DebateGate
General Category => 3DHS => Topic started by: BT on February 27, 2011, 03:29:33 AM
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What The Census Tells Us About America?s Future
By JOEL KOTKIN
With the release of results for over 20 states, the 2010 Census has provided some strong indicators as to the real evolution of the country?s demography. In short, they reveal that Americans are continuing to disperse, becoming more ethnically diverse and leaning toward to what might be called ?opportunity? regions.
Below is a summary of the most significant findings to date, followed by an assessment of what this all might mean for the coming decade.
Point One: America is becoming more suburban.
For much of the past decade, there has been a constant media drumbeat about the ?return to the cities.? Urban real estate interests, environmentalists and planners have widely promoted this idea, and it has been central to the ideology of the Obama administration, the most big-city dominated in at least a half century. ?We?ve reached the limits of suburban development,? Housing Secretary Shaun Donovan opined last February, ?People are beginning to vote with their feet and come back to the central cities.?
Donavan and others cite such things as the energy price spike in the mid-aughts as well as the mortgage crisis as contributing to the ?back to the city? trend. Yet in reality the actual numbers suggest that Donavan and his cronies may need a serious reality check. The Census reveals that, contrary to the ?back to the city? rhetoric, suburban growth continues to dominate in most regions of the country, constituting between 80% and 100% of all growth in all but three of the 16 metropolitan areas reporting.
This includes sprawling regions like Houston, ?smart growth? areas like Seattle and Portland (where suburbs accounted for more than 80% of all growth over the decade) and Midwestern regions like St. Louis, which like Chicago saw a sharp decline in the urban population. The only exceptions have been Oklahoma City, Austin or San Antonio, with vast expanses still allowing for much of new development to take place within the city limits.
To be sure, no one should pretend that urban fortunes have sunk to their 1970s nadir. Yet overall, central cities, which accounted for a 11% of metropolitan growth in the 1990s, constituted barely 4% of the growth in the last decade. Some core cities, notably Chicago, have shrunk after making gains in the ?90s. Indeed Chicago ? the president?s adopted hometown and the poster child of the urban ?comeback? ? took what analyst Aaron Renn humorously dubbed ?a Census shellacking,? losing some 200,000 people, while the outer suburban ring continued to grow and diversify their populations. The Windy City?s population is now down to the lowest level since the 1910 Census.
Point Two: America is becoming more diverse, and the diversity is spreading.
The racial reordering of America is proceeding apace. Nowhere is this more clear than in Texas, where Hispanic and Asian populations have driven much of the state?s demographic growth. Latinos alone now account for roughly 38% of all Texans. Immigration rates in Dallas and Houston are now higher than for Chicago, Washington, Seattle and Atlanta. Texas, notes long-time observer Candace Evans, is becoming the country?s premier laboratory for promoting a successful diversity.
There are other major shifts in ethnic demographics. For one thing, minorities continue to head to the suburban rings around most major cities. African-Americans and even Latinos may be fleeing places like Chicago, but they continue to move in large numbers to suburban locales in surrounding Illinois counties. , especially south of the city. Others appear to have headed to places like the traditional black-opportunity magnet of Atlanta and or other southern hubs, such as Nashville.
Another trend appears to be the migration of ethnic minorities to areas that, in the past, have been primarily white. This is clear in the thriving Indianapolis area, where the African-American population grew by 28% and the Hispanic population by 161%, or some 56,000 souls. Look for more minority growth in such areas which have the advantage of affordable housing, robust economies and better than average job growth.
3. The Shift to ?Opportunity Regions?
As the economy slid in the last years of the decade, population growth slowed, particularly in some Sun Belt states, such as Florida and Nevada, that thrived during the bubble. In contrast newcomers flocked to places, notably in the Texas cities, that offered better prospects. Austin, San Antonio, Houston and Dallas-Ft. Worth regions all grew by 20% or more over the decade.
