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Messages - Michael Tee

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76
3DHS / Re: Cain passes lie detector test
« on: November 11, 2011, 02:08:42 PM »
<<Becasue your girl has a 95% likelyhood of having lied about her specific accusation, regarding Cain, while Cain has the polar opposite of having very likely been telling the truth. >>

95% my ass.  Only according to junk science and the quacks who practice it.  According to the judges who run all of your Federal courts, all of the state courts, all of the Canadian Federal courts and all Canadian provincial courts, these Rube Goldberg contraptions aren't even good enough to get inside the courtroom door.  That means all the judges of all 63 English- and French-speaking court systems in North America have rejected it as junk science.

<<But go right ahead and hang your hat on her rather unbelievable acount>>

Nothing unbelievable in her account at all, it's unfortunately the kind of story that happens every day.  What doesn't happen every day is that four different women on the same payroll will come forward and each one of the four will maliciously fabricate a false accusation against the CEO of sexual harassment.  Why didn't it happen to Mitt Romney, for example?  Why did Herm the Perv change his story four times in the first two days if he didn't have something to cover up?  It's HIS story that's "rather unbelievable" - - a "coincidence" of four different women all cooking up the same allegations about the same guy (or a "conspiracy" to do so) and a supposedly intelligent guy who can't keep his story straight until after he lawyers up - - either way, show me just ONE CEO who's been victimized by such a coincidence or such a conspiracy. Never happens.  The guy is just plain guilty.

But go right ahead and hang your hat on junk science that's been rejected by every single court in your country and mine.  If you build it (a house made entirely of bullshit) they will come.


77
3DHS / Re: US Soldier Found Guilty in Afghan Thrill-Killings
« on: November 11, 2011, 01:56:21 PM »
<<Of course I do [believe that the police force is already an armed menace which requires an armed defence by the citizenry]>>

<<Do you have unrealistic expectations of the Police?>>

I don't think it's unrealistic to expect that only a tiny minority will ever use their weapons or even their fists in an unjustified attack on innocent civilians.

<<A very strong majority of police are decent, and a very strong majority of soldiers are too.
<<A very strong majority of the public is also decent .
<<Of these three which should be helpless against the other two?>>

I see where you're headed, but I don't think a victim of police abuse is "helpless" as long as there are good lawyers ready to take on bad cops.

But I'd really like to you set me straight on this:  where's the difference between Second Amendment guys like you and sheer anarchists?

78
3DHS / Re: Cain passes lie detector test
« on: November 11, 2011, 01:06:00 PM »
<<If XO had read the article he would have seen that Bielek failed this lie detector test. When she made her accusations against Cain, the machine read high risk, which means there is a 95% chance that she was lying.>>

The problem here, and one of the main reasons such evidence is not accepted in ANY court in the U.S.A. or Canada, even in civil matters, is that what the machine "reads" and then interprets, is only as good as what the machine is programmed to read and interpret.  And so far, nobody has developed any algorithm that can teach the machine to distinguish between possible causes behind the indicators of measurable degrees of stress that it is able to detect.  In fact, technically what the machine detects is aberrant values or patterns in measurable physiological phenomena; it is only an assumption that such aberrancies are in fact indicators of underlying stress, let alone what kind of stress is producing the aberrant values or patterns.  That's why it's "junk science" and that's why no court of law will even admit it into evidence.

The "95% accuracy" label is pure hooey - - firstly because the term is never defined, and in all probability would relate only to accuracy in finding measurable indicators of stress related to specific questions, NOT to accuracy in assigning an underlying cause to the "stress" allegedly detected; and secondly because the "95%" figure itself comes from  the proponents of the machines, not from independent research organizations, which have routinely blasted such devices as basically unreliable.  Obviously, if the machine really were "95% accurate" in detecting liars, there is no way on earth that it would be banned in all 50 state courts, all 11 provincial courts as well as in all federal courts of both Canada and the U.S.A.  These courts have accepted all kinds of scientific evidence, from fingerprints to ballistics to breath analysis to DNA but every single God-damned one of them has refused to admit lie detector evidence of any nature or kind whatsoever.  The simple reason for this is that nobody to date has ever been able to make a reliable lie-detector that was not pure junk science.

