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Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? How Halloween masks and the Washington Redskins could reveal the next president.
By Rob Manker, Chicago Tribune
Between now and Nov. 6, no shortage of polls and pundits will attempt to predict the big winner on Election Day — Democratic incumbent President Barack Obama or Republican challenger Mitt Romney. Some such indicators will claim to be scientific, others will not. These fall into the latter category.
The height factor
The theory: The taller of the two presidential candidates will win the election.
Accuracy: The taller candidate has won 19 times and lost eight in presidential elections dating to 1896, according to a New York Times analysis conducted in 2008. (Two elections featured presidential candidates of the same listed height — Bill Clinton vs. George H.W. Bush in 1992, and Woodrow Wilson vs. Charles E. Hughes in 1916).
This year: President Barack Obama is 6 feet 1 inch tall; challenger Mitt Romney reportedly is 6-foot-2.
Resulting prediction: Romney
The Redskins Rule
The theory: If the NFL's Washington Redskins win their last home game played before the presidential election, the incumbent party will win the election. If the team loses that game, the incumbent party loses.
Accuracy: The rule has held true in 17 of 18 cases, with only 2004 an exception — though some proponents of the Redskins Rule argue that because the 2004 incumbent, George W. Bush, had not won the popular vote in 2000, the rule still held.
This year: The Redskins play the Carolina Panthers at home on Sunday, Nov. 4, two days before the election.
Resulting prediction: TBD (
Washington lost; resulting prediction is a win for Romney)
The World Series factor
The theory: If an American League team wins baseball's World Series, the Republican candidate will win the election. If a National League team prevails, so does the Democratic candidate.
Accuracy: The rule has held true in 11 of 15 elections since 1952 — including the last three — but in only 15 of 26 overall.
This year: The World Series is scheduled to end no later than Nov. 1, featuring the American League's Detroit Tigers versus the St. Louis Cardinals or San Francisco Giants of the National League.
Resulting prediction: TBD (
NL won, resulting prediction Obama wins)
The 7-Election
The theory: The coffee cup color selected by more customers at 7-Eleven locations will predict the winner of the election — more blue cups taken, the Democrat wins; more red cups chosen, the Republican prevails.
Accuracy: Cup selection has accurately predicted the outcome of every presidential election since the promotion was introduced in 2000, the convenience store chain says.
This year: Customers have grabbed blue cups 59 percent of the time and red cups 41 percent, according to 7-Eleven.
Resulting prediction: Obama
The masks
The theory: The party with the better-selling Halloween masks of its nominees on buycostumes.comwill win the election.
Accuracy: The mask vote has accurately predicted the outcome of each presidential election since 2000, according to buycostumes?.com.
This year: The masks of Obama and Vice President Joe Biden have been chosen by 52 percent of voters to 48 percent for Romney and his running mate, Paul Ryan.
Resulting prediction: Obama
The Lakers law
The theory: If the Los Angeles Lakers reach the NBA Finals in an election year, the Republican candidate will win the presidency.
Accuracy: The Republican has won on eight of nine such occasions — in 1952 (as the Minneapolis Lakers), 1968, 1972, 1980, 1984, 1988, 2000 and 2004. The lone exception? Obama's win over John McCain in 2008.
This year: The Lakers did not reach the NBA Finals.
Resulting prediction: This indicator does not apply ... but you might want to keep an eye on those Redskins. (
Actually, since they did not reach the finals, the indicator is Obama wins.)
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012-10-20/news/ct-talk-presidential-election-indicators-1021-20121016_1_presidential-election-election-day-mitt-romneySome others:
Since 1940, Scholastic magazine has relied on kids to tell us who will be the next president. The kids have been right 16 out of the last 18 times. Between August 15 and October 10, nearly 250,000 children under 18 from across the country voted for whom they wanted as president in a survey conducted by Scholastic magazine and 51% of the kids picked Obama, 45% Romney and 4% other. Even kids in swing states pinpointed Obama the winner. Prediction: Obama
And sports, it turns out, is also a crystal ball. USA Today’s Paul Myberg has compiled a few examples of sports results predicting the next president. The most interesting one, ahead of Saturday’s big Alabama-LSU college football grudge match, is that since 1984, LSU won in years when Republicans were elected. Meanwhile, an Alabama victory bodes well for the Democrats. (
Alabama won. Prediction: Obama)
http://keepingscore.blogs.time.com/2012/11/02/how-sports-can-forecast-the-presidential-election/
