Author Topic: XO Investments II  (Read 3472 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Maccus Germanis

  • Guest
Re: XO Investments II
« Reply #15 on: May 06, 2008, 10:10:36 AM »
is it any more volatile than the price of oil?

The fund is based on the volatility of the commodity. Buying and selling short term contracts means that you never long own the commodity. The upside is that, if you believe in the talent of the fund managers, -which is the commodity that you invest in here- then they can also make money by shorting the commodity. This is a fund built on short term speculations. If, you believe in the speculators, then it doesn't matter what they buy and sell.

"If you are convinced that the commodity itself will continue a general upward trend,
then why not invest in the commodity, or a producer, directly?"

Because a single producer may go out of business?
All eggs in one basket not only in one commodity but also one producer?

Such is one of the few risks with which I am quite comfortable. My point was that rather than buying into the talent of someone else's ability to speculate, you may rather want to buy direct interest in the commodity that you seem to already speculate upon. Value funds with interest in oil and gas could give you the diversification that you seek, while still giving you interest in tangible assets.


"If the gas runs out, then you own pretty wall paper"
thats seems in some ways more "volatile"/scary than what I'm in?
The same could happen with the short term contracts that your fund does invest. My point was that a royalty fund was an investment in the commodity itself. Downturns in trading do not lessen the amount of gas, or oil, in which you would own interest. Only the actual extraction and sale of the commodity would lessen the value of your interest, and for that you would be paid distributions.

Christians4LessGvt

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11139
    • View Profile
    • "The Religion Of Peace"
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: XO Investments II
« Reply #16 on: May 07, 2008, 10:24:59 AM »
thanks maccus
are you saying a company like this is a "safer investment" than the oil ETF?


DVN  Devon Energy Corp New (NYSE)

Devon Energy Corporation is one of the world's leading independent oil and gas exploration and production companies. Devon's operations are focused primarily in the United States and Canada; however, the company also explores for and produces oil and natural gas in select international areas. We also own natural gas pipelines and treatment facilities in many of our producing areas, making us one of North America's larger processors of natural gas liquids. Headquartered in Oklahoma City, Devon has approximately 5,000 employees worldwide. Devon is a Fortune 500 company and is included in the S&P 500 Index.



http://www.devonenergy.com/AboutDevon/Pages/about_devon.aspx
"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!" - Ronald Reagan - June 12, 1987

Xavier_Onassis

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 27916
    • View Profile
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: XO Investments II
« Reply #17 on: May 07, 2008, 10:41:40 AM »
If you compare charts for DVN with USO, you get pretty much the same results, so the advantage would be to buy the one with the least risk, if you have to choose between the two.  I am not entirely certain, but I would guess that USO would have less risk.
"Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana."

Christians4LessGvt

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11139
    • View Profile
    • "The Religion Of Peace"
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: XO Investments II
« Reply #18 on: May 07, 2008, 11:03:29 AM »
"so the advantage would be to buy the one with the least risk, if you have to
choose between the two.  I am not entirely certain, but I would guess that
USO would have less risk"


Exactly XO.
Thats kind of my question.
Which one has less risk? And why?
USO appears to be volatile as hell.
I assume USO is going to be volatile but with an upward long term trend.
I guess they both have a long term upward trend, but maybe Devon would be less volatile?



« Last Edit: May 07, 2008, 12:48:04 PM by ChristiansUnited4LessGvt »
"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!" - Ronald Reagan - June 12, 1987

Maccus Germanis

  • Guest
Re: XO Investments II
« Reply #19 on: May 07, 2008, 11:09:31 AM »
thanks maccus
are you saying a company like this is a "safer investment" than the oil ETF?

Actually, I would think so. Their charts are rather similar, and right now I'm wondering why I began a discussion of volitility. I only use charts for timing. Volitility doesn't have the same effect on long term investing as speculation. I fundamentally don't think the business of selling short term contracts is as stable as that of a gas producer with a price to book of 2.43.

I'm recalling when I bought XTO in '98. It had a P/E of around 8 if I recall correctly. It may be overpriced now, but I'm not complaining.

Christians4LessGvt

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11139
    • View Profile
    • "The Religion Of Peace"
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: XO Investments II
« Reply #20 on: May 13, 2008, 05:29:06 PM »
April 28, 2008 - Bought USO @ $95.72
May 13, 2008 - Sold USO @ $101.64

XO I wished it always worked like that.

I hope to jump back soon in if there is a correction.
"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!" - Ronald Reagan - June 12, 1987

Xavier_Onassis

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 27916
    • View Profile
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: XO Investments II
« Reply #21 on: May 13, 2008, 05:35:20 PM »
XO I wished it always worked like that.

I hope to jump back soon in if there is a correction.

===========================
Good for you.

You were lucky.

If the price goes up it is because of fear and/or greed. The same will cause it to fall.

Normally, I hold investments for at least three months, but this is a volatile fund.
"Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana."