All of your and sirs' obstinate repetition of the supposed virtues of these things run smack into the solid wall  of fact that you cannot avoid:  if they were REALLY "95% accurate," no court would refuse them.  In actual fact, ALL courts refuse them.  You can keep banging your heads against that wall for the rest of the 21st century if you like, but that wall will still be standing long after your heads will have burst.

79
3DHS / Re: Cain's speech
« on: November 11, 2011, 09:24:39 AM »
<<Oh the irony.>>

Oh, the emptiness.  Oh the failure to address even one argument, even one fact , in a post packed with both. 

Oh the hypocrisy of someone who claims time and again that the "facts" are missing, that the "facts" are kryptonite, but when presented with facts, runs from them as if they were . . . well, Kryptonite.

OTOH, sirs, maybe you SHOULD stick to your meaningless, pathetic, empty, transparent one-liners and spare yourself further embarrassment.

80
3DHS / Re: Cain passes lie detector test
« on: November 11, 2011, 09:11:22 AM »
The real sign that it's all sham was when Herm the Perv "challenged" his victims to take a polygraph if he did.  The little piece of shit obviously knew that he could beat the machine with coaching or by paying off the operator, or he wouldn't have risked exposure to further humiliation.  This is a great story, and with Gloria Allred at the helm now, it ain't going away anytime soon, barring a major outbreak of war somewhere.  That schmuck that Cain hired not only is no match for Allred, but he's already got himself in hot water for attempting to threaten other victims of Cain against coming forward.  He's a fucking disgrace to the legal profession - - even Forbes magazine had to reprimand the ass-hole.  Hopefully, his state bar association will have something to say on this as well.

81
3DHS / Re: US Soldier Found Guilty in Afghan Thrill-Killings
« on: November 11, 2011, 08:54:48 AM »
I didn't think it was either, but our disturbed friend sometimes has this knack of reading other posters' minds - - wrongly.

82
3DHS / Re: UK expects Israeli attack on Iran next month
« on: November 11, 2011, 08:48:10 AM »
I just recalled a story that I read in somebody's book about the First Gulf War, but I can't remember whose, except that I think he was in the U.S. military.  The Iraqis were launching missiles at Israel and the U.S. was trying to shoot them down.  The action was being followed by the Saudi military in a real-time radar room with graphic map displays. There was a tense silence in the room as they watched launches and intercepts.  Then the radar showed the first Iraqi rocket to breaki through the anti-missile defences and land on Israeli soil and suddenly the roomful of Saudi officers erupted in spontaneous cheering. 

The Saudis, like any other corrupt dictators anywhere, enjoy no immunity from the revolts of their angry military when their excesses lead them too far away from the wishes and values of the people whom they rule by brute force only.  We don't know how far discontent amongst anti-Israeli officers has gone, but again taking the role of the secret ally of the Jews and the Americans while other Arabs are trying to assert their own independence and dignity, just might be the last straw.

Although I think it's entirely feasible that the Saudis would assist an Israeli attack on Iran, I don't think the Israelis will attempt any such thing, but if they do, and the Saudis do provide them with any kind of logistic or other assistance, it will be interesting to see what this does for the stability of the Saudi regime.

83
3DHS / Re: Cain passes lie detector test
« on: November 11, 2011, 05:04:52 AM »
<<This isn't a court of law, Cain isn't on trial, criminally or civilly, the policy being referenced has a 95% success rate.>>

You must be smoking some powerful weed that is not available up here.  If that thing really had a "95% success rate," it would be accepted as evidence in every civil court in Canada and the U.S.A., where the cases are decided on a simple "balance of probabilities," which means only that the plaintiff, to win, must present a case that is more likely than the defendant's, even if his case is only 51% more likely to be true than the defendant's.

The device's "success rate" will obviously depend to some extent on the skill of the operator.  Also, "95% success rate" is a term that nobody has defined  - - does it mean that in 95 tests out of 100, it has successfully identified test subjects who were not truth-tellers, in which case, I would strongly suspect that anyone so claiming would be a charlatan?  Or, as is more likely, does it simply mean that in 95 tests out of 100, it is able to successfully identify certain questions as productive of far more stress and anxiety than other questions?

