Author Topic: New Survey - Iraq Invasion Cost Over Half Million Iraqi Lives  (Read 6444 times)

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Michael Tee

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New Survey - Iraq Invasion Cost Over Half Million Iraqi Lives
« on: October 11, 2006, 08:29:11 AM »
This is a Jophns Hopkins study attributing about 30% of deaths to coalition forces but nevertheless a half million (more, actually) killed, mostly by gunfire, and all due to the invasion - -"gee thanks, America, it's sure worth all the "democracy" we're getting out of it.  We'll never miss those dead guys anyway, they were all losers."  Half a million Iraqi families and their sympathizers around the world now with more reason than ever to love America, which brought them "democracy" whether they wanted it or not.

Mucho

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Re: New Survey - Iraq Invasion Cost Over Half Million Iraqi Lives
« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2006, 12:41:11 PM »
Even the RW WSJ admits this destroys any good that might have come from our Iraq adventure.
We destroyed it in order so save it. Such a deal.


__________________________________
THE MORNING BRIEF (IN FULL)

War May Have Cost
Iraq 2.5% of Its People

By JOSEPH SCHUMAN
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL ONLINE

A new estimate of the death toll from the war in Iraq is so tragically vast it raises the question of whether the U.S.-led invasion and reworking of the country can ever be considered a success no matter how the conflict is resolved.

The study, to be published in Saturday's edition of the British medical journal the Lancet, finds that roughly 600,000 Iraqis have died in the violence. This number, produced by a team from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, represents "an additional 2.5% of Iraq's population [that] died above what would have occurred without conflict," the report says, according to The Wall Street Journal. It compares with a civilian casualty rate for May through August this year of 117 people a day, according to a U.S. military study; other tabulations that have pegged the amount of civilian fatalities at about 50,000 to more than 150,000; and President Bush's declaration 10 months ago that "30,000, more or less" have been killed during and since the invasion.

The study was produced by a survey of 1,849 Iraqi families in 47 neighborhoods across Iraq that were selected by population size rather than the level of violence. And, the New York Times notes, it is an estimate rather than a precise count, with a margin of error that ranges from 426,369 to 793,663 deaths. These numbers, over a three-year period, compare with Human Rights Watch's estimate of 250,000 to 290,000 people killed by Saddam Hussein's regime, the Journal adds. And the surveyors working for Johns Hopkins reported a steady increase in mortality since the invasion that accelerated in the past year, reflecting the uptick in violence already reported by the U.S. military, news media and civilian groups, the Washington Post says.

The numbers are sure to meet skepticism from supporters of the war and others. But even at the low range of the margin of error, they will surely inflame debate about the decision to go to war in Iraq -- especially at a time when the purported testing of a nuclear bomb by North Korea has renewed doubts about the Bush administration's targeting among the nations it designated as the "axis of evil." A host of books, reportage and congressional inquiries have portrayed an administration that relied on faulty intelligence that supported a scenario its most hawkish senior officials wanted to see: a looming threat from weapons of mass destruction. Supporting that argument was a vision to remake a more democratic Middle East, a theme more vociferously promoted by President Bush especially after the WMD threat proved fictional.

Newsweek's Christopher Dickey, in revisiting the axis-of-evil speech and the evolution of the Iraq, Iran and North Korean stories since then, suggests Iraq-war planners overlooked the importance of hard intelligence, one of the oldest axioms of combat as described by Sun Tzu in "The Art of War": "Advance knowledge cannot be gained from ghosts and spirits, inferred from phenomena, or projected from the measures of Heaven, but must be gained from men for it is the knowledge of the enemy's true situation." War, Mr. Dickey argues, "is not a metaphysical undertaking." In theory, the removal of Saddam Hussein may have been the best solution for the rogue nation of Iraq. But if these new civilian-casualty numbers are borne out, the war there may draw a new comparison to Vietnam, and an anonymous major's comment about the village of Ben Tre in 1968, that "It became necessary to destroy the town to save it."


* * * From an Email today.

