DebateGate
General Category => 3DHS => Topic started by: Christians4LessGvt on November 15, 2011, 06:21:59 PM
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(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/c/c0/Public_Policy_Polling_logo.jpg/200px-Public_Policy_Polling_logo.jpg)
Gingrich takes lead nationally
November 14, 2011
(http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/.a/6a0133f2dd8001970b0162fc62aa49970d-pi)
Newt Gingrich has taken the lead in PPP's national polling. He's at 28% to 25% for Herman Cain and 18% for Mitt Romney. The rest of the Republican field is increasingly looking like a bunch of also rans: Rick Perry is at 6%, Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 3%, and Gary Johnson and Rick Santorum each at 1%.
Compared to a month ago Gingrich is up 13 points, while Cain has dropped by 5 points and Romney has gone down by 4. Although a fair amount of skepticism remains about the recent allegations against Cain there is no doubt they are taking a toll on his image- his net favorability is down 25 points over the last month from +51 (66/15) to only +26 (57/31). What is perhaps a little more surprising is that Romney's favorability is at a 6 month low in our polling too with only 48% of voters seeing him favorably to 39% with a negative opinion.
Gingrich's lead caps an amazing comeback he's made over the last 5 months. In June his favorability nationally with Republican voters plummeted all the way to 36/49. Now he's at 68/23, representing a 58 point improvement in his spread since then. As recently as August Gingrich was mired in single digits at 7%, and even in September he was at just 10%. He's climbed 18 points in less than 2 months.
There's reason to think that if Cain continues to fade, Gingrich will continue to gain. Among Cain's supporters 73% have a favorable opinion of Gingrich to only 21% with a negative one. That compares to a 33/55 spread for Romney with Cain voters and a 32/53 one for Perry. They like Gingrich a whole lot more than they do the other serious candidates in the race.
Cain's base of strength continues to be with Tea Party voters, where he gets 33% to 31% for Gingrich, and only 11% for Romney. This is where you can really see that Gingrich will be the beneficiary if Cain continues to implode- Gingrich's favorability with Tea Partiers is 81/14. Romney's is 43/45. There's a lot of room for Gingrich to build up support with that key group of Republican voters.
Cain's continuing to benefit from doubts about whether the allegations against him are true- 54% of primary voters think they are 'mostly false' to only 24 who believe they are 'mostly true.' Painting himself as a victim of the media is proving to be a good strategy for Cain so far- 61% think it has been 'mostly unfair' to him compared to 26% who say it has been 'mostly fair.' Only 26% of Republicans say they have a more negative opinion of him now than before the accusations surfaced, and just 27% think he should drop out of the race. All of that's fine but here's the bottom line- Cain's favorability numbers are declining and so is his support. If those trends continue he will fade as a candidate.
The other Republican coming off a bad week is Rick Perry and his numbers have continued on their downward trajectory. Just 35% of GOP primary voters see him positively to 49% with a negative opinion. That's a 18 point drop compared to a month ago when he was at 42/38. And he's gone from 14% to 6% in the horse race, a bigger decline than Cain's.
If there's any sign of hope for Perry and the other non-Gingrich/Cain/Romney voters it might be the rise of Gingrich. Gingrich has gained 18 points in only 2 months, suggesting that someone else might be capable of gaining 18 points in the 2 months before Iowa as well. And Perry's national favorability of 35/49 is pretty much identical to the 36/49 Gingrich had in June- Newt obviously came back and perhaps Perry can as well, although there's no doubt the clock is ticking.
As for Romney he has not shown any ability to take advantage of the trouble his fellow candidates keep getting themselves into. In July Romney was at 20%, in August at 20%, in September at 18%, October at 22%, and now in November at 18%. He's been at 20 +/-2% for the last five months in our polling. While the flavor of the month has gone from Trump to Bachmann to Perry to Cain to Gingrich, Romney hasn't had a turn in that seat- he can only hope that his chance in that role will come in January, which is certainly the best time to have it.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/11/gingrich-takes-the-lead.html (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/11/gingrich-takes-the-lead.html)
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The polling company is endorsed by Kos.
Grains of salt suggested.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/track/hire-ppp-track.html (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/track/hire-ppp-track.html)
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How much does a poll like this reflect disatisfaction with the well established canadates?
