Estrada and the 100,000 to 150,000 other self-employed Cubans provide a glimpse of what the future might look like here, and help explain some of the low-intensity excitement about the possibility of historic change. Estrada sometimes earns three or four times what he made before quitting the Cuban navy six years ago, when his pay was the equivalent of $17 a month. He still struggles to make ends meet, but he is much better off than the overwhelming majority of his neighbors who live in rotting homes with spotty plumbing and have to feed themselves on state salaries as low as $11 a month. Raul, who has been interim president in the 19 months since Fidel underwent multiple intestinal surgeries, has stoked hopes of even more dramatic change by hinting for months about "structural and conceptual" shifts in Cuba's economy. Economists and many islanders see much in Raul's track record to suggest that he may expand private business opportunities and perhaps even restore some of the vaunted mid-1990s reforms that his all-powerful brother dismantled. "I see it as a great possibility that Raul will make changes to Cuba's economy," Oscar Espinosa Chepe, a former Cuban government economist and diplomat who was imprisoned in a 2003 crackdown on dissidents, said in an interview. "He is much more pragmatic than his brother." [...] There was also a major crackdown on paladares, the small restaurants that were thriving because their owners were preparing meals that were far superior to the drab offerings in most state-run restaurants. In the late 1990s, it was estimated that Havana had more than 1,000 paladares; some of their owners were achieving worldwide fame. Now, there may be fewer than 100, said a Cuban government economist who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of repercussions. [...] Raul Castro hasn't focused on Cuban restaurants in his public speeches, but he speaks frequently about the farmers who supply them. Jorge and the government economist each predicted that Raul might begin deeding farmland to campesinos, or poor farmers. During a speech last July, Raul -- who is known for his wry, biting humor -- said he'd admired the marabu growing on the roadsides. Marabu is a thorny bush that spreads across untilled fields. The message was clear: Cuba's government-controlled farmers were not doing their job well. Currently, half of Cuba's arable land is not cultivated, but many here believe private ownership of some farmland would free farmers to produce more in a country that imports 80 percent of its food. |