DebateGate
General Category => 3DHS => Topic started by: Xavier_Onassis on January 28, 2011, 02:06:26 PM
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The people of Egypt have had to deal with the corruption of Hosni Mubarak for over 30 years. The average Egyptian has to live in less than $2.00 per day. Young people who study and graduate with university degrees cannot get jobs, cannot marry, cannot progress in any way. It is very hard to imagine a less deserving leader than ancient Hosni Mubarak.
So should the US continue to support this goon? Should we allow him to hold Muhammad Elbaradei under arrest, or should we pressure them to let him go? Should we support Mubarak's plan to put his son in power?
Supposedly, we invaded Iraq in order to bring democracy to the Arab world, but Iraq is barely democratic, and the major impetus for democracy occurred in Tunisia, a nation that the US mostly leaves under the French influence.
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Good question.
How does regime change in Egypt play into the larger geopolitical picture of the Middle East and its peace process?
Who are the power players and what are the likely outcomes of their ascendancy?
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The people of Egypt have had to deal with the corruption of Hosni Mubarak for over 30 years. The average Egyptian has to live in less than $2.00 per day. Young people who study and graduate with university degrees cannot get jobs, cannot marry, cannot progress in any way. It is very hard to imagine a less deserving leader than ancient Hosni Mubarak.
So should the US continue to support this goon? Should we allow him to hold Muhammad Elbaradei under arrest, or should we pressure them to let him go? Should we support Mubarak's plan to put his son in power?
Supposedly, we invaded Iraq in order to bring democracy to the Arab world, but Iraq is barely democratic, and the major impetus for democracy occurred in Tunisia, a nation that the US mostly leaves under the French influence.
we do nothing
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BT....in my mind it "depends"
depends on who takes over...
we have a dictator that loves us, is at peace with Israel, doesn't want to
fund terror abroad & doesn't want to point nukes at us, Europe, and Israel
if they end up with a different kind of dictator or Mullah dictators
it would be silly to trade the friendly dictator for a different dictator that hates us,
will fund terror, will build nukes to point at Israel, Europe, and the US
Iran replaced the corrupt Shah but ended up with corrupt undemocratic MullahNazis
shooting protesters in the street...traded bad for bad and we now have a nuke problem
hopefully thats not the only choice
there is some guy that was in exile that came back & is supposedly democratic & popular
so if this guy is democratic, popular with the people, can fight the undemocratic MullahNazis
then there may be hope.
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I don't know enough about Egyptian politics to have a good understanding of what is going on.
I do know if you are scared enough to block the internet from your citizens, you probably don't need to be running the country.
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BT....this article from the UK says Obama is backing the people behind the uprising.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/8289686/Egypt-protests-Americas-secret-backing-for-rebel-leaders-behind-uprising.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/8289686/Egypt-protests-Americas-secret-backing-for-rebel-leaders-behind-uprising.html)
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I heard that so is the Iranian Government. What should that tell us?
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Military takeover in Egypt aired
as army holds fire against curfew violators
DEBKAfile Special Report January 28, 2011, 11:14 PM
(http://www.debka.com/dynmedia/photos/2011/01/28/big/egyptian_army_cairo28.1.11.jpg)
Egyptian soldiers welcomed by Cairo protesters
The possibility of the military taking control of the regime on the back of the popular uprising to end Hosni Mubarak's 30-year rule was actively discussed Friday night, Jan. 28, after security forces failed to control anti-government riots for four days. Protesters in Cairo, Alexandria and Suez ignored the nationwide curfew imposed until 0700 Saturday and the soldiers who were called in to enforce it held their fire. Protesters overturning and burning security forces vehicles welcomed the military APCs.