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Your best bet is Real Clear Politics poll averages.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html)
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How much does a poll like this reflect disatisfaction with the well established canadates?
thats exactly what I thought Plane....
new front runners race to the top, then fall like a rock once they open their mouth or are vetted
of course thats what this process is intended to do....to wash everyone except 1 out
But yes it makes me worry about our slate
although i think Obama is sooooo bad we are going to win
i think part of the problem is the American People dont wanna make hard choices
so they like someone until he/she starts making the hard choices
they always like the "greener pasture" until the greener pasture starts making tough decisions
I am afraid thats what we are gonna have for quite awhile
the American people back and forth trading out parties
because they really dont wanna make the hard decisions
they wanna just keep treading water and putting off the root canal thats needed
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The polling company is endorsed by Kos. Grains of salt suggested.
From your source BT:
"In the three campaigns it has polled thus far this cycle, PPP has been within one point in one special House election, within two points in another and within three points of calling a gubernatorial primary"
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Rasmussen has as good as or a better record. Zogby used to be good until their bias got in the way. Accuracy seems to be in flux because people are moving away from landlines. Also keep in mind that we are a year away from the elections. What the polls are really telling us is that Romneys support is soft and Huntsman is not on the radar and likely GOP voters haven't decided who their anybody but Romney candidate is because they all have flaws.
Look at the lineup.
Gingrich is the smartest but what kind of manager would he be?
Cain is a good manager but he shoots from the hip
Perry can't debate but he has a good track record in TX.
Bachmann is a SoCon but she also is a fiscal conservative. I'd like her to be the next speaker of the house.
Santorum strikes me as a hall monitor.
And Ron Paul ... well he's Ron Paul
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What the polls are really telling us is that Romneys support is soft and Huntsman is
not on the radar and likely GOP voters haven't decided who their anybody but Romney
candidate is because they all have flaws.
nail on head award of the day!
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<<What the polls are really telling us is that Romneys support is soft . . . >>
How so? How I read the numbers was that Romney support declined only slightly, while Gingrich's shot up, at least in part due to disenchanted Perv supporters, whose support was shown to be much more likely to go pro-Newt than pro-Romney.
The problem that I can't figure out is how to account for that portion of Newt's gain that can't be chalked up to disappointed Perv followers. Do you simply add in support from other candidates' followers jumping as their respective ships are sinking?
Newt is a real ass-hole but seems to have mastered the art of looking smart. Whatever he's doing, it's powerful.
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When Perry jumped in he quickly surpassed Romney in the polls. When Perry faltered in the debates did Romney gain? NO. Cain Rose as Perry dropped. When Cain started dropping and based on the Lincoln Douglas style debate between Newt and Herman Newt started rising.
Paul has stayed steady same with Bachmann and Santorum. Newt er Huntsman has been flat all year.
The only people who really support him are establicans and dems.
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Michael if you notice no matter who falls Romney never really gains.
that's why I agree his support is somewhat soft at this point.
Many conservatives think someone that can win South Carolina is
what we need, I say hogwash.....we need someone that can win
South Carolina in Nov as well as Ohio, AND Pennsylvania!
Winning the South Carolinas aint gonna cut it!
BT is only partly correct........
I am neither an "establican or demssupporting"
and I am supporting Romney because I think he
is the least flawed, the most polished, does not suffer
from "deer in headlight" disease and is actually more
conservative than many think.
In the Fall of 2012 I think the conservatives will
fall in line and support Romney (especially after he names a conservative VP)
and at that point Mitt will be a very formidable national candidate
against Obama because Mitt will attract voters a Perry/Newt could not.
Mitt isn't running away with it now,
but that's not all bad anyway.
A wide field helps to keep the Dems
from just having one target to shoot at,
it allows more exchange of conservative ideas
in the public eye, and it will bring Mitt more to the right.
I think Romney will be able to go "toe to toe"
with Obama in debates, he wont forget what agency
he wants to dismantle, he doesn't look like he has personal baggage,
the media will have trouble playing him as a right wing nut job/racist,
he has experience in the executive role, he looks good,
and I just think he is going to be our next president.
We'll see.....
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Newt was driven out of the speakership as well as Congress by his own party. He is a smartass that people find they more they deal with him, the more they loathe him.
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Consider that Newt was driven from the speakership because he ran the house like he was chief executive. The young turks who came in with the Contract for America is who drove him out. Well them, Dick Armey and Tom Delay.
