Spinning the Exit Polls Early
The RNC just sent out detailed talking points about how unreliable exit polls have been over the past several elections. The key arguments are that exits polls typically have a Democratic bias and have wrongly predicted Democratic victories in recent years.
According to a source, the RNC expects leaked exit polls to show Democratic victories and do not want the news to discourage Republican voters from going to the polls late in the day.
http://www.politicalwire.com/Sure, they say they're trying to encourage Reps to come out but come on, they are just telling everyone that the exit polls are unsound so that when they steal the elections, people on the right (that cultish 35% that includes sirs) will be pre-disposed to start in about how polls are unsound and they'll convince themselves that the media was just hyping the Dems to demoralize the right. (When it could easily be stated that the media has been hyping the Dems so that people on the left will think its in the bag and they really don't have to go out and vote.)
I'm sure there are going to be shockers and very suspicious wins. I expect Senator ManDog will win his race even though all polls show he is down by 10 to 20 points.
By the way, Markos Moulitsas made his predictions.
I hope he's right about Tennessee.
http://www.dailykos.com/Prediction thread
by kos
Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 11:32:05 AM CST
Here are my predictions. Note, for the record, that I've been way off on my predictions the past two cycles. So there's no particular wisdom or inside knowledge or track record to give these predictions any more weight than anyone else's. They're just for fun.
HOUSE (231 R - 202 D)
15 seats gives us Speaker Nancy Pelosi and a fierce battle between John Murtha and Steny Hoyer for House Majority Leader.
24 seat pickup if there's no wave, which I think is the likelier outcome.
36 seat pickup if there is a wave.
Shocker upset: There are several candidates to choose from -- ID-01, WA-05, NE-03, and CO-05 all qualify, and are all surprisingly winnable races in solidly Republican districts. But my shocker upset pick is Gary Trauner in the Wyoming at-large seat.
SENATE (55 R - 45 D)
I'm trying not to be too optimistic, but I'm seeing a 6-seat gain in the Senate. Pickups in bold.
Minnesota: 15-point Klobuchar (D) win
Michigan: 13-point Stabenow (D) win
Washington: 12-point Cantwell (D) win
New Jersey: 10-point Menendez (D) win
Pennsylvania: 10-point Casey (D) win
Ohio: 8-point Brown (D) win
Maryland: 7-point Cardin (D) win
Rhode Island: 6 -point Whitehouse (D) win
Montana: 4-point Tester (D) win
Virginia: 4-point Webb (D) win
Missouri: 1-point McCaskill (D) win
Arizona: 5-point Kyl (R) win
Tennessee: 8-point Corker (R) win
Nevada: 10-point Ensign (R) win
Of these, I'm least comfortable with the Missouri call. While polling shows the race tied (or the tiniest McCaskill lead), the GOP ground game has been traditionally better in Missouri. Have the Democrats made progress? I haven't gotten a good read on that (as opposed to states like Virginia, Montana and Nebraska), so I can't tell. This one will be decided by the better ground game.
Shocker upset: Republican Steele in Maryland was a strong candidate for my shocker upset pick, but I'm having a hard time seeing Indigo Blue Maryland send a Republican to the Senate. So I'll go with Arizona. Kyl is likely to win, but there's been late movement in Pederson's (D) direction.
And what about Connecticut? I'll probably live to regret it, but I've bought the hype of Lamont's ground operation and excitement. And I'm convinced that pollsters have no idea how to poll a three-way race with the dynamics we're seeing in Connecticut. So I'm going to go with Lamont by the thinnest of margins over Lieberman -- 43.1-42.9, with Schlesinger picking up 14 percent of the vote.
GOVERNOR (28 R - 22 D)
I'm seeing a 8-seat gain in governorships. Pickups in bold.
New York: 30-point Spitzer (D) win
Massachusetts: 24-point Patrick (D) win
Ohio: 20-point Strickland (D) win
Colorado: 14-point Ritter (D) win
Arkansas: 10-point Beebe (D) win
Illinois: 10-point Blagojevich (D) win
Michigan: 10-point Granholm (D) win
Wisconsin: 8-point Doyle (D) win
Oregon: 7-point Kulongoski (D) win
Maryland: 6-point O'Malley (D) win
Maine: 6-point Baldacci (D) win
Minnesota: 4-point Hatch (D) win
Iowa: 3-point Culver (D) win
Alaska: 2-point Knowles win
Nevada: 3-point Gibbons (R) win
Idaho: 4-point Otter (R) win
Rhode Island: 7-point Carcieri (R) win
Florida: 8-point Crist (R) win
California: 12-point Schwarzenegger (R) win
I'm probably being a bit optimistic in Alaska, but Knowles has erased a huge deficit in the last month and has a tested and effective ground operation (especially in the most remote parts of his vast state).
Shocker upset: Nevada is a strong candidate, with Gibbons suddenly weighed down by scandal. But I'll go with Idaho, where Democrat Jerry Brady has run neck and neck in the polls with his Republican opponent Rep. Butch Otter.
----
One last point -- there's never been an election in which one party failed to pick up a seat from the opposition in the House. Even in the 1994 blowout, Democrats picked up three Republican seats.
Yet this year there's a strong possibility that this may happen not just in the House, and not just the Senate as well, but in governorships as well.
The Republicans have only three legitimate pickup opportunities in the House -- IL-08, and in the just-redistricted GA-08, and GA-12. In the governorships, their best chances are in Maine, Oregon, and Wisconsin. And in the Senate, their best chances is pretty much just Maryland.
I think they'll get shut out completely, but if they may any gains, it'll be one of those two Georgia seats.