Christians4LessGvt

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11139
    • View Profile
    • "The Religion Of Peace"
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: XO Investments II
« Reply #22 on: May 13, 2008, 05:39:11 PM »
XO
Something Cramer said made me think.
He screamed in the Cramer way and said
"IT"S NOT A PROFIT UNLESS YOU TAKE IT!"
"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!" - Ronald Reagan - June 12, 1987

Xavier_Onassis

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 27916
    • View Profile
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: XO Investments II
« Reply #23 on: May 13, 2008, 10:40:48 PM »
Do you mean the financial guru Jim Cramer or Cosmo Kramer on Seinfeld?

They are both noted for screaming.
"Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana."

Christians4LessGvt

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11139
    • View Profile
    • "The Religion Of Peace"
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: XO Investments II
« Reply #24 on: May 22, 2008, 02:48:42 PM »
Dang XO
I suppose i shoulda waited  ::)
I did really well for only holding the stock a tad over 2 weeks
but if i had waited until now....3.5 weeks
my profit would have been double what it was.
OMG, did I say double?
I need a drink  >:(
I keep waiting for the "correction"
to buy back in
But it hasn't happened

ps: "Do you mean the financial guru Jim Cramer"

I meant Jim Cramer
« Last Edit: May 22, 2008, 02:51:09 PM by ChristiansUnited4LessGvt »
"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!" - Ronald Reagan - June 12, 1987

Xavier_Onassis

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 27916
    • View Profile
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: XO Investments II
« Reply #25 on: May 22, 2008, 04:17:20 PM »
That's why I prefer to invest in less volatile funds and hold them for longer.
Eventually, the price will drop. It can;t keep going on forever, but in a natural resource fund, there are other elements and the drop will be less abrupt.

The trick is to buy low and sell high.

The difficulty is to know when high and low are.
"Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana."

Christians4LessGvt

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11139
    • View Profile
    • "The Religion Of Peace"
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: XO Investments II
« Reply #26 on: May 22, 2008, 10:21:17 PM »
xo
a guy I know is a hard metals investor
he claims that investing in gold can be a "tax free" investment
he goes in and buys gold coins with cash, like the Eagle
later he goes in and sells them for the higher price
these transactions do not show up on his taxable income record
unlike with a mutual fund or stock transaction that reports a profit to his SS number
of course he wouldnt be able to report a loss either and he does have the problem of storage
he has a large safe
if he makes a 30K profit from a hard money transaction
it's "tax free" because the IRS has no way of knowing about it because it doesn't show on his 1099

"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!" - Ronald Reagan - June 12, 1987

Plane

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 26993
    • View Profile
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: XO Investments II
« Reply #27 on: May 23, 2008, 12:22:25 AM »
"Don't gamble. Take all your savings and buy a good stock, and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it."
- Will Rogers



"Price is what you pay, value is what you get"
- Charlie Munger

 
"I'd be a bum on the street with a tin cup if the markets were efficient "
- Warren Buffett


http://www.ndir.com/SI/articles/quotes.shtml

"First, many in Wall Street - a community in which quality control is not prized - will sell investors anything they will buy."
- Warren Buffett

 
"Volatility is a symptom that people have no idea of the underlying value"
- Jeremy Grantham

 
"The fact that people will be full of greed, fear or folly is predictable. The sequence is not predicatable."
- Warren Buffett

 
"All intelligent investing is value investing - to acquire more than you are paying for. Investing is where you find a few great companies and then sit on your ass."
- Charlie Munger
« Last Edit: May 23, 2008, 12:27:09 AM by Plane »

Xavier_Onassis

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 27916
    • View Profile
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: XO Investments II
« Reply #28 on: May 23, 2008, 01:45:51 AM »
o
a guy I know is a hard metals investor
he claims that investing in gold can be a "tax free" investment
he goes in and buys gold coins with cash, like the Eagle
later he goes in and sells them for the higher price
these transactions do not show up on his taxable income record
unlike with a mutual fund or stock transaction that reports a profit to his SS number
of course he wouldnt be able to report a loss either and he does have the problem of storage
he has a large safe
if he makes a 30K profit from a hard money transaction
it's "tax free" because the IRS has no way of knowing about it because it doesn't show on his 1099
===================================================================================

Well, you said it all. He can't deduct his losses and is every bit as likely to have a loss on gold coins as a profit. Gold is unpredictable and volatile, and unlike gold stocks, there is a markup on those coins when you buy them as  well as a markdown when you sell them. Then there is the theft factor, so if he gets robbed, he can't even deduct the loss or the insurance as an expense if he doesn't get robbed.

Plus, he is a tax cheat, and unless he gets paid in paper money or coins, he can be caught and fined. The government traces all withdrawals and deposits of $5000 and up.

He could do the same thing legally by putting his money in a Roth IRA in a gold fund. Of course, this assumes he has income below $75K annually or so.

I'd call this strategy "too clever by half."

People whose strategy is to avoid taxes before making a profit are basically shooting themselves in the foot. I would rather maximize profits, pay the taxes and avoid the hassle.
"Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana."