DebateGate

It might behoove you to try and understand voters and the political science behind their actions a little more and play the victim card a little less.

But then advice is worth what you pay for it. You can walk around with a glow-in-the-dark victim t-shirt if it brings meaning to your world I suppose.

And not all income against last year has been finalized yet, either.

True. And note that expenses and revenue can go either up or down before they are finalized.

I'm not exactly sure of the timetable for the Federal Government, but preliminary reports probably haven't run yet for last fiscal year. It will be quite some time before final reports have run.

Any projections for the current year are only rudimentary and based on the budget. Keep in mind that a budget is based on theoretical money (not real money). Making projections is good, but the further out one is from year-end, then the less-accurate it is.

Also, early projections from this administration have historically underestimated the deficit and have not counted the supplementary funding of the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Some of you might be interested in the Tennessee Senate race as it has gained some national attention of late. The race has been mentioned as part of a "firewall" by the Republican Party and has received a great deal of money from outside the state by both the Democrat and Republican national campaigns.

The candidates are:

Republican Bob Corker
Democrat Harold Ford Jr.

Mr Corker is the former mayor of Chattanooga (2001 to 2005) and before that he owned a construction company and later a real estate company. He ran for the Senate in 1994, but lost the Republican primary to eventual Senator (and current Senate leader Bill Frist). Bob Corker also served (1995 to 1999) as Commissioner of Finance and Administration during Governor Don Dunquist's administration.

Mr Ford is the current Congressmen for the 9th congressional district of Tennessee. He has served at that position since 1996 and has won each election with nearly 80% of the vote in what is a heavily Democratic Memphis district. Ford is considered a moderate Democrat and is a member of the "Blue Dog Coalition." He has voted to ban partial birth abortions, criticized Democrats over the fillibuster of judge Samuel Alito, and also supported the Iraq War far more than many other Democrats. Yet, Ford supports universal health coverage and has opposed Republican items like CAFTA.

The Campaign

Bob Corker had the tougher primary campaign and ran against ex-Congressman Ed Bryant and ex-Congressman Van Hilleary. In that race Corker was the moderate, while Bryant and Hilleary split the conservative vote. It tended to be a rather nasty campaign, but Corker had the advantage for the majority of the time. Corker's personal financial advantage was evident and his ability to run ads far and above the other two candidates helped place him well-ahead. Bryant, most famous for his position as one of the House prosecutors in President Clinton's impeachment, surprised some at the end of the day when he garnered 34% of the total primary votes, but was still far shy of Corker's 48%. Some claimed that Corker could not have won if Hilleary did not run (Hilleary even expressed some regret at that, but I don't think it is true). There was a lot of mud slinging.

Harold Ford Jr, faced no such challenge and basically walked into his nomination for the Democrats.

Corker has had the edge on money, but has spent more as well. Corker fired his campaign manager around the first of this month. Neither candidate has had any trouble with getting big names into the state. President Bush has visited twice for Bob Corker, Laura Bush has visited once. Former President Clinton has visited once for Harold Ford Jr, and other known Democrats have visited as well.

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I don't think this state has ever seen such a negative statewide campaign with such a massive amount of advertising. The majority (from what I've seen) have come from the Corker/RNC campaign, but only slightly. Much of the state is weary of the ads, which are on all the time. I believe that Middle Tennessee is especially inundated with them as Harold Ford's support has solidified in West Tennessee and Bob Corker's support has solidified in East Tennessee (traditionally Democratic and Republican territory respectively).

Many of the ads are bizarre or just plain stupid. Frequently mocked are the Bob Corker and his mother ad (he also did a couple of these for the GOP primary race) and the Harold Ford in church ad. A running joke is that you cannot recognize Bob Corker without his mama nearby.

Bashing immigrants is a common theme in both candidate's ads (as well as the Gubernatorial race). Corker has faced some sharp criticism on this because of INS citations and fines his construction business received back in the 1990's.