The transfer of rule to the military even for an interim period would shake the entire Middle East to its foundations. The US stands to lose its senior Arab ally, whereas a new government in Cairo might modify or abandon Egypt's epic 1979 peace treaty with Israel and turn away from the close relations between the two governments.
debkafile reported earlier:
Egyptian protesters tried to storm the foreign ministry in Cairo Friday night, Jan. 28 in defiance of nationwide curfew imposed on the capital, Alexandria and Suez, until 0700 hours Saturday. President Hosni Mubarak called in the army to back the security forces facing swelling numbers of protesters and enforce the curfew. Gunshots were heard near the parliament and thousands of protesters remained out in the streets. At least 10 people were killed and more than a thousand wounded in Cairo during the day. In Suez, 13 are reported dead, 75 injured.
The protesters later set fire to parliament, the national museum and the ruling National Democratic Party whose offices were later looted.
Some soldiers and policemen instead of confronting the rioters reportedly shed their uniforms and joined them.
Mubarak who has not been seen or heard since the crisis began is said to be planning to address the nation soon.
Tanks were seen on the streets of Suez with protesters climbing over them. A least two deaths and dozens of people were injured in the rising turbulence of clashes between security forces and the swelling ranks of protesters across the country. Friday was the fourth and most violent day of the anti-government demonstrations across Egypt, after they were joined by followers of the Muslim Brotherhood.
debkafile's military sources report that calling in the army was President Mubarak's last resort for preserving his regime but it is not without problems. The military may possibly be relied on to impose the curfew on the cities Friday but Saturday, after it is lifted, their absolute obedience to an order to shoot demonstrators cannot be taken for granted ? as was seen Friday night. The president and defense minister are not the most popular figures among the soldiers. And the officers may well calculate that both ageing leaders will not be there for long and the army would take the rap for suppressing a popular revolution by mass killings of civilians. No Egyptian commander would want to be in line for that charge.
During the day in Cairo, the protesters' ranks swelled to tens of thousands when Muslim worshippers poured out of the mosques, many heading for the Nile bridges and fighting to cross over to the government district and Tahrir (Liberation) Square on the other side. Security forces firing rubber bullets and tear gas, using water cannons and charging them with batons, injured hundreds but failed to halt the current. Youths climbed over elite security forces' armored cars trying to pull the men out of the vehicles. Two police stations were torched. The protesters called for President Hosni Mubarak, his family and his ruling elite - ""the corrupt caste" - to step down. Opposition figure Mohamed ElBaradai was placed under house arrest.
American citizens were advised to stay indoors.
In Suez, a protester died in a clash. In central Alexandria, they set fire to government buildings. Protesters were also on the streets in Suez, Ismailia, Mansoura north of Cairo and northern Sinai. The protest movement Friday was the largest thus far, greatly enlarged by orders to Muslim worshippers to take to the streets from leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood, eight of whom were promptly arrested. The demonstrations appear to be better organized and focused on specific targets, primarily security and police facilities, government buildings and offices of Hosni Mubarak's ruling party.
Earlier, the authorities disrupted internet and telephone services to make it harder to organize demonstrations to no avail. Steps were also taken to impede press coverage of the outbreaks and foreign correspondents prevented from covering the ongoing events.
The White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said Friday night in answer to a question that President Barack Obama has not spoken to President Mubarak at any point in the crisis. He said US aid to Egypt would be reviewed in the light of unfolding events, depending on whether the Mubarak regime immediately addressed the legitimate grievances of the Egyptian people by reforms and restrained the military and security forces from violence.
Asked if the US was helping its veteran Arab ally, Gibbs stressed: "The situation must be solved by the Egyptian people" which must be granted "its universal rights."
In Jordan, the Muslim Brotherhood there too called out its followers for anti-government demonstrations.
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BT....this article from the UK says Obama is backing the people behind the uprising.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/8289686/Egypt-protests-Americas-secret-backing-for-rebel-leaders-behind-uprising.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/8289686/Egypt-protests-Americas-secret-backing-for-rebel-leaders-behind-uprising.html)
The American Embassy in Cairo helped a young dissident attend a US-sponsored summit for activists in New York, while working to keep his identity secret from Egyptian state police.
On his return to Cairo in December 2008, the activist told US diplomats that an alliance of opposition groups had drawn up a plan to overthrow President Hosni Mubarak and install a democratic government in 2011.