Lanya

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Re: New Survey - Iraq Invasion Cost Over Half Million Iraqi Lives
« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2006, 01:20:47 PM »
Thanks for posting this, Michael.
Here's another article today from LA Times on same subject.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-iraqdead11oct11,1,3777236.story?coll=la-headlines-world

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domer

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Re: New Survey - Iraq Invasion Cost Over Half Million Iraqi Lives
« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2006, 02:07:06 PM »
And it doesn't look like it's going to get any better, objectively speaking. These dire facts should rouse any human worth the name to reconsider options going forward. Among those options, which rationally should not include "staying the course," we must consider taking a "defeat" in Iraq, something less than a full-functioning democracy, and ponder how we can win the overall struggle with radical, violent Islamic extremists without that plum in our basket.

I must add, under the "Pottery Barn Theory" popularized by Colin Powell, that "if you break it, you own it," much serious thought and agonizing must be given to which course NOW (despite all the screw-ups) not only will advance our long-term interests, but from a basic humanitarian standpoint will present the best chance of saving lives in the long run.

Mucho

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Re: New Survey - Iraq Invasion Cost Over Half Million Iraqi Lives
« Reply #4 on: October 11, 2006, 02:55:48 PM »
And this proves without a doubt that the Lancet report is true:
Bush Says 655,000 Civilian Deaths in Iraq 'Not Credible'
President Bush said a study showing 655,000 Iraqis have died in violence since the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq is not credible.

--CNN

The_Professor

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Re: New Survey - Iraq Invasion Cost Over Half Million Iraqi Lives
« Reply #5 on: October 11, 2006, 03:36:39 PM »
This does not surprise me. I was never in favor of this incursion and I sincerely wish we would get out soon. Barring a landslide by the Dems in November, however, I simply do not believe it will happen. The neocons are in control and interventionist policies will continue.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2006, 04:06:37 PM by The_Professor »

Michael Tee

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Re: New Survey - Iraq Invasion Cost Over Half Million Iraqi Lives
« Reply #6 on: October 11, 2006, 03:52:32 PM »
What really rankles my ass is that by all objective standards the invasion of Iraq was not a mistake but a crime.  A crime with massive and horrific consequences that are finally being added up.  This is the very same crime that Nazi war criminals were hanged for at Nuremburg - - planning and waging a war of unjustified aggression.

 We have a bunch of  - - your choice - -  total fucking idiots ("ooops, sorry!  we thought you were hiding WMD on us")  or (b) calculating criminals. 

WHAT is the penalty that will be imposed on them? 600,000 die and they walk off into the sunset?

BT

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Re: New Survey - Iraq Invasion Cost Over Half Million Iraqi Lives
« Reply #7 on: October 11, 2006, 03:59:24 PM »
http://www.iraqbodycount.org/

Min       Max
43850  48693

The_Professor

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Re: New Survey - Iraq Invasion Cost Over Half Million Iraqi Lives
« Reply #8 on: October 11, 2006, 04:09:07 PM »
MT, I believe you are wrong.

The invasion itself was an icnredible success. Quick voctory, few American losses.

The occupation afterwards, however, is ineffective, inefficient and possibly many other terms I could use, but for propriety sake, will not.

I see it as being two distinct phases. One was successful and the other, so far at least, is not.

Michael Tee

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Re: New Survey - Iraq Invasion Cost Over Half Million Iraqi Lives
« Reply #9 on: October 11, 2006, 04:10:09 PM »
Thanks, BT.  from the website of Iraq Body Count

 http://www.iraqbodycount.org/#position

<<We are not a news organization ourselves and like everyone else can only base our information on what has been reported so far. What we are attempting to provide is a credible compilation of civilian deaths that have been reported by recognized sources. Our maximum therefore refers to reported deaths - which can only be a sample of true deaths unless one assumes that every civilian death has been reported. It is likely that many if not most civilian casualties will go unreported by the media. That is the sad nature of war.>>

Michael Tee

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Re: New Survey - Iraq Invasion Cost Over Half Million Iraqi Lives
« Reply #10 on: October 11, 2006, 04:25:25 PM »
Professor, with all due respect, I don't think you can separate the invasion from the occupation.  However you want to divide it up, it's all the product of the same criminal group and with the same tragic results. 

600,000 dead in a nation of about 24 million I make out to be 2.5%.  If the population of the U.S.A. is 280 million more or less, 2.5% of the population would be 6 million dead. 

What kind of "success" would it be for the U.S.A. to undergo regime change, even if it meant dumping a dictator and returning democracy, let alone if they got what the Iraqis got, dumping a dictator and bringing in anarchy?  Anarchy which, BTW, will NEVER result in democracy but only the triumph of one dicator and his faction over the rest of the country - - pretty much another Saddam Hussein.

