria. Who knows?
So how do explain the ability of Iraq and the sinister Russians to pull this big ruse off? Well that is one issue the author does not sidestep, surprisingly. It was out and out CIA failure.
There is no question that the Russian effort to remove Iraqi WMD systems was the most successful intelligence operation of the 21st century. The Russians were able to move hundreds of tons of chemical, biological and nuclear materials without being discovered by CIA satellites or NSA radio listening posts.
"There is a clear sense on how effective they were," noted Shaw.
"The fact that the CIA did not know shows just how successful the Russian operation was," he concluded.
So where was MI6 and James Bond? No doubt he was taken in by an alluring Iraqi belly-dancer, who was really an Iraqi double agent. ;)
This is another article from the very esteemed Worldnet Daily (http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=36463).
I'm not sure it is even worth covering. An opposition Syrian party based in Maryland, claims that President Assad smuggled in the Iraqi WMD in "large wooden crates and barrels."
A little note about the Reform Party of Syria. They are pro-Israel, believe in separating mosque and state (something they have in common with the Ba'athists), and they supported Nicolas Sarkozy's election in France. Why they supported anyone in France, I have no clue other than Syria was at one time a colonial extension of France.
That's about it on this article. Of course, it is wise to remember that we took a lot of information on Iraq's programs from an Iraqi political pressure (Iraqi National Congress) group led by Ahmed Chalabi. So one is wise to understand the group's own motives, especially this particular group who would never be elected by the Syrians in a free election.
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I do not propose anything but that the whereabouts of a lot of stuff is unknown.
It is a possibility that it was made harmless but it is not a possibility that it dissapeared entirely.
Where did it go?
What is the safe assumption?
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I do not propose anything but that the whereabouts of a lot of stuff is unknown.
It is a possibility that it was made harmless but it is not a possibility that it dissapeared entirely.
Where did it go?
What is the safe assumption?
Occam's Razor would seem to apply. It was likely destroyed under the auspices of the treaty that ended the Gulf War and the United Nation's scrutiny.
This isn't Ahmed's furniture we're moving here. You don't just load up the back of a truck with VX, Anthrax, cyanogen chloride, etc.
If the Syrian conspiracy theory is true, then Bush and the Pentagon are the biggest mopes in modern history. It is actually a bit interesting that by trying to save face, these particular right-wing folks are really making Bush out to look horrible. It means that we had the evidence of the WMD being moved and did nothing about it. Also, it means that we know now where it is, but Bush won't follow his own doctrine of pre-emption to destroy it.
Who knows? Maybe the Spetsnaz are just that good. They may be working here in the U.S. right now, and we have no clue. :-X
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Who knows? Maybe the Spetsnaz are just that good. They may be working here in the U.S. right now, and we have no clue. :-X
Well, after the German reunification, we discovered that Stasi was much more capable than we gave them credit for...
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It doesn't matter what the politics are and Occams razor requires possibility.
It is not possible to ger rid of that stuff with no facility to do so, and with no trace.
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Who knows? Maybe the Spetsnaz are just that good. They may be working here in the U.S. right now, and we have no clue. :-X
Well, after the German reunification, we discovered that Stasi was much more capable than we gave them credit for...
They were? I don't believe they were all that spectacular.
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It doesn't matter what the politics are and Occams razor requires possibility.
It is not possible to ger rid of that stuff with no facility to do so, and with no trace.
Read your last sentence again. It is also not possible to have manufactured and stockpiled so much of it, then moved it with no trace.
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http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iraq/fallujah_2.htm
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It doesn't matter what the politics are and Occams razor requires possibility.
It is not possible to ger rid of that stuff with no facility to do so, and with no trace.
Read your last sentence again. It is also not possible to have manufactured and stockpiled so much of it, then moved it with no trace.
Why not?
Destruction does leave traces ,Dioxion where nerve gas is burned for example. Moveing does not necessacerily leave a trace.
It isn't possible that it is gone from the universe , it is gone somewhere.
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http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iraq/fallujah_2.htm
Wow. Chlorine. Really?
We went to war over Chlorine?
Phenols get used in so many things, it isn't even worth bringing up.
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It doesn't matter what the politics are and Occams razor requires possibility.
It is not possible to ger rid of that stuff with no facility to do so, and with no trace.
Read your last sentence again. It is also not possible to have manufactured and stockpiled so much of it, then moved it with no trace.
Why not?
Destruction does leave traces ,Dioxion where nerve gas is burned for example. Moveing does not necessacerily leave a trace.
It isn't possible that it is gone from the universe , it is gone somewhere.
So what you're saying is that you believe the Syrian conspiracy theories?
My belief is that the traces aren't there because the WMD in question did not exist in the quantities we claimed. Non-existent WMD doesn't leave traces either, does it?
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"...a presentation of what is actually known about the weapons and programmes themselves..."
http://www.traprockpeace.org/weapons.html
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They were? I don't believe they were all that spectacular.
The degree of penetration into western governments and the former Soviet Union was much greater than previously known, shocking a large number of intelligence officials in dozens of countries.
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It doesn't matter what the politics are and Occams razor requires possibility.
It is not possible to ger rid of that stuff with no facility to do so, and with no trace.
Read your last sentence again. It is also not possible to have manufactured and stockpiled so much of it, then moved it with no trace.
Why not?