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<<In July Romney was at 20%, in August at 20%, in September at 18%, October at 22%, and now in November at 18%. He's been at 20 +/-2% for the last five months in our polling.>>
The above is what I can't reconcile with the notion of Romney's support being soft. It's stable at about 20%, which means that his supporters are staying with him regardless of the ups and downs of the other candidates. The other candidates (by definition, the ABR bloc) seem to be trading support amongst themselves within a closed (ABR) system. One or more of the ABRs must drop in order for Newt to rise. Perry doesn't have much further to fall. As between Cain and Gingrich, assuming no major bombshells hit the Newtster, Cain is a lot more likely to further haemorrhage support, as the recent Libyan flub mixes in with continuing fall-out from his sexual harassment problems. That lost support, IMHO, seems likeliest to end up on Newt's side, pushing him higher against both Romney and Cain.
Perry, at this point, looks like a lost cause, having sunk too far too fast. I can't even think what kind of unexpected event might restore his chances.
<<Michael if you notice no matter who falls Romney never really gains.
that's why I agree his support is somewhat soft at this point. >>
Yes, that was my point exactly, except that I call that kind of support stable rather than soft. Romney seems stuck under a glass ceiling, but under that ceiling, his support is pretty much unwavering and unaffected by the ups and downs of the ABR candidates. IMHO, one of the key reasons he's stuck there is that the Tea Party and ultra-conservative wings of the party just don't trust him as a conservative, hence the ABR sentiment in the first place. So I think at this point, where Mitt is (say about 20%) is about as high as he's ever gonna get. For Mitt to win, the remaining ABR majors are going to have to self-destruct. Perry's already well on the way, and Cain now seems to be going the same way, but I can't see it happening to Newt, who I also see as the main beneficiary of lost Cain support and probably of lost Perry support as well.
The negatives on Newt that I see coming from both XO and BT are real enough, but they seem to operate only within the GOP hierarchy, rather than the rank and file. When the rank and file watch the debates, they see Newt as the smartest guy in the room, and they don't give a shit or perhaps don't even know that he's considered an ass-hole in some circles.
As for winning Ohio and Pennsylvania, I agree that Mitt would have had the best chance, but it ain't gonna happen. The Tea Party doesn't trust Mitt's conservative credentials and he's not even going to get a chance to bust open either of them.
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I think rumors of Perry's demise are premature. He needs to finish in the top 3 in Iowa, same with NH and then no less than 2nd in SC. He has the money to do that. And he is a good retail politician.
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<<I think rumors of Perry's demise are premature. He needs to finish in the top 3 in Iowa, same with NH and then no less than 2nd in SC. He has the money to do that. And he is a good retail politician.>>
Well, that's more or less what I referred to as a miracle. Top 3 in Iowa and NH would still leave the guy hanging on by his fingernails and 2nd in SC with his tuition for immigrants' kids? If that ain't a miracle then I don't know shit about miracles.
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It's not tuition for immigrants kids. He said that if you are a resident of Texas, living in the state for 3 years and graduated from a state highschool, then you would pay in state tuition. Not like he can deport the kids anyways, that's the feds job. Which they aren't doing. So as long as they are there, might as well educate them so they continue to pay texas taxes. And odds are if they are college grads they will earn more and spend more.
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Did I get it wrong? I thought (based, I admit, on how other candidates have characterized this) that he favoured the public education of the children of illegal immigrants in JK to 12 whether or not the kids were born in the USA. Which I happened to agree with, but figured it would give the good folks of South Carolina some major burst blood vessels.
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federal law requires public school educations for illegal immigrant children. Perry basically said if we have to do that then they should qualify for in state tuition rates at colleges, perhaps to protect the states investment.
I don't disagree with that thinking but then i'm a closeted liberal rino, supposedly.
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Well, thanks for the clarification, but I still don't think that the good folks of South Carolina are going to be thrilled with a guy whose bottom line is more Mexicans in State colleges., some of them being illegals or the children of illegals. Also his flip-flop on abortion rights has to lead to additional drag on his engine. They'd be happier with a True Believer. I can see the Newt and even Crazy Eyes pulling ahead of Perry in SC. The Perv would be ideal for South Carolinians if it weren't for the colour of his skin and his alleged sexual harassment of white women.