So that would have been under Bush.
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So that would have been under Bush.
I KNEW IT....I F-ing KNEW IT!....LOL
BT you are sooooooooooo predictable.
Yes BT it was started under Bush....Had to make that clear didnt ya?...LOL...dud-in matta who be Prez now!
But who has been President for over two years?......Who BT?
Are you now going to claim Obama knew nothing about this and could not stop an American plan? (if this is true)
Come on BT....I'll play....I wanna see you try to blame Bush more....you know you want too!....Ha Ha He He
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I'm not blaming Bush.
I just noticed the date. It would be nice to know who the Bush folks were helping, and how that plays into the bigger picture.
And it would be helpful to know if the Obama administration continued contact with this individual.
This is the meeting the Embassy sent the young man to:
http://info.howcast.com/press/releases/facebook-google-youtube-mtv-howcast-columbia (http://info.howcast.com/press/releases/facebook-google-youtube-mtv-howcast-columbia)
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i know BT.....I'm just razzin ya.
did this all come from wikileaks?
i am super worried about all this
think about the last month.....
Lebanon seemingly has fallen to Hezbollah
and now chaos in Egypt could lead to IslamoNazis there too....
think of all the problems with terror support and nukes we
have with one Islamic Theocracy (IRAN).....gonna be
fun if we get 3? 5? 12?.....
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This is the group the young man belongs to:
http://www.facebook.com/topic.php?uid=38588398289&topic=15807# (http://www.facebook.com/topic.php?uid=38588398289&topic=15807#)!/group.php?gid=38588398289
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BT this guy could be promising...
"expressed interest in becoming an "agent of change and an advocate for democracy" in Egyptian politics"
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/01/28/mohamed-elbaradei_n_815529.html (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/01/28/mohamed-elbaradei_n_815529.html)
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did this all come from wikileaks?
Yeah
What's weird is that this is a netroots type operation which would be more in the dems style yet the guy was sent while Bush was President. So maybe there is a CIA connection here too.
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is wiki-leaks a CIA under-cover operation?....lol...just kidding
hell....there is so much behind the scenes we'll never know
i just hope the IslamoNazis dont get control of Egypt
i bet the Saudis are watching this closely....of course they could also be in on the whole thing...
who knows anymore?
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Mubarak hangs on to power as Obama dictates terms. But for how long?
DEBKAfile Special Report January 29, 2011, 2:31 AM (GMT+02:00)
(http://www.debka.com/dynmedia/photos/2011/01/29/big/MubarakSpeech28.1.11.jpg)
President Mubarak puts in an appearanceIn his first public appearance in four days of violent
protests against his rule, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said after midnight Friday, Jan. 28,
he would not resign, but had asked the cabinet to step down, would form a new government
Saturday and promised democratic reforms. The protests, Mubarak charged, were part of a
plot to destabilize Egypt and destroy his own legitimacy. As he spoke, dozens of army tanks
massed in Cairo's central Tahrir Square.
President Barack Obama then confirmed at the White House that he had called the Egyptian
for the first time since the crisis erupted last Tuesday and told him he must deliver on his pledges
for a better democracy and greater economic opportunities.
In his speech, Mubarak defended the hated security forces' actions against the protesters.
While promising to fix the economy and provide more freedoms and jobs, he said this would
come through national dialogue, not chaos. The Egyptian president said he had a duty not
to let anything happen to threaten the country's peace and security or permit terrorism.
debkafile: The coming hours will see how the protest movement responds to Mubarak's decision
to hold on to power in defiance of their main rallying cry and how the army conducts itself as
thousands of protesters defy the nationwide curfew decree. So far, they have not fired the
machine guns on their tanks and the soldiers were welcomed although there were some cases of hostility.
According to some sources, tanks are surrounding the British and US embassies.
