UKRAINE'S EAST-WEST CONFLICT MOVES INTO STAGE TWO
While the West is focused upon the Ukraine conflict, there are actually two equally coordinated thrusts by Russia and China targeting US and NATO world dominance:
1) Putin has made his first successful move in Eastern Europe by taking back the first of the former Soviet States (Crimea) and
2) China is beginning her power play aimed at dominating the first chain of islands to her East. Someday she intends to take everything from Japan down through Australia. It's important to watch both of these future enemies as Russia and China have a coordinated global strategy to attack the West on two fronts. I admit that the initiation of this two pronged thrust by Russia and China has begun sooner than I expected, and although economic and political factors will still delay the actual world war for several years I will discuss what this recent move means for future timing.
Hitler was a far less patient predator than either Russia or China, which is typical of eastern philosophy and thought that seems to plan strategic moves decades in advance. Hitler, in contrast, moved directly to war in about a year's time (Sept 1938 to Sept 1939) from his taking control of the Czech Sudetenland and Austria, to the Polish invasion. This rapid movement gave him the element of surprise and didn't allow the allies to react quickly enough to stop him.
Thinking the Russians and Chinese would delay showing their hand until everything was ready for their big move, I was a bit surprised to see Putin make his play in Ukraine several years in advance of Russia's optimal military preparedness for war with the West. Of course, he was facing a growing anti-Russian rebellion in Ukraine that was legitimate, even if aided by Western intervention. Perhaps he had to move now while he could still manipulate the outcome with his paid opposition leaders.
Putin's early move on a former Soviet state could either mean that war can come sooner than expected, or that the process of fomenting a war will take longer than in WWII. I still don?t think Russia is ready to go to full scale war.
From a big picture point of view, while it is true that Russia is more advanced militarily than Hitler ever was leading up to WWII, Russia's enemies in the West are also far more advanced than Britain was both in quantity and sophistication of war machines, though they are not any better at exerting a will to deter. The West has always been lulled into promises of peace, especially when their leaders harbor a globalist wish for war (without getting the blame for it).
Russia knows she needs a lot more military might before taking on the West, and also needs more time to develop the rationale or justification for war in this age when people naively don't believe a World War could ever happen, let alone a nuclear holocaust (after the ruse of the cold war nuclear threat appearing to be defused). China also has to be ready to back up any Russian move, and it's too early for that, but getting closer.
Could the Ukraine situation suddenly get worse enough to provoke a full scale war between Russia and NATO/US in the near future? Possibly. One shouldn't delay preparations. But, here's what would have to happen for such an outcome to be likely:
1. Russia would have to annex Crimea (done)
2. Russia would have to start a formal military invasion of Eastern Ukraine (meaning with regular Russian forces), triggering treaty obligations between the West and Ukraine. (Possible)
3. The West would have to contest this invasion with a full military counter-strike. (Unlikely)
When Ukraine (as part of the phony fall of the Soviet Union) gave up its nuclear weapons in 1994 it gained security guarantees with the West as part of the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, between the US, Britain and Russia, pledging to respect Ukraine territorial integrity, a pledge that was broken by Russia in its recent takeover of Crimea
But there is one major factor that can provide an excuse for both parties so this does not rise to a major war: that Crimea was not originally part of Ukraine. Crimea had its own semi-autonomous parliament after it was annexed un-democratically to Ukraine by Stalin in 1954. Thus, the Crimean gambit can be effectively dismissed as not being a crucial violation of Ukrainian sovereignty. In fact, that compromise has already been reached on both sides, despite the war talk.
Putin smartly induced his lackeys in Crimea to put this up for a vote of the people, so it met all the requirements of a democratic choice?and that also made the US and NATO look bad, even hypocritical, relative to our history of allowing people to declare their independence, when we opposed this result of the will of the Crimean people.
With a touch of political finality, Putin declared Crimea an independent sovereign state and the Russian Duma has voted to allow Crimea to join the Russian Federation.
And, as an indication of Ukraine's acceptance of the new status quo, Ukraine has given up any military bases in Crimea without a fight. Well, there was one suspiciously staged and minor fight between pro-Russian ?militia? and lightly armed Ukrainian employees at a Ukrainian Naval base, but the Ukrainians just walked out with their belongings' clearly not a real war.
In short, Crimea was an obvious and easy choice for Russia?s first move in luring a former Soviet State back into the Russian Federation. Its people, except the original Tartars, are overwhelmingly Russian in orientation and language.
It's important to note from a PR point of view that everything Russia has done in Crimea has been done with "irregular forces" so that if push comes to shove, Putin can always claim it wasn't really the Russian military in there. Of course, we all know it was Russian Special Forces in their unique military vehicles and automatic weapons, but they often wore masks and had taken off all insignias showing their unit designations.
So forget about all the bluster of last week's news about Ukraine moving troops and equipment toward Crimea. There never was any intent to contest this secession of Crimea. Ukraine's quick decision to pull out all troops from Crimea following the seizure of military bases, including the Ukrainian navy's headquarters in the Black Sea port of Sevastopol, indicates that there was no intent to pick a fight over this.
Even the capture of the commander of the Ukrainian navy, Admiral Sergei Haiduk, by militia backed by masked gunmen was staged for political purposes. Though everyone locally knew the captors were Russian Special Forces, Kiev demanded that Crimea's pro-Moscow leaders release him or face "an adequate response". He was released about 6 hours later, so the show goes one and a fight never ensues.
Most importantly, as I pointed out last week, Russia doesn't have an excuse to escalate the Ukraine conflict to a world war unless the US and NATO intervene militarily. So far, it's all talk and no action on the part of the US and NATO?and running drills and joint military exercises is not "action," just more political theater.
Summing up, the rhetoric is much harsher than the reality and will likely continue to be so. Take this typical commentary by Haaretz on the Ukrainian Ambassador's claims before the UN for example:
Russia may be preparing a further military incursion to Ukrainian territory, Ukraine's ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva, Yurii Klymenko, told UN diplomats at a briefing on the human rights situation in Ukraine on Thursday.
"There are indications that Russia is on its way to unleash a full blown military intervention in Ukraine's east and south," Klymenko said. His statement was widely supported by other ambassadors, but challenged by a Russian diplomat, who read a prepared statement justifying Russia's actions so far.
This claim has no substance in fact. There is no large massing of Russian troops on the border with eastern or southern Ukraine, although Russia is planning on moving more personnel into bases in the Crimea to make sure the secession is not reversed.
Klymenko also said that Ukraine will not initiate a trade war with Russia and hopes to use the World Trade Organization to resolve any such disputes initiated by Russia. "We are very much interested in having normal trade relations with Russia," Yurii Klymenko said, adding that he expected Russia to restrict trade in the wake of its annexation of Crimea.
Those are not sentiments indicative of a coming world war, they are a plea for business as usual, which you will find typical of this new administration in Ukraine. They are only feigning to be in the West's camp in order to gain more money and military assistance from the West.
For the benefit of those just joining the World Affairs Briefs, I need to remind readers that my unique analysis of this Ukraine crisis and phony coup has never been refuted: that only the pro-Russian leadership in Ukraine could have ordered the Berkut (riot police) and the regular police forces to stand down and let the opposition take over. Only the pro-Russian leaders behind the scenes could have ordered the Russian controlled Party of Regions