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that whole line of "well lets make the best of it" is bullshit in my mind
it's a creeping of more and more "rights" given to lawbreaking illegal
invaders that have no right to be in our country...with every new
"right" that is given to make life easier for the lawbreaking illegals
it only encourages more to come....so when objections are raised
about each issue....it isn't only that one issue...it is the totality of
rights that in the end fuels more and more millions of illegals to
come to the United States
"well lets give the illegals driver's licenses' because they'll be on the road"
"well lets give the illegals medical care at the hospitals...how can we not"
"well lets give the illegals education...because well...they're here"
"well lets let the illegals rent apartments"
"well lets let the illegals turn on utilities"
"well lets let the illegals check out library books"
"well lets let the illegals get jobs"
"soon it will be well lets let the illegals vote because they pay taxes"
Rick Perry can take his support for using American Citizens taxpayer money
to educate the offspring of illegals and stuff it where the sun don't shine!
This isnt brain surgery...in fact it's pretty simple....
Just Say No And They Will Leave!
No Jobs
No Residence
No Medical Care
No Education
No No No....Get the hell out of our country & get in line to come back legally!
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yeah let's take the tax money they pay for purchases and property and not give them anything for it.
BTW does Texas charge out of state tuition fees for the children of citizens arrested for misdemeanors and felonies?
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.Get the hell out of our country & get in line to come back legally!
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There is little chance that they would be allowed back in legally. That is why they came here illegally in the first place.
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.Get the hell out of our country & get in line to come back legally!
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There is little chance that they would be allowed back in legally..
Based on what? They wouldn't be allowed to stand at the end of the line??
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Based on the fact that when they get to the head of the line they are denied a visa. To get into the US from a Latin Country, all they will give you is a tourist visa, not a resident visa, and you will only get one of those if you have a round trip ticket and at least a thousand dollars that you have to show the person at the consulate.
If you have $500,000 in cash, or a job offer in a few occupations that are in short supply here, you might get a work visa. Otherwise, you pay a fee for the consulate to consider your application, they deny your request and keep the fee.
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BTW does Texas charge out of state tuition fees for the children of citizens arrested for misdemeanors and felonies?
nice apples to oranges RINO
children of citizens spoils the apples to oranges
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Based on the fact that when they get to the head of the line they are denied a visa.
Ok, your say so just isn't going to cut it. Demonstrate some proof, some documentation that shows that when they've gone thru the line, that when they finally get to the front, they are then denied a visa. Until then, it's not even close to a "fact"
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BTW does Texas charge out of state tuition fees for the children of citizens arrested for misdemeanors and felonies?
nice apples to oranges RINO
children of citizens spoils the apples to oranges
Does it? can felons vote in Texas? do their children share the sin of their fathers?
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I also notice that the Texas law passed the Senate with zero no votes. Did not know Texas was a RINO state.
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Did not know Texas was a RINO state.
FED UP with RINOs from Texas!
Saturday, 24 September 2011
By John W. Lillpop
In 2010, Governor Rick Perry( R-Texas) authored a book titled FED UP!, which chronicles the Governor?s anger and frustration at Washington, D.C. and what he sees as the deliberate usurping of the rights and liberties of American citizens by Washington bureaucrats.
From all appearances, Perry is the quintessential conservative, the go-to man when it comes to poking holes in the flawed logic of moon bat liberals who favor big government.
Unfortunately, upon further investigation, Perry?s conservative credentials are blemished, almost to the point of extinction, by virtue of his very liberal views on illegal aliens.
At the GOP Presidential debate in Orlando, Florida on September 22, Perry said:
If you say that we should not educate children who come into our state for no other reason than that they've been brought their through no fault of their own, I don't think you have a heart," Perry said. "We need to be educating these children because they will become a drag on our society. I think that's what Texans wanted to do. Out of 181 members of the Texas legislature when this issue came up [there were] only four dissenting votes. This was a state issue. Texas voted on it. And I still support it today.
Perry?s outrageous statement made it clear that he is another Texas RINO who simply does not respect the rule of law and American sovereignty.
Consequently, I have decided to publish my own book titled, FED UP with RINOS from Texas!, which chronicles my rage at cowboys from Texas who somehow manage to steal the White House based on false claims and who subsequently sell out the American people to the failed state of Mexico.
Excerpts from my masterpiece follow:
Dear Governor Perry:
Patriotic Americans all across our great land are flying the American flag upside down this morning, at least metaphorically, to signify our severe disappointment at your performance during the Republican debate in Florida on September 22.
Our ire was aroused by your position on illegal aliens which we believe to be ?naive, arrogant, misguided, and dangerous.?