 <<And right on "q", in the fleetest of moments, you attempted to combine both the trashing of the messenger . . .>>

Believe me, it was no problem to trash THIS messenger.  A simple Google of the name, combined with my standard policy of "Go to Wikipedia first," produced all the trash I needed on this idiot, probably the ONLY lawyer, practicing or not, who has described the retiring Justice David Souter, of the U.S. Supreme Court, as a "goat-fucking child molester," and the only "journalist" I can think of who admits in writing that his public opinions are tailored to fit whatever his bosses' public opinions are.  The ease of my trashing this guy's credibility, plus the fact that he's the ONLY writer so far to treat this polygraph-like technique as determinative of the credibility of any witness, via TV no less! should indicate to you, if nothing else does, that this stuff is junk science without even having to consider why two systems of Federal civil Courts, fifty systems of State civil Courts and eleven systems of Provincial civil Courts, do not accept evidence from these machines even as something to be argued over in court, even where the balance of proof required is a mere 51%.  This "messenger" ("mouthpiece" is obviously the more accurate description) had already fully discredited himself, even before I had even heard of him.

<<  via the "junk science" retort, with a completely irrelevant point about this not being admissible in court>>

What's "irrelevant" about it not being admissible in court when the very basis of its inadmissibility is the unreliability of its results in the civil courts of fifty States, eleven Provinces and two Federal governments?  It's banned from ALL of those courts, just like the opinions of fortune tellers, tea-leaf readers and phrenologists.  Against the unanimous opinions of the courts of 63 jurisdictions encompassing ALL of the courts of English- and French-speaking North America, you have chosen to rely instead on the opinion of that schmuck Erick Erickson? ? ?  Good luck widdat.

<<Both tactics I knew would be attempted, and you were so happy to jump right on in.>>

That's hilarious.  You expected me to trash the junk science of a junk scientist whose "evidence" no court will accept AND you expected me to trash the reputation of some sleazy right-wing dipshit, who's already trashed his OWN reputation right out of his own mouth?  Gee, sirs, what kind of a crystal ball do you have, anyway?

Finally, for anyone who against all logic is STILL determined to believe in this kind of poppycock, I suggest that you simply Google this question:  "Can you beat a polygraph" and you will get an overwhelming response, the gist of which is, "Yes, dummy, yes."  Selecting just one quote from the avalanche, I choose this little gem:

<<To determine whether polygraph exams have any validity, the National Research Council conducted a major study that was released in 2002. The 398-page report is easy to summarize: Polygraphs are baloney. The report found that lie detector exams are so subjective and undependable—are they really measuring deception, or just fear, for example—that they are inherently untrustworthy.>>

(from an article in Slate, found on the first page of the Google search that I just suggested)




84
3DHS / Re: US Soldier Found Guilty in Afghan Thrill-Killings
« on: November 11, 2011, 01:59:35 AM »
plane, far as you know, is anyone in here talking about Nixon or Vietnam, apart from our disturbed friend?

85
3DHS / Re: Cain passes lie detector test
« on: November 11, 2011, 01:48:16 AM »
<<Wern't you pointing out earlyer that this isn't in cort and the standards of Jurisprudence don't appl;y?>>

NO.  I think it's important that we try to be accurate in representing what is said in this forum.  I did not refer to "standards of Jurisprudence" but to the standards of the criminal law.  I was referring in particular to one standard of the criminal law, which was the presumption of innocence.  I said, or meant to say that the presumption of innocence does not apply in the civil courts and should not apply in our non-court settings, such as the campaign trail, the so-called "court of public opinion" or the way we arrive at daily decisions in our own lives.   To apply a criminal standard of proof in any such instances would be evidence of sheer insanity.

<<This is evidence, whether weak or strong, here it is.>>

Yes, you are right.  It IS evidence.  It is evidence so weak that no court, criminal or civil, in either Canada or the U.S.A., will even look at it, so prone is it to error.  They don't even want to have it introduced for lawyers and experts to argue over, because they know that even under expert scrutiny, it will be unable to produce any trustworthy conclusions.  This is not MY opinion, but the opinions of our respective Federal Courts, of fifty U.S.  State Supreme Courts and of 11 Provincial Supreme Courts here in Canada.  That's a pretty huge body of judicial opinion.  As evidence, polygraphs and similar machines are only one step above reading tea leaves.