This whole thing is an unmitigated disaster, and only somebody with a Neanderthal brain the size of a pea would not be able to see that now.  My concern is what will happen to the criminals who orchestrated this disaster?  Even if one were so lamebrained as to believe their obviously bullshit excuses ("we really, really believed there were WMD hidden in the sand") it was still no excuse for a war of aggression and was totally contrary to the Charter of the United Nations, to which the U.S. was a signatory and as such, legally bound to observe. This goes WAY beyond impeachment.  This is a crime that cries out for an international war crimes trial and the death penalty if convicted.

Lanya

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Re: New Survey - Iraq Invasion Cost Over Half Million Iraqi Lives
« Reply #11 on: October 11, 2006, 04:34:01 PM »
Responding to Michael, I think:

Via Juan Cole:
[]
I follow the violence in Iraq carefully and daily, and I find the results plausible.

First of all, Iraqi Muslims don't believe in embalming or open casket funerals days later. They believe that the body should be buried by sunset the day of death, in a plain wooden box. So there is no reason to expect them to take the body to the morgue. Although there are benefits to registering with the government for a death certificate, there are also disadvantages. Many families who have had someone killed believe that the government or the Americans were involved, and will have wanted to avoid drawing further attention to themselves by filling out state forms and giving their address.

Personally, I believe very large numbers of Iraqi families quietly bury their dead without telling the government of all people anything about it. Another large number of those killed is dumped in the Tigris river by their killers. A fisherman on the Tigris looking for lunch recently caught the corpse of a woman. The only remarkable thing about it is that he let it be known to the newspapers. I'm sure the Tigris fishermen throw back unwanted corpses every day.
[]
http://www.juancole.com/       Wednesday, October 11, 2006
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Michael Tee

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Re: New Survey - Iraq Invasion Cost Over Half Million Iraqi Lives
« Reply #12 on: October 11, 2006, 04:47:00 PM »
It's just common sense. 

They also live in a culture of revenge.  If someone kills a member of your family and you go and bitch about it to the authorities, you've just made yourself Suspect No. 1 when the guy you think is responsible meets with an unfortunate accident.

BT

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Re: New Survey - Iraq Invasion Cost Over Half Million Iraqi Lives
« Reply #13 on: October 11, 2006, 05:45:06 PM »
IBC defends:

5  There are no "gross errors" that IBC needs to correct
2  IRAQ BODY COUNT REFUSES TO RESPOND Media Lens, 14 March, 2006.
[close]60  See Appendix 5.a. for a case where Media Lens take credit for "(limited) progress" on a BBC web page produced in collaboration with IBC. The carefully-worded caveats on the web page were in place one month before the first Media Lens "Alert" on IBC.
[close]61  "IBC : "concessions" to critics, begrudgingly, and by stealth, but little clarity." Media Lens message post by "bern", March 30, 2006.
[close]63  On Iraq Body Count, Section 6.0 Geneva, February 17, 2006. Online version released March 15, 2006.
[close]64  See sections 7 and 8 of IBC editorial, Feb 2004.
[close]In one of their "Alerts", Media Lens Editors David Cromwell and David Edwards state:

It is remarkable that IBC - a deeply flawed website - has acquired this kind of reputation among journalists. In a recent article for the website AlterNet, Les Roberts wrote that the estimate of 20,000 to 30,000 civilian deaths commonly cited in the American press are too low, "most likely by a factor of five or ten"...

Only one conclusion can be drawn: that the journalists citing the IBC figures have not studied the IBC database and so have not seen the massive bias and gaps in reported deaths.

There is another conclusion that can be drawn: that our critics have failed to see the biases and gaps in the positions which they so confidently promote as certain truth, and which would have easily been revealed by the exercise of some of that "professional rigour" which they assume is absent from the work of those they criticise. A less partisan and loaded approach to IBC might also have allowed them to enter into a constructive debate with us rather than a destructive public confrontation.

IBC's work is not perfect, and neither is our website. We started our work with little conception of what would be involved, and no idea that our work would intensify continuously over the three years our project has been in existence. Our small volunteer workforce has been constantly taxed by the relentless inflow of press and media reports that need to be scanned, archived and analysed, twenty four hours a day, seven days a week.

