Author Topic: Comparing Greece & California  (Read 788 times)

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Kramer

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Comparing Greece & California
« on: June 08, 2011, 12:02:55 PM »
http://www.thetrumpet.com/print.php?q=7074.0.123.0

The president of Europe’s Central Bank was asked in January whether Greece posed a threat to the monetary union. He replied that the crisis in Greece was greatly overstated and told reporters that if they wanted to worry about something, they should worry about California.

Right now, Greece is synonymous with an economic red alert. Without a bailout, the entire country could face debt default. Standards of living are plummeting; unions are already staging mass strikes, and money is fleeing the country.

Is it possible California—the seventh-largest economy in the world—could actually be in a more dangerous situation? Could California set off a Greek-style economic crisis in America? Some say yes.

Too Much in Common

In some ways, Greece and California are very similar. Both have high unemployment and falling tax receipts. Both also have bloated public sectors with lavish retirement and pension plans that are underfunded and unsustainable. Both have gridlocked governments comprised of politicians incapable of working together to make hard choices.

Greece and California are also members of a larger union that shares a common currency. Each state also has specific trade relationships as well as financial interrelations with others inside the union. And both states have the worst credit ratings within their unions. As with Greece, it costs more to insure California debt against default than it does to insure Kazakhstan.

Both Greece and California are dominated by special interest groups and handicapped by unions. Chronic overspending has become endemic and uncontrollable in both locales. And both states are bankrupt.

Critics of the economic doomsaying point out that there are big differences between Greece and California. There are differences, but not all of them are good. In some ways, California could actually be a greater threat to its union.

California’s debt is supposedly far less than that of Greece. California’s debt reportedly equals about 7 percent of its economy. In Greece, the ratio is around 100 percent. On the surface, Greece looks much worse off.

In reality, comparing total California debt to total Greece debt is like comparing rotten apples to rotten oranges. To make it a fair comparison, you also need to factor in California’s share of the national debt (which is projected to be $14 trillion by year end). When this amount is factored in, the $68 billion that the state owes (as of the end of 2009) balloons to $1.65 trillion—which means that California’s actual debt-to-gdp ratio is almost 90 percent.

Yet, as horrendous as a debt-to-economy ratio of 90 percent is, California’s ratio is even greater. When including unfunded Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid liabilities into the equation, California’s state debt-to-gdp ratio soars to a stratospheric 400 percent.

That means California debt equals more than $200,000 per man, woman and child. Where will the money come from?

A California debt default would be far more damaging to the U.S. than anything a Greek failure could produce. Besides being far smaller, Greece’s economy makes up only 3 percent of the total eurozone. California, however, composes about 12 percent of the U.S. economy.

Plus, a California default could disproportionately hurt many U.S. states. According to the ecb president, Jean Claude Trichet, cumulative U.S. state budget deficits amount to 12 percent of America’s gross domestic product. In Europe, the figure is only 7 percent.

Looking in the Mirror

Portugal may be a problem. But so is Ohio. Think things are tough in Ireland? Look at Kentucky. Is Spain having unemployment issues? So are Florida, Illinois and Michigan. While analysts focus on Greece, they are missing the rhinoceros in the flower garden.

David Walker is the former U.S. comptroller general, which means he was America’s top auditor. He says America only has a couple of years to deal with its deficit problems before it ends up like Greece. America could face a “crisis of confidence with regard to our own finances” if we don’t start being honest with our budgets, he says. Walker, who is now working to bring attention to America’s financial irresponsibility, warns that a big part of America’s problem is its use of “creative accounting practices”—the same ones that burned Greece.

Events in Europe surrounding Greece are pivotal, and could have dramatic economic and geopolitical ramifications (article, page 2). But when comparing Greece and California, don’t forget that California’s economy is five times larger. The EU could survive without Greece, but America will not survive without California.

Unfortunately for California and the rest of America, watching the Greece crisis is rather like looking in a mirror. •

Kramer

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Re: Comparing Greece & California
« Reply #1 on: June 08, 2011, 12:23:09 PM »
Obama Presses Europe, Pledges Help for Greek Crisis
OBAMA, MERKEL, EUROPE, UNITED STATES, AUSTSERITY, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, GREECE, PORTUGAL, GERMANY
Reuters
| 08 Jun 2011 | 02:05 AM ET

President Barack Obama on Tuesday urged European countries and bondholders to prevent a "disastrous" default by Greece and pledged U.S. support to help tackle the country's debt crisis.

Obama, whose political prospects have suffered from persistently high unemployment and ballooning U.S. debt, has pinpointed the euro zone crisis as one foreign "headwind" hitting the U.S. economy.

After a meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, he stressed the importance of German "leadership" on the issue - a hint that he expects Berlin to help - while expressing sympathy for the political difficulties European Union countries face in helping a struggling member state.

"I'm confident that Germany's leadership, along with other key actors in Europe, will help us arrive at a path for Greece to return to growth, for this debt to become more manageable," Obama said.

