| | The White House is placing a giant collective bet on Gruber's "assumptions" to justify key portions of the Senate bill such as the "Cadillac tax," which they allowed people to believe was independent verification. Now that we know that Gruber's work was not that of an independent analyst but rather work performed as a contractor to the White House and paid for by taxpayers, and economists like Larry Mishel are raising serious questions about its validity, it should be made publicly available so others can judge its merits.
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How did the feedback loop work? Well, take Gruber's appearance before the Senate HELP Committee on November 2, 2009, for which he used his microsimulation model to make calculations about small business insurance coverage. On the same day, Gruber released an analysis of the House health care bill, which he sent to Ezra Klein of the Washington Post. Ezra published an excerpt.
White House blogger Jesse Lee then promoted both Gruber's Senate testimony and Ezra Klein's article on the White House blog. "We thought it would all be a little more open and transparent if we went ahead and published what our focus will be for the day" he said, pointing to Gruber's "objective analysis." The "transparent" part apparently stopped when everyone got to Gruber's contractual relationship to the White House, which nobody in the three-hit triangle bothered to disclose.
But that was child's play compared to the effort that went into selling Gruber's analysis of the bill unveiled by the Senate on Wednesday, November 18. Two days later on Friday November 20, Gruber published a paper entitled "Impacts of the Senate High Cost Insurance Excise Tax on Wages: Updated," claiming that the excise tax would result in wage hikes of $234 billion from 2013 through 2019.
And it was off to the races.
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On November 30th, Krugman wrote about the CBO report, relying on Gruber's analysis. He, too, concluded it was "good news for reform advocates." That same day, Harry Reid took to the floor of the Senate that same day, saying "just a few days ago an MIT economist -- one of the nation's foremost economists -- a man by the name of Jonathan Gruber, analyzed our bill and concluded it will help Americans pay less and get more."
Reid read from the piece on the floor of the Senate, saying that it provided substantiation from Gruber "who is one of the most respected economists in the world" that the Senate bill would reduce the deficit. Nancy Pelosi touted "the Gruber analysis" on the Speaker's website.
On December 3, Kathleen Sebelius released a statement on the "Benefits of Health Insurance Reform for Businesses." She substantiated claims made in the statement by citing Gruber's November 3 testimony before the HELP Committee, and his November 5 paper. No mention that he was a contractor to HHS.
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On December 28, Gruber published an Op-Ed in the Washington Post -- in which he neglected to mention his contract to consult with the White House on this very issue. He was asked point-blank if he had any contracts related to the piece for which he was being paid, and he said "no." The Post subsequently published a correction.
And just last week, John Kerry -- author of the Cadillac Tax provision of the Senate bill -- writing in The Hill cited Gruber's work alone as the authority for the claim that the excise tax would result in increased wages. Did Kerry, as author of that part of the Senate bill, work with Gruber to craft it too? He doesn't say.
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What was Gruber's role in crafting the Senate bill? Nobody will say. Is he in effect grading his own work when he praises the bill? We don't know. What we do know is that the White House engaged an expert who was quite likely to reach the conclusions he reached, because he'd been making similar claims for years. And they worked hard to promote his work as independent validation of their plan, when in fact he was an integral part of it. | |