<<In the court of Public opinion is the $15,000 software more convincing than the $40,000 woman?>>

Actually, it is the $40,000 woman who was the more convincing, since any court in our two respective countries would unhesitatingly admit her as a witness, whereas none of them would allow the evidence of that quack and his $15K software.  If the public were so abysmally ignorant as to be unaware of these facts, then the 15K software would indeed be the more convincing, but I am firmly convinced that not even the American public is that fucking dumb.  (That was an easy question to answer, although clearly the answer was not what you were expecting to hear.)

86
3DHS / Re: US Soldier Found Guilty in Afghan Thrill-Killings
« on: November 11, 2011, 01:29:18 AM »
Maybe before we get any further into a discussion about the need for an armed defence to our police forces, you could explain the difference to me again between a minimal-government,  small-c conservative and an anarchist?

87
3DHS / Re: Cain passes lie detector test
« on: November 11, 2011, 01:24:11 AM »
<<And yet 70 law enforcement agencies use this technology. . . . >>

Well, now that is the problem.  The law enforcement agencies are not entrusted with the determination of guilt or innocence in our respective countries' criminal courts nor with the determination of any issue in our respective countries' civil courts.  The courts and not the agencies of law enforcement are entrusted with assessing the reliability of all evidence, from the testimony of witnesses to the results of mechanical and other tests of all kinds.  And in their wisdom, they have decided that while they will listen to, and consider, the testimony of law enforcement officers and eye-witnesses and experts, they WILL NOT EVEN CONSIDER the results of polygraph tests or less-established techniques like this quack and his machines. 

Why not?  Because it's been shown time and again to be unreliable evidence.  End of story.

<< . . .  as a tool. >>

Sure, as a tool.  There are many examples of how this stuff could be useful as a tool.  Suppose a guilty suspect has told a hospital nurse named Emma Smith that he killed his wife.  Suppose the operator is reading off a list of names to the suspect and the needle goes haywire as soon as Emma Smith's name is mentioned.  The operator might not know why the needle went haywire, but he knows now that it might be a good idea to concentrate the investigation on Emma Smith for some as yet unknown reason.

Being useful as a tool does not translate into proof of guilt or innocence.  It's just a useful tool that can produce leads or close off dead-ends before too much time is wasted on them.

88
3DHS / Re: US Soldier Found Guilty in Afghan Thrill-Killings
« on: November 11, 2011, 01:07:31 AM »
I was speaking in pure hypotheticals, plane.

 Your remark ("Ahhh . . . now you get it.") seems to indicate that you believe the police force is already an armed menace that requires an armed self-defence.

89
3DHS / Re: Cain passes lie detector test
« on: November 11, 2011, 01:00:44 AM »
LOL.  Neither did your totally non-responsive response.

How would you feel if you were on trial for capital murder, and three eye-witnesses had already put you at the scene with a smoking gun in your hand and the victim's unarmed body still falling, and the D.A. asked the judge if he might just bolster his three eye-witnesses' testimony with an analysis provided by this quack  and his machine?

90
3DHS / Re: Kramer has been suspended for a week
« on: November 11, 2011, 12:54:59 AM »
<<Do we or don't we want an Umpire ?>>

Umpiring is a tough job.  The wrong call was made on Kramer, that's for sure.  He was amply provoked but then BSB says that the provocation was provoked.  Where does it end?  Why should the umpire or anyone else get involved in what is essentially two members' quarrel?  King Solomon probably couldn't get to the bottom of it.  We're all adults here, and the maxim "If you can't stand the heat . . . " should apply.

<<Is there a consensus to reach?>>

Well, God knows, you've tried.  If anyone can make a table in this format, I suggest anyone who wants to try to get a consensus just post a table with a row for each active posting member and a box in the row for suggestions on the need for an umpire.  IMHO the Ump's latest call on Kramer is a good indication of why we DON'T need an Ump.

<<I think we have already lost some members that just didn't like the incivility.>>

Fuck 'em if they can't stand the heat.

<< Civility is considered  optional? >>

Civility should be an ideal we all strive for, but since we're only human, some of us more so than others . . .

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