After announcing that US aid to Egypt would be reviewed in the light of "unfolding events,"
Obama laid down five conditions for Mubarak to stay on as president with US support:
1. Egyptian military and security forces must be restrained from violence against civilians.
The US would defend the rights to freedom of assembly and speech everywhere.
2. Mubarak must deliver on his pledges of reforms for a better democracy and greater economic opportunities;
3. He must hold a dialogue with the opponents of his regime and abandon the use of force;
4. The shutdown of Internet and other services must be reversed.
Before Obama communicated with Mubarak, his administration was generally seen to have abandoned
the Egyptian president as a write-off and thrown its support behind the protesters.
"The situation must be solved by the Egyptian people which deserves to have its universal rights respected,"
said White House spokesman Robert Gibbs when asked if the administration supported its pro-Western Arab ally.
President Barack Obama had not spoken to President Mubarak since the crisis began, Gibbs said, stressing that
it was up to the Egyptian government to "immediately address the legitimate grievances of the Egyptian people
by reforms ? not violence. Military and security forces must act with restraint."
Gibbs warned that US aid to Egypt would be reviewed in the light of unfolding events.
The Egyptian president is clearly on trial in Washington as well as at home. It is not clear if he can survive both tests.
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BT this guy could be promising...
"expressed interest in becoming an "agent of change and an advocate for democracy" in Egyptian politics"
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/01/28/mohamed-elbaradei_n_815529.html (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/01/28/mohamed-elbaradei_n_815529.html)
The Israeli's don't like him because he was in charge of the nuke inspections for the UN in Iran. And some in the US might not be happy with him because he thinks we acted too quickly concerning Iraq.
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The Israeli's don't like him because he was in charge of the nuke inspections for the UN in Iran.
And some in the US might not be happy with him because he thinks we acted too quickly concerning Iraq.
again it all "depends"
some may not like him....but compared to who?
i think the Israelis would love him compared to another "Hoe-Main-eeee"
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looks like the guy is a grown up.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_ElBaradei (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_ElBaradei)
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BT....in my mind it "depends"
depends on who takes over...
we have a dictator that loves us, is at peace with Israel, doesn't want to
fund terror abroad & doesn't want to point nukes at us, Europe, and Israel
if they end up with a different kind of dictator or Mullah dictators
it would be silly to trade the friendly dictator for a different dictator that hates us,
will fund terror, will build nukes to point at Israel, Europe, and the US
Iran replaced the corrupt Shah but ended up with corrupt undemocratic MullahNazis
shooting protesters in the street...traded bad for bad and we now have a nuke problem
hopefully thats not the only choice
there is some guy that was in exile that came back & is supposedly democratic & popular
so if this guy is democratic, popular with the people, can fight the undemocratic MullahNazis
then there may be hope.
Actually, I would say to MYOB. (Well, not you in particular - I mean the U.S.) It is the decision of the Egyptian people. They have suffered long enough and believe me, you have no idea the extent of the suffering of those people under Mubarak. Good God, until you spend some time in Cairo and try to navigate the corruption in the systems... step over the impoverished people sleeping in the streets... until you see it on the ground you have no idea.
What strikes me - has often struck me - as sickening is the ability of the U.S. to "notice" a dictatorship when the dictator doesn't fit their agenda (Saddam Hussein)... and ignore a dictator if he toes the line (Hosni Mubarak).
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i know BT.....I'm just razzin ya.
did this all come from wikileaks?
i am super worried about all this
think about the last month.....
Lebanon seemingly has fallen to Hezbollah
and now chaos in Egypt could lead to IslamoNazis there too....
think of all the problems with terror support and nukes we
have with one Islamic Theocracy (IRAN).....gonna be
fun if we get 3? 5? 12?.....
You're worried? Me too - I'm living here. And all of your focus is on the big stuff, no one seems to notice that Jordan is holding protests and demonstrations, and barely noted that Yemen and Qatar (to an extent) are doing the same. But Egypt is really the most likely to set off an explosion here - Egypt leads, the region follows or so the sayings go.
Lebanon will probably end up in another civil war. Don't forget that a huge percentage of the Lebanese are Christian.