At issue is nothing less vital than homeland security, rule of law, American sovereignty, and preservation of American language and culture, all of which are threatened by those who propose to coddle illegal aliens and reward these criminals with in-state tuition and other lures that will only attract tens of millions more invaders to our blessed nation.
Just to make sure that our views are clearly understood, please be advised that we the people are FED UP with the attempt to undermine American sovereignty, homeland security, and culture.
In short, we the people are:
FED UP with the refusal of the federal government to secure our borders at time of war.
FED UP when armed Mexicans illegally cross our borders and assault Americans, yet our government takes no action, and refuses to even protest.
FED UP when Americans defending the U.S. from drug smuggling illegal aliens are sent to federal prison, while invading criminals are to be forgiven via amnesty for violating our borders and laws.
FED UP with the fact that upwards of 20 million illegal aliens are currently in America, costing taxpayers at least $110 billion dollars every year.
FED UP with a president who orders thousands of young Americans into harm's way thousands of miles from home, but who refuses to secure America.
FED UP with politicians who refuse to enforce immigration laws and who claim it is "impossible" to deport criminals here illegally.
FED UP with illegal aliens who can not and/or will not speak English.
FED UP with taxpayer dollars being wasted to print documents in foreign languages.
FED UP with illegal aliens who dump their medical bills on the backs of U.S. taxpayers, but who send $30-40 billion a year back to Mexico each year.
FED UP with the fact that providing free medical services to illegal aliens drives hospitals out of business, making those facilities unavailable to American citizens for whom the medical centers were intended.
FED UP with our schools being invaded by non-English speaking children who impede the learning process of students who genuinely belong here.
FED UP with the fact that federal, state, and local penal systems are overrun by illegal aliens, again costing taxpayers billions each year.
FED UP with the fact that the overwhelming majority of felony crimes being investigated in Los Angeles have been committed by illegals from Mexico.
FED UP with politicians who refuse to round up and deport millions of illegal aliens who are destroying American culture and language.
FED UP with politicians who pamper illegal aliens with driver's licenses and free public services such as in-state tuition, which encourage even more invaders to come to America.
FED UP with the attempted Mexicanization of America. Mexico is a third- world slum, and we are FED UP with those who want America to be like Mexico!
Finally, we the people are FED UP with those who consistently work on behalf of illegal aliens and the state of Mexico, and against the interests of the American people!
Please know that because of your RINO support for illegal aliens, we cannot support your candidacy.
Regards,
AMERICA PATRIOTS FROM COAST TO COAST
http://www.borderfirereport.net/john-w-lillpop/253-fed-up-with-rinos-from-texas.html (http://www.borderfirereport.net/john-w-lillpop/253-fed-up-with-rinos-from-texas.html)
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So Texas is like California , where conservatives don't have the numbers to elect their own.
That's sad.
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.Get the hell out of our country & get in line to come back legally!
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There is little chance that they would be allowed back in legally. That is why they came here illegally in the first place.
There is a good point.
This country has a real need for a lot of these people , but our immagration law is so out of whack that otherwise honest employers are financeing the breaking of this law. There is a pressure created by the unmet need and the oversupply on the opposite sides of the border, this pressure is relieved by breaking the immagration law , but it would be better to change the law so that it was a law that made better sense, was easyer to enforce and made reasonable demands on immagrants.
I don't know how I would prove it but I would be willing to bet that 90% or better of these ileagal aliens are decent people we would be glad for if we made them citizens. It would pay us well to be discriminating against the minority that are professional criminals, but the lawbreaking relief of pressure can't be discrimminating at all.
This one issue is the one where I like Perry, as only Nixon could go to China , I think it will require a Republican prominent in a border state to reform immagration. Perry seems to have the right mind for the job,the right experience, the right attitude for the job and potentially the right Congress for the job.
Did anyone notice that president Obama back burnered the issue?Reelected I think he will continue the Status Quo unfortunately the status quo includes a worsening trend.
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When Obama does not have to worry about reelection, he wil have a lot more freedom to address both immigration and Palisrael.
At present, he is deporting as many illegals as Congress will fund him to deport, about 400,000 per year, most of whom have committed some crime here.
He gets ignored by the anti-immigration crowd for not doing enough, and lambasted by some Hispanics for doing too much.
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It would be nice to deport all of the illeagal aliens , but we can't really get it done , nor afford the result.
What has to happen along with the enforcement is providing a better means for leagal immagration, no more filter than is reasonable , less enforcement but more targeted and effective against bad apples.
Why is it so hard to change these laws?