The key here seems to be affordability and jobs. As economist Mark Sharpe has illustrated, Texas private sector job growth last year was 2.7%, compared with 1% nationally. Unfortunately, unemployment remains over 8%, since of this growth was absorbed by newcomers. In contrast, places with the slowest, or negative growth, tend also to be losing jobs. For example, although the residential population of Chicago?s loop tripled in the past decade to 20,000,the famed business district lost almost 65,000 jobs.
But it?s not just Sun Belt cities that are gaining on places like Chicago. Indianapolis has emerged as a different kind of ?opportunity region.? It lacks the dynamism and diversity of the Texas cities, but it has continued to attract people from all over the country, including the surrounding rural or old Rust Belt parts of the state. Overall the Indianapolis region grew nearly 15% over the decade, roughly 50% higher than the national average, as much as Portland and more than Seattle.
In contrast, growth seems to be slowing in some formerly hot areas. Population increases for Seattle, Portland and Denver were around 14%, about half the rate of the previous decade. Part of this may have to do with high unemployment, particularly in Oregon, and high housing prices. Still, these three areas continue to grow much faster than regions such as Chicago, St. Louis or Baltimore where growth struggled in the single digits
Possible Long-term Implications
These shifts suggest that the Obama administration might want to rethink its high-density and urban-oriented strategy. Despite all the media focus on an imagined ?back to the city? movement, Americans continue to disperse to ?opportunity regions? and toward the suburbs. As a result, expect generally conservative-leaning suburbs and exurbs to gain more power after reapportionment and core city influence to decline further.
Yet the Census numbers also have some unsettling aspects for Republicans. The increasing minority population even in heartland states such as Indiana, not to mention Texas, could undermine GOP gains, particularly if the party listens to its strong nativist wing. Diversification in the suburbs could ultimately turn some of these areas to the center or even left.
The new American generation arising in the census will be increasingly diverse. A growing portion will consist of the children of immigrants, and they will be predominately English-speaking. This suggests a more active and engaged minority population, perhaps susceptible to a pro-growth GOP message and the economy of ?opportunity regions? but likely hostile to overtly anti-immigrants posturing.
Whatever your politics or economic interests, the Census suggests that the country is changing in dramatic way? if not always in the ways often predicted by pundits, planners or the media. It usually makes more sense to study the actual numbers, than follow the wishful thinking of largely urban-centric, big-city-based and often quite biased analysts.
http://blogs.forbes.com/joelkotkin/2011/02/25/what-the-census-tells-us-about-americas-future/ (http://blogs.forbes.com/joelkotkin/2011/02/25/what-the-census-tells-us-about-americas-future/)
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(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_QseH-QYr-Kk/RuoIniWAHgI/AAAAAAAAGCs/E5uzgdVLEyQ/s320/Houston-Chronicle-logo-175.jpg)
Texas Politics
Texas demographer: "It's basically over for Anglos"
February 24, 2011
Looking at population projections for Texas, demographer
Steve Murdock concludes: "It's basically over for Anglos."
Two of every three Texas children are now non-Anglo and the trend line will become even
more pronounced in the future, said Murdock, former U.S. Census Bureau director and now
director of the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University.
Today's Texas population can be divided into two groups, he said. One is an old and aging
Anglo and the other is young and minority. Between 2000 and 2040, the state's public school
enrollment will see a 15 percent decline in Anglo children while Hispanic children will make up
a 213 percent increase, he said.
The state's largest county - Harris - will shed Anglos throughout the coming decades. By 2040,
Harris County will have about 516, 000 fewer Anglos than lived in the Houston area in 2000,
while the number of Hispanics will increase by 2.5 million during the same period, Murdock said.
The projection assumes a net migration rate equal to one-half of 1990-2000.
Most of the state's population growth is natural, Murdock told the House Mexican American
Legislative Caucus today. About 22 percent of the growth comes from people moving to Texas
from other states.
About 6 percent of the state's population is not documented, he said.
B y 2040, only 20 percent of the state's public school enrollment will be Anglo, he said.