Egypt will likely get ElBaradei, which is a GOOD thing and quite a relief compared to the alternatives.
Tunisia is one of the most advanced countries in the region (socially) and I really doubt they will accept Islamic rule.
Yemen couldn't possibly get worse. When you're at the bottom the only way is to go up.
Analysts say that Jordan wouldn't shake up too much - the people can't imagine life without their king. The PM and elected parliament are puppets for the king anyway - something for the people to kick when they get frustrated - and the position of PM and the entire parliament get dissolved so often its laughable. (Seriously a joke in the region.) We hope that's all that will happen here, because there aren't very many good alternatives. Anyway, the Jordanian people are - mostly - concerned about the rising costs of living. As they say, "bread first."
Syria is mighty silent and considering their Shia'a/Iran ties all we can do is hope that they stay that way.
I know nothing about the politics of the other North African countries, except that when Algeria revolts it is terribly bloody - and I see they are uprising there too.
Did I miss anything? Oh yeah, if Mubarak goes and ElBaradei doesn't get control fast enough there is some worry about the Palestine/Egyptian border crossing opening up, and despite which side you play politics on, there is no doubt that chaos will reign there.
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is wiki-leaks a CIA under-cover operation?....lol...just kidding
hell....there is so much behind the scenes we'll never know
i just hope the IslamoNazis dont get control of Egypt
i bet the Saudis are watching this closely....of course they could also be in on the whole thing...
who knows anymore?
No, not the Saudis. The entire thing has been festering in the region for years... decades. People have been living with intolerable corruption. I've always called the Arabs "sheeple" because they just kept taking the sh*t. It was always forcast that if one country finally stood up against dictators and corruption it would ripple through the region.
Oh and Saudi... don't expect anything major to happen there. They are, in general, too fat and happy with the oil money to get very excited about anything. (Or so they say - who knows anymore?)
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Actually, I would say to MYOB.
Not a problem....if reality said everybody would do that....
but if you think the Muslim Brotherhood is not getting outside aid you're nuts.
Why should we leave outside influence only to our enemies?
Where is the "MYOB" when Iran is funding Hezbollah to the the tune
of hundreds of millions of dollars to take over Lebanon?
It is the decision of the Egyptian people.
Exactly....that's why it should ideally be democratic.
But often thuggery can win the day...which is not the same as the "decision of the people".
Was minority thug Saddam the "decision of the Iraqi people"?
They have suffered long enough and believe me, you have no idea the
extent of the suffering of those people under Mubarak.
Under Mubarak? How about under "everybody". Under Nasser too.
Good God, until you spend some time in Cairo and try to navigate the corruption in the systems...
step over the impoverished people sleeping in the streets... until you see it on the ground you have no idea.
Yeah and it was like that long before Mubarak and most likely will long after until they accept real democracy and capitalism.
See the United Nations Human Development Index....it's easy to see democratic and free market is the best!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Development_Index (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Development_Index)
What strikes me - has often struck me - as sickening is the ability of the U.S. to "notice"
a dictatorship when the dictator doesn't fit their agenda (Saddam Hussein)...
and ignore a dictator if he toes the line (Hosni Mubarak).
What strikes me is the "outrage" over the Shah but lack of outrage over
the abuses of human rights by the Mullahs in Iran or the Muammar Gaddafi's Libya.
All the outrage seems to go away after the new thugs takeover.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_rights_in_Libya (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_rights_in_Libya)
Sometimes in life the choice is between two skunks.
And better to have a skunk that is pointing away from you than at you.
In Iran we had a skunk (the Shah) pointing away from us.....he was a bad guy
But now we have a skunk pointing at us (the Mullahs) that are shooting Iranian citizens in the streets.
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Actually, I would say to MYOB.
Not a problem....if reality said everybody would do that....
but if you think the Muslim Brotherhood is not getting outside aid you're nuts.
Why should we leave outside influence only to our enemies?