In the gaps between our basic tasks, we do what we can to update, improve, and explain our work, through the editorial content on our website, and in some cases, in direct cooperation with news organizations, guiding them on how to appropriately present IBC and its numbers.

But this non-urgent work has always had to take second place to our primary data gathering tasks, and the continual updating of the database.

We cannot be held responsible for every misunderstanding or misuse of our data, deliberate or otherwise, given the hundreds if not thousands of sources that continue to use it. It lies well beyond the power of IBC to prevent politicians from lying, pundits from spinning the facts, or journalists from missing a qualifier about our work. Nor, quite obviously, can we prevent external web pages which don't use our live-updating web counters from carrying out-dated IBC data. But we do at least try not to misunderstand or misrepresent it ourselves, and use careful phrasing in our communications and interviews to avert this where possible. The same cannot be said of some of our critics, as we have shown.

One example of the failure of our critics to check their facts comes in recent bouts of self-congratulation in which they take credit for "concessions" forced from IBC in the wording of our website and web counters "begrudgingly" emphasising that our numbers refer to reported civilian deaths. In fact the features they refer to have all been in place, unchanged, since 2003 and 2004.

Another example of failure to check basic facts comes in defamatory insinuations that we do not use non-Western or "Iraqi/Arab" media sources because of racist bias that means we don't consider them "credible". Yet even a quick glance at our sources list reveals that we use many English-language versions of non-Western media sources on the Web. (Perhaps our critics have failed to notice that even relatively small non-Western media communicate regularly and effectively in English.)

A disturbing lack of care also infects the tactics and goals of Media Lens and its allies. It is "remarkable" indeed that IBC, the only organisation providing a continuing tally of Iraqi deaths, should be targeted and pressured to cease operation by members of a pressure group which aligns itself with the peace movement, just as post-war violence reaches unprecedented levels.

The purpose of this article has largely been to dispel myths and rumours fed by a misconceived campaign that cannot countenance the possibility that a media-based project like IBC's could provide anything but a distortion of reality, rather than — as a more sensible assessment might have it — a valuable if incomplete insight into it. We earlier summed up the scope of that insight in a few brief words in a presentation given to fellow researchers into conflict-related mortality and estimation methods:

Assuming even the most pessimistic outturn for violent civilian deaths, our database must include a substantial proportion of all victims, certainly not less than 25%, probably significantly more than half.
John Sloboda and Hamit Dardagan, "On Iraq Body Count", Section 6.0.
There is some value in integrating incomplete or imprecise information from a variety of sources. For the moment, that is the best that can be done. But this is no substitute for the properly funded, original research that will be required to arrive at a full accounting of the human cost of the "military solution" for Iraq. If the deaths of the victims of 9-11 can be honoured by the most complete listing possible, then why not the deaths of the victims of the Iraq war?

In the meantime, pointing to differences between the existing inadequate studies in order to assert the superiority of one method and one study over others is the least productive activity that can take place.

When fundamental flaws in our analyses or interpretations are brought to our attention, we do, of course, attempt to prioritise their correction. However, we have demonstrated in this article that our critics have established no serious errors which require the kind of urgent action which they demand. Nor does anything we have done merit the charge that we are "amateurs", a charge that has been freely broadcast in an attempt to discredit our work and the individual members of our team. The details of these further unsavoury developments are footnoted for those who care to track them.

We will continue to improve our web site, as and when we are able, and taking into account all valid criticism. But we will not do this based on the priorities and timescale demanded by uninformed and histrionic critics.

http://www.iraqbodycount.org/editorial/defended/5.php

A couple years ago, it was the Lancet publishing inflated figure. Now we have your study being making suspicious claims using the same methodology.

Plane

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Re: New Survey - Iraq Invasion Cost Over Half Million Iraqi Lives
« Reply #14 on: October 11, 2006, 06:04:11 PM »
What was the census method used to find the number of killed Iriquis?


If our war in Iraq has killed a half million , counting all the deaths caused directly and indirectly by the war , includeing the few thousand we wanted to kill and the thousands more killed while supporting us , then we have seen a quarter as many killed as Saddam is responsible for , that number being two million.


If Saddams past sins were not enough reason to invade , his unrepentant attitude and ambition to do even more were worse.