Last year, non-Hispanic white children made up 33.3 percent of the state's 4.8 million
public school enrollment.
Of the state's 254 counties, 79 recorded declining population during the past 20 years.
All are rural. An additional 30 Texas counties, he said, would have also lost population
had they not experienced Hispanic growth.
The state's future looks bleak assuming the current trend line does not change because
education and income levels for Hispanics lag considerably behind Anglos, he said.
Unless the trend line changes, 30 percent of the state's labor force will not have even a
high school diploma by 2040, he said. And the average household income will be about
$6,500 lower than it was in 2000. That figure is not inflation adjusted so it will be worse
than what it sounds."It's a terrible situation that you are in. I am worried," Murdock said.
http://blogs.chron.com/texaspolitics/archives/2011/02/texas_demograph.html (http://blogs.chron.com/texaspolitics/archives/2011/02/texas_demograph.html)
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I don't think the last chapter has been written yet.....
http://american3p.org/ (http://american3p.org/)
It ain't over until the fat lady sings....
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Remember seeing this on news? I don't either. Not only that, a google search doesn't turn up a single news item about it anywhere in the world..... but the footage is all over youtube....
Thousands of Greek nationalists march on Athens
Πορεία ΙΜΙΑ 2011 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcYPqYhw8YQ#)
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I don't think the last chapter has been written yet.....
http://american3p.org/ (http://american3p.org/)
It ain't over until the fat lady sings....
Mission Statement
The American Third Position exists to represent the political interests of White Americans.
What does that mean and how would the political interests of white Americans diverge from African American, Hispanic American, Native American or Asian American?
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What does that mean and how would the political interests of white Americans
diverge from African American, Hispanic American, Native American or Asian American?
Pretty much all the groups you listed have organizations that advocate political
policy for those individual groups, why is it you only question the organization that
appears to be an advocate for whites?
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I don't think the last chapter has been written yet.....
http://american3p.org/ (http://american3p.org/)
It ain't over until the fat lady sings....
Mission Statement
The American Third Position exists to represent the political interests of White Americans.
What does that mean and how would the political interests of white Americans diverge from African American, Hispanic American, Native American or Asian American?
They do not diverge.
That is why the NAACP is an anacronism.
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Pretty much all the groups you listed have organizations that advocate political
policy for those individual groups, why is it you only question the organization that
appears to be an advocate for whites?
And what policy do these minority groups advocate that would not benefit whites?
Seems to me, all these groups advocate for a slice of the pie. Who bakes the pie, who controls the slicing. If it is whites is it because they have superior talent and merit or is it that "they" have the money to buy the ingredients to make and own the pie?
And what is A3P advocating? Are they declaring jihad on infidel non whites? Are they advocating a higher birth rate among caucasions to counter the higher birth rates of minorities? Are they in it for the money?
Who is their market? Are they going after those with homes built on foundations or maybe those with less ink on their bodies?
Are they focusing on just demographics or do they have some other philosophical issues in play to go with it?
But ya have to give the people what they want. So no i don't have a problem with A3P, their existence or even the concept of a white people advocacy group.
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They do not diverge.
That is why the NAACP is an anacronism.
That is what i thought.
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I don't think the last chapter has been written yet.....
http://american3p.org/ (http://american3p.org/)
It ain't over until the fat lady sings....
Mission Statement
The American Third Position exists to represent the political interests of White Americans.
What does that mean and how would the political interests of white Americans diverge from African American, Hispanic American, Native American or Asian American?
They do not diverge.
That is why the NAACP is an anacronism.
For an anachronism, they sure seem to be doing pretty good business.....
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Some people love anacronism.
Heard of the SCA?
Call them anacronistic and they would say "Prithee good sir , HELL YEA!"
www.sca.org (http://www.sca.org)
(http://www.ericforsberg.com/images/jousting.jpg)
The NAACP was formed to meet a real need , I think it has outlived its origional purpose and is victim to its own success.