Keeping the Genie in the Bottle

[Michael Tee]

This guy was written up very favourably in the New Yorker magazine, about (I'm guessing) maybe a year ago or less.  He's serious and taken very seriously by professionals in the field.

http://www.mphpa.org/classic/BK/coster-mullen-book.htm

The theoretical knowledge of how the atomic bomb works has been around for a long time, at least since 1945.  The practical knowledge of how to build a working Fat Man is available, inter alia, in Coster-Mullen's book.  I realize that there has been a lot of progress in nuclear weapons technology since Fat Man, but I bet to your average "terrorist," a working and portable or modular Fat Man would be the Holy Grail.

Impossible to keep the nuclear genie in the bottle.

I think the Israeli policy of assassinating nuclear scientists is childish and futile.  Knowledge is never killed off.  Professors leave notes, reports and students, collaborators and disciples.  I question whether the scientists assassinated (a) were even assassinated by Israelis or (b) were valuable working contributors to a Persian Bomb.  You could assume that valuable contributors to such an important project would be isolated and/or guarded by their government.  These could be either victims of some Iranian government feud, traitors who needed to be taught a lesson or otherwise insignificant (except to their families and friends)  "trophy victims" meant to demonstrate the "all-powerful" reach of the Mossad to doubting Thomases.  Indeed, I can't help thinking, if they were so valuable to an Iranian bomb, why were they so loosely guarded?

[sirs]

...and there's Tee, all the while, hoping upon hope, that both America gets its butt kicked by Islamic terrorists (maybe a few more buildings could be brought down.  Perhaps even thousands more in death, than even 911 wrought), and that Israel gets a nuke right up their arse, courtesy of President Ahmanutjob

Oh the glee, he might get.  Perhaps even get a warm tingly feeling down his leg.

[Christians4LessGvt]

...and there's Tee, all the while, hoping upon hope, that both America gets its butt kicked by Islamic terrorists (maybe a few more buildings could be brought down.  Perhaps even thousands more in death, than even 911 wrought), and that Israel gets a nuke right up their arse, courtesy of President Ahmanutjob. Oh the glee, he might get.  Perhaps even get a warm tingly feeling down his leg.

Then SIRS this will not please Michael Tee! OBAMA sending Carrier Strike Group just to say "Howdy"!...LOL

Petraeus: Iran's nuclear infrastructure can be bombed

DEBKAfile Special Report

January 11, 2010, 10:14 AM (GMT+02:00)

 
USS Dwight D. Eisenhower arrives

The deployment in the Middle East of the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier strike group in the first week of January adds muscle to the words of Gen. David Petraeus, CENTCOM commander, on Jan 10 that Iranian nuclear infrastructure, albeit strengthened against attack with enhanced underground tunnels, wasn't fully protected.

"Well, they certainly can be bombed," he said to CNN. "The level of effect would vary with who it is that carries it out, what ordnance they have and what capability they can bring to bear."

This judgment contradicts recent US media estimates that Iran's nuclear facilities buried deep in fortified tunnels are now protected against air or missile strikes.

Declining to comment on the likelihood of an Israeli strike, Gen. Petraeus said there was still time for diplomacy, but pointed out: "It would be almost literally irresponsible if Centcom were not to have been thinking about 'what ifs' and making plans for a whole variety of different contingencies."

DEBKAfile's military sources add: CENTCOM was substantially beefed up by the USS Eisenhower carrier which President Barack Obama deployed in the New Year to the Persian Gulf and Mediterranean in support of the US Fifth and Sixth Fleets. He ordered this six-month deployment, the first since he took office a year ago, in view of the rising tensions around Yemen and Iran.

The Eisenhower carries eight air squadrons on its decks.

Air Wing Seven is made up of four fighter-bomber squadrons, a squadron each of early-warning surveillance, electronic warfare and tactical support aircraft and another of anti-submarine helicopters. Its strike force consists of the USS Hue City guided missile cruiser, and two guided missile destroyers, the USS McFaul, USS Farragut and USS Carney.

Obama said in a recent interview that he had not intention of sending US combat troops to the terrorist havens of Somalia and Yemen because "working with international partners is most effective at this point."

This statement ties in with pumping up America's naval and air strength in the two volatile regions to avoid sending in more boots on the ground which the US cannot afford at this time.

[Michael Tee]

And in case nobody here realizes this, aircraft carriers can be sunk.  By land-based missiles and by ship-to-ship missiles.

One day the schoolyard bully  WILL get its ass kicked.  I know that for a fact.

[sirs]

Like Clockwork.  At least Tee doesn't disappoint     

[Plane]

I have figured out a way to destroy an underground instalation no matter how deeply it is buried.


Who do I tell?

[Plane]

I think the Israeli policy of assassinating nuclear scientists is childish and futile. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerald_Bull



If the assassination of a key person werre to delay the deployment of a bomb for only six months , I imagine the Mossad thinking it worthwile.

[Michael Tee]

<<If the assassination of a key person werre to delay the deployment of a bomb for only six months , I imagine the Mossad thinking it worthwile.>>

Unless the Iranians are total idiots, they'd never let a key scientist run any risk of assassination and they'd arrange their affairs so that the assassination of any one guy wouldn't delay the project by six minutes, let alone six months.

If they didn't know that before, they sure as hell know it now.

[Plane]

Are you accuseing the Iranian govenment of idiocy?

If you are let me join you.

Refinerys would make a lot of sense and are cheaper.

What would it help to have a cupple of bombs if your enemy has more of them and is able to strangle your economy without useing them?

If they had refinerys it would be harder to cut the Iranian people and military off from gasoline and deisel fuel.

A few small well placed bombs would make all of Irans tank crews into infantry.

[Christians4LessGvt]

And in case nobody here realizes this, aircraft carriers can be sunk.  By land-based missiles and by ship-to-ship missiles. One day the schoolyard bully  WILL get its ass kicked.  I know that for a fact.

In case nobody realizes this, if a US Aircraft Carrier or other important naval vessels are sunk, those doing the sinking can get their ass kicked 1000 times worse....see Hiroshima and Nagasaki for evidence of ass kickings handed out to those silly enough to sink US Naval vessels. The Mullahs hide behind their proxies are not stupid enough to ever challenge the United States military directly in any serious manner...because they know if they do....they'll be vaporized.

[Michael Tee]

<<Are you accuseing the Iranian govenment of idiocy?>>

No, on the whole I'd say they're pretty smart.  I think it's more likely that they safeguard the nuclear scientists they really need than that they leave them open to Israeli, British or American assassins.  But they have some pretty dumb people in their government too.  Dumb and vicious.

<<Refinerys would make a lot of sense and are cheaper.>>

If I'm not mistaken, they don't have any refineries.

<<What would it help to have a cupple of bombs if your enemy has more of them . . . >>

Depends on who's better able to absorb a few nukes.  Does the U.S. government want to adopt a policy that would lead to even one nuke hitting a U.S. city?

<<and is able to strangle your economy without useing them?>>

Dream on, plane.  The simple fact is that the U.S. is not able to strangle the Iranian economy.  As a matter of fact, the U.S. is going to have its hands full keeping its own economy from fatally imploding.

[Plane]

<<Are you accuseing the Iranian govenment of idiocy?>>

No, on the whole I'd say they're pretty smart.  I think it's more likely that they safeguard the nuclear scientists they really need than that they leave them open to Israeli, British or American assassins.  But they have some pretty dumb people in their government too.  Dumb and vicious.

<<Refinerys would make a lot of sense and are cheaper.>>

If I'm not mistaken, they don't have any refineries.

<<What would it help to have a cupple of bombs if your enemy has more of them . . . >>

Depends on who's better able to absorb a few nukes.  Does the U.S. government want to adopt a policy that would lead to even one nuke hitting a U.S. city?

<<and is able to strangle your economy without useing them?>>

Dream on, plane.  The simple fact is that the U.S. is not able to strangle the Iranian economy.  As a matter of fact, the U.S. is going to have its hands full keeping its own economy from fatally imploding.

If they had refinerys it would be harder to cut the Iranian people and military off from gasoline and deisel fuel.

A few small well placed bombs would make all of Irans tank crews into infantry.

Are you pretending to misunderstand?

Haveing no refinerys , or even only a few is idiocy , the economy of Iran is half strangled already closeing off the access to fuel would not be hard .

  I grew up near a good target for Soviet missles we didn't back down from the USSR , and we didn't  use our A-bombs on them either.
A- bombs are not as usefull as they are expensive.

Do the people of Iran really want to get in a tossing match with someone who owns 40% of the rocks? They are not gonna be near 1% of the worlds a-bombs for years yet and that will be at a crippleing cost.

Other Islamists are getting on the nerves of the Russians now , between the US and the Russians we own 90% of the a-bombs.

What can Iran hope for, a magic delivery system that neaves no track back to the sorce?

[Michael Tee]

Are you pretending to misunderstand?

<<Haveing no refinerys , or even only a few is idiocy . . . >>

That is such a sweeping generality that it's meaningless.  There could be good reasons or no good reasons why Iraq doesn't have a refinery.  I bet if it doesn't have one, there are reasons for that and furthermore that if it's idiocy, it would have been an idiocy that went back to the Shah's time and even before then.

<< . . .  the economy of Iran is half strangled already >>

Where does that come from?  They're experiencing a downturn in the price of oil, the people in the streets of Tehran don't look like they're in rags, do they?

<<closeing off the access to fuel would not be hard .>>

Talk is cheap.  See what happens when you try it. 

 <<I grew up near a good target for Soviet missles we didn't back down from the USSR >>

No?  But a year after the Cuban missile crisis ended, all your Jupiter missiles came out of Turkey.  Coincidence, right?

<< and we didn't  use our A-bombs on them either.>>

Where do you think the U.S.S.R. would have been without their A-bombs?
A- bombs are not as usefull as they are expensive.

<<Do the people of Iran really want to get in a tossing match with someone who owns 40% of the rocks? They are not gonna be near 1% of the worlds a-bombs for years yet and that will be at a crippleing cost.>>

Yeah, it looks like they do.  They've seen what happens to countries which don't have nukes (Afghanistan, Iraq) and they've seen what doesn't happen to countries that do (like North Korea.)  The lessons are pretty clear.  The question you Americans should be asking yourselves is do YOU want to get in a tossing match with someone who owns 1% of the rocks?  My guess would be that one or two nuclear strikes on U.S. targets are more than you could bear, and total nuking of your adversary wouldn't faze them as much as the loss of a couple of your cities would faze you.  You are soft people and they are tough people.

<<Other Islamists are getting on the nerves of the Russians now , between the US and the Russians we own 90% of the a-bombs.>>

You're also getting on the nerves of the Russians.  Maybe they'll decide that the U.S. is the bigger threat and make nice with the Islamists so they can concentrate their attention on the Great Satan and leave the Big Brown Bear alone.

<<What can Iran hope for, a magic delivery system that neaves no track back to the sorce?>>

Enough nukes to make the Great Satan turn its attention to weaker, more vulnerable targets.   A small but credible deterrent.

[BT]

You are soft people and they are tough people.

You really don't know Americans.

[Plane]

<<I grew up near a good target for Soviet missles we didn't back down from the USSR >>

No?  But a year after the Cuban missile crisis ended, all your Jupiter missiles came out of Turkey.  Coincidence, right?

<< and we didn't  use our A-bombs on them either.>>

Where do you think the U.S.S.R. would have been without their A-bombs?
A- bombs are not as usefull as they are expensive.

That is a good question.

I Imagine that if they had spent about half as much on defence and nothing on expantion that they would still be Soviet.
You know what happens to contries that spend too much on military , like North Korea? Their people starve to death .
What indeed happend to North Korea those fourty years that they were irritateing but Nuke free?