Analysis

Any way you cut it Ford's campaign team has done the better job. That's not a biased assessment, just a fact (even the local Republican radio folks agreed). This can be seen in two sets of polls. First the general poll on voting intentions. Corker led this race after the nominations were confirmed by 12 or 13 points. In the span of roughly nine weeks, Ford's campaign is either in a dead heat or has a lead of upwards to 4 to 7 points. That's quite a turnaround. The Ford lead grows with registered "likely to vote" voters.

The other poll of significance is the favorable/unfavorable ratings. It may be the negative advertisements or the ability of the electorate to get to know Bob Corker, but he started with generally favorable ratings which have since been completely flipped. What Ford's team has done is define Corker.

The debates have shown some effort by Corker to define Ford. Primarily he has tried to tie Harold Ford Jr to the Ford family political machine of Memphis. Yet, again Ford has done a very good job of countering this (something he obviously foresaw before he ever ran for this seat). FOr those not familiar with Tennessee politics, the Fords are well known in Memphis politics and have had some fairly corrupt members. Though, in fairness, there is nothing that ties Harold Ford Jr to any such corruption other than he is related to them.

Right now, I'd say the state is leaning towards Ford, which would be a a Democratic pick-up. The caveat is that anything can (and often does) happen in politics. Ford has one ad that talks about Corker's time as Chattanooga's mayor where the city's garbagemen received no pay increases for the four years, while Corker (who is a millionaire) voted to give himself a couple of pay raises. I think that might hit home with a few voters. The majority of Corker's and the RNC ads are about border security and terrorism. I just don't see Corker, who uses his mama in other ads and is generally viewed as an effete wealthy country club-type, as gaining traction with that tactic. Moreover, Ford's moderate tone is capable of winning enough of those voters anyway.

You have made the comparison of the Islamic extremists to the Nazis, yes, but you have not actually given a reason why your comparison of current events to history is the only valid one

Show me one more valid, in your opinion

How about comparing Islamic extremism to Islamic extremism? A novel approach indeed. Quite frankly you don't have the grasp of history or political philosophy to make a valid comparison between Nazism and Islamic Militancy, which is perhaps worse than your attempt to compare the same to fascism.

But when push comes to shove i wouldn't bet on N. Korea coming out on top in any war with its neighbors or us for that matter.

It isn't about coming out on top. For a despotic regime like North Korea, it is all about survival. An atomic weapon simply adds to the guarantee of survival. Look at the threats they are receiving now. Sanctions? Isolation? How are you going to further isolate the most isolated nation in the world?

hnumpah is correct, I believe, that this is primarily a defensive move. North Korea is saying to the rest of the world: "You may hate us. You may wish to be rid of us. But if you try anything, then the blood of Tokyo, or Seoul is on your hands. We may miss. But we might not. Are you willing to take that risk?"

Sure, North Korea is likely not to win the war - but at what cost are you willing to invade them and find out? I think that is the ultimate question. We have a 60 year-old technology that more nations will discover and pursue. The world may look quite different in two or three decades, where interventionist policies won't be so easily undertaken.

You let me know when you get that phone booth.

What I said regarding Hastert was that I see no possible reason for him hiding said actions by Foley. It makes no logical sense, no amount of money or promises on Foley's part could have made Hastert logically choose to hide Foley's actions had Hastert had full knowledge of them.

It isn't my fault what you read and don't read. By the way I have never defended this Rep. Studds actions, nor have I ever heard of him until recently. You can't honestly expect anyone to spend their time condemning actions of politicians. It would be a full-time job. In fact, there are probably people who do just that.

Do you not read anything? *sigh*

I said that the human slavery issue was an aside and has nothing to do with this conversation.

Now try again. This time try explaining why lack of slavery equals freedom in your definition. Surely that wasn't the case in South Africa or the Southern United States in the 1950's and 1960's.

Using this standard, both the United States and Canada have slaves as well.

Did I suggest otherwise?

It isn't a part of this conversation though and is not (I don't think) government sanctioned.