Where is the "MYOB" when Iran is funding Hezbollah to the the tune
of hundreds of millions of dollars to take over Lebanon?
I have something to say about the Muslim Brotherhood - they are NOT the same as Al Qaeda or Hizbollah. They're just not. There are splinter groups that go off the deep end, but in general, the Muslim Brotherhood (which is multi-national and pretty much self-sustaining) are usually considered a bunch of pansies by the extreme Islamic groups.
And Egypt is not Lebanon. No Shi'a there. Totally different issue from Lebanon.
It is the decision of the Egyptian people.
Exactly....that's why it should ideally be democratic.
But often thuggery can win the day...which is not the same as the "decision of the people".
Was minority thug Saddam the "decision of the Iraqi people"?
I'm confused about your statement. Tens of thousands of Egyptians are out on the streets demonstrating - how is that thuggery? Or do I misunderstand?
They have suffered long enough and believe me, you have no idea the
extent of the suffering of those people under Mubarak.
Under Mubarak? How about under "everybody". Under Nasser too.
Too true. I just got to witness some of it under Mubarak, hear the first hand stories. *shudder*
Good God, until you spend some time in Cairo and try to navigate the corruption in the systems...
step over the impoverished people sleeping in the streets... until you see it on the ground you have no idea.
Yeah and it was like that long before Mubarak and most likely will long after until they accept real democracy and capitalism.
See the United Nations Human Development Index....it's easy to see democratic and free market is the best!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Development_Index (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Development_Index)
I agree with you that a democracy will be best for them. But Mubarak could have made changes as well, and instead things denigrated under his reign. One thing that stays fresh in my mind are the stories from Egyptian migrants in the region that talk about political dissidents being silenced effectively when the police rape their children in front of them. God!
What strikes me - has often struck me - as sickening is the ability of the U.S. to "notice"
a dictatorship when the dictator doesn't fit their agenda (Saddam Hussein)...
and ignore a dictator if he toes the line (Hosni Mubarak).
What strikes me is the "outrage" over the Shah but lack of outrage over
the abuses of human rights by the Mullahs in Iran or the Muammar Gaddafi's Libya.
All the outrage seems to go away after the new thugs takeover.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_rights_in_Libya (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_rights_in_Libya)
Good point and I agree.
Sometimes in life the choice is between two skunks.
And better to have a skunk that is pointing away from you than at you.
In Iran we had a skunk (the Shah) pointing away from us.....he was a bad guy
But now we have a skunk pointing at us (the Mullahs) that are shooting Iranian citizens in the streets.
In Iran, I believe the youth will lead the way for change, but it's frustrating to watch it draaaaagggg out, is it not?
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I have heard no words of praise for the Iranian government of the Ayatollahs from any political faction in the US, only arguments on how best to bring about change there.
The Saudis and the other Maghreb (Arabic for West, meaning countries west of Mecca, ie North African) nations are all on pretty good terms with one another, except perhaps Libya, since Khadaffi dethroned poor old King Idris to attain power. Tunisia is the second or third most prosperous nation in Africa (after South Africa and maybe Botswana), and is influenced greatly by France.
President Obama should continue to insist on free communication as well as the right of demonstrators to protest. He should not try to back up Mubarak in any way. It seems to me that the ultimate power in Egypt is the Army, which is pretty much considered a joke in the US, but is very highly regarded by the Egyptian people. As they say, "In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king". The Egyptian Army is king at the present moment. I have the feeling that if Mubarak publicly ordered the Army to shoot to kill, he would likely be overthrown, but would not be obeyed. I doubt that Mubarak would be as foolish as to give such an order publicly, though. He is an antiquated fossil, but not really all that stupid.
I could offer the thought that he is smarter than Sadat, because unlike Sadat, he has not been assassinated or overthrown by a military coup, the only ways that Egyptians traditionally get a new leader. I agree that he does not APPEAR to be smarter than Sadat. His English is a lot worse, and I do not see much charisma there, either. But I am not Egyptian, so perhaps he is charismatic in some special Egyptian way.