"But it's going to require some patience and some time. And we have pledged to cooperate fully in working through these issues, both on a bilateral basis but also through international and financial institutions like the IMF."

A proposal for a second Greek bailout package worth 80 billion to 100 billion euros over three years was taking shape, euro zone sources said.

Merkel, under political pressure at home to avoid being the financial savior for other struggling European countries, said Germany understood its role.

"We've seen that the stability of the euro as a whole will also be influenced if one country is in trouble," she said.

"So we do see clearly our European responsibility and we're shouldering that responsibility, together with the IMF." With U.S. unemployment at 9.1 percent, Obama has blamed outside forces for impeding the economy, including high fuel prices, the earthquake in Japan and the euro zone crisis.

"America's economic growth depends on a sensible resolution of this issue," he said.

"It would be disastrous for us to see an uncontrolled spiral and default in Europe because that could trigger a whole range of other events."

Reforms, Foreign Policy

Obama said Greece had to make structural reforms and instill greater transparency in its economy.

But his main message was aimed at EU countries - and, by default, wealthy Germany - to step up to help Athens.

"Other countries in the euro zone are going to have to provide them a backstop and support," he said.

"And frankly, people who are holding Greek debt are going to have to make some decisions, working with the European countries in the euro zone, about how that debt is managed." The euro debt problems dominated discussions between Merkel and Obama, who also touched on foreign policy issues such as the wars in Afghanistan and Libya.

Obama welcomed Merkel at a formal ceremony on the White House lawn with firing cannons and military musicians adding to the pomp of an official visit.

Later in the evening Obama and his wife Michelle hosted Merkel and her husband, Joachim Sauer, for a state dinner, where the president awarded her the "Medal of Freedom" - the highest U.S. civilian honor.

Obama noted the event, held open-air in the Rose Garden to take advantage of a warm Washington evening, was the first such state dinner of his presidency for a European leader.

"Tonight we honor Angela Merkel, not for being denied her freedom, or even for obtaining her freedom, but for what she achieved when she gained her freedom," Obama said.

In public the two leaders referred to each other by their first names and joked about looking different from their predecessors.

Obama is the first black U.S. president and Merkel is the first female chancellor of Germany.

Their show of partnership did not mask differences between them - and Libya has been one of those issues in the past.

The United States cautiously endorsed military action in Libya while Germany confounded its NATO partners by refusing to take part.

Obama said he would expect Germany to help once Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi was gone and recovery work was needed in the North African country.

He thanked Merkel for Germany's stepped-up support in Afghanistan, which he said had freed up other NATO members to be active in Libya.

Merkel, meanwhile, advocated for French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde to take over the top job at the International Monetary Fund, according to a German delegation source.

The United States has stayed publicly neutral in the race for that post, saying it wants the best candidate to win.
Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for restrictions.

URL: http://www.cnbc.com/id/43321461/

Kramer

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Re: Comparing Greece & California
« Reply #2 on: June 08, 2011, 12:25:38 PM »
So as you can see Obama HAS to bale out California. Cali is dragging down the nation's economy.

Folks, this is just one more reason OBAMA will never get reelected in 2012!!

Looks like you can always find a bright spot in a crappy situation after all! C Ya Barry!

Christians4LessGvt

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Re: Comparing Greece & California
« Reply #3 on: June 08, 2011, 12:42:43 PM »
Kramer it is staggering what outta-control govt nanny-state spending has done to our country

After reading your Greece/California comparison...and watching what is happening

I have been thinking when the pooh-pooh hits the fan
when the coming economic collapse happens

I hope Texas can secede......we have the energy, farms, manufacturing, to do just fine

Other states may decide they want to go-it-alone as well

Why should certain states pay for other outta control states?

It's immoral and wont stand.....I'd just as soon leave and tell
DC to stick it where the sun dont shine!


"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!" - Ronald Reagan - June 12, 1987

Kramer

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Re: Comparing Greece & California
« Reply #4 on: June 08, 2011, 12:46:44 PM »
C4U

Along those lines why would any young person join up and go fight a war? For what, so Obama and his elite cronies can party it up and have a good time on the backs of all of us. I'm with you, to hell with the USA, at least the USA of today. Not the USA that I grew up in!

Christians4LessGvt

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Re: Comparing Greece & California
« Reply #5 on: June 08, 2011, 12:53:37 PM »
If Texas seceded the Mexican border would quickly be sealed....
No more of this invader non-sense crap
We'd be fine....and prosper
The problem DC well understands
Is others would quickly see how well it works
And they'd say "I wants some-uh-dat too"
And others would be leaving their sorry ass in DC.
And if enough "producers" leave
What all the tit-suckin leeches gonna do?
« Last Edit: June 08, 2011, 01:03:17 PM by Christians4LessGvt »
"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!" - Ronald Reagan - June 12, 1987