Destruction does leave traces ,Dioxion where nerve gas is burned for example. Moveing does not necessacerily leave a trace.
It isn't possible that it is gone from the universe , it is gone somewhere.
So what you're saying is that you believe the Syrian conspiracy theories?
My belief is that the traces aren't there because the WMD in question did not exist in the quantities we claimed. Non-existent WMD doesn't leave traces either, does it?
I think it is possibly in Syria , but there isn't any real evidence for it that I have seen. It seems like Syria would never give it back so that would not be the first choice, I only call it possible because Saddam gave away his airforce rather than see it destroyed at an earlyer time.
It isn't possibly no where and it isn't possible that there was none , this is a big dog not barking.
If I were Saddam I would have injected it in the earth in an old oil well , then I could get it back when I wanted , but this is just another possibility with no evidence at all.
So what do you think is most likely the real explanation?
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They were? I don't believe they were all that spectacular.
The degree of penetration into western governments and the former Soviet Union was much greater than previously known, shocking a large number of intelligence officials in dozens of countries.
You are talking about the HVA I suspect (they were one aspect of the Stasi). Yes, that did surprise people, though they had effectively penetrated West Germany and that had been known even before the Wall came down. Their conflicts with the KGB were not as well known for sure (interestingly, Vladimir Putin was once working with the HVA in East Germany).
In some areas the Stasi was more effective, in others they were not nearly as effective as we made them out to be.
So, do you believe that the Spetsnaz went into Iraq and moved thousands of tons of WMD to Syria?
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I think it is possibly in Syria , but there isn't any real evidence for it that I have seen. It seems like Syria would never give it back so that would not be the first choice, I only call it possible because Saddam gave away his airforce rather than see it destroyed at an earlyer time.
It isn't possibly no where and it isn't possible that there was none , this is a big dog not barking.
If I were Saddam I would have injected it in the earth in an old oil well , then I could get it back when I wanted , but this is just another possibility with no evidence at all.
So what do you think is most likely the real explanation?
I told you what I think.
I'm not big on conspiracy theories. In 1995 Saddam's son-in-laws defected to Jordan and cooperated quite a bit with the West. One of them, Hussein Kamel gave an interview to IAEA, the transcript is here (http://www.casi.org.uk/info/unscom950822.pdf).
In it Kamel states:
I ordered destruction of all chemical weapons. All weapons - biological, chemical, missile, nuclear were destroyed.
But he says much more than that in those transcripts. A summary is provided here. (http://middleeastreference.org.uk/kamel.html)
Kamel specifically discussed the significance of anthrax, which he portrayed as the "main focus" of the biological programme (pp.7-8). Smidovich asked Kamel: "were weapons and agents destroyed?"
Kamel replied: "nothing remained".
He confirmed that destruction took place "after visits of inspection teams. You have important role in Iraq with this. You should not underestimate yourself. You are very effective in Iraq." (p.7)
Kamel added: "I made the decision to disclose everything so that Iraq could return to normal." (p. eight)
Furthermore, Kamel describes the elimination of prohibited missiles: "not a single missile left but they had blueprints and molds for production. All missiles were destroyed." (p. eight)
On VX, Kamel claimed: "they put it in bombs during last days of the Iran-Iraq war. They were not used and the programme was terminated." (p.12).
Ekeus asked Kamel: "did you restart VX production after the Iran-Iraq war?"
Kamel replied: "we changed the factory into pesticide production. Part of the establishment started to produce medicine [...] We gave insturctions [sic] not to produce chemical weapons." (p.13).
Yet, Bush, Blair and others used Kamel as a reference for proving that there were WMD in Iraq.
I think it is clear that Iraq's "restarted program" was never really anything.
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So, do you believe that the Spetsnaz went into Iraq and moved thousands of tons of WMD to Syria?
Got no idea, but I won't dismiss it out of hand, either. Plane has a point, what happened to the chemicals that he was known to have for which is there is no trace of their reduction? And if Saddam had indeed complied, why was he still denying access to various sites right up until the UN inspection team was pulled out?
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So, do you believe that the Spetsnaz went into Iraq and moved thousands of tons of WMD to Syria?
Got no idea, but I won't dismiss it out of hand, either. Plane has a point, what happened to the chemicals that he was known to have for which is there is no trace of their reduction? And if Saddam had indeed complied, why was he still denying access to various sites right up until the UN inspection team was pulled out?
I guess we should ask him... ;)
Probably the same reason the UN didn't immediately make Kamel's interview testimony known. It was a game of chess, where they were trying to get Saddam to give up more information than he had already.
You cannot just hide thousands of tons of biological and chemical weapons, nor can you move it with ease and have Syria hide it as though it never existed. Even if the Russians had the greatest special forces known to history, they cannot defy physics and neither can Hussein.
To believe in what y'all are suggesting requires that the United States and United Kingdom (and others) are complete morons and that Saddam Hussein suddenly became an unbelievably competent miracle worker (a talent he's never displayed before).
I tend to think that Kamel was probably correct and the weapons simply never existed and were all destroyed.
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I tend to think that Kamel was probably correct and the weapons simply never existed and were all destroyed.
how can you destroy something that never existed?
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I tend to think that Kamel was probably correct and the weapons simply never existed and were all destroyed.
how can you destroy something that never existed?
:P
You knew what I meant.
I tend to think that Kamel was probably correct and the weapons simply never existed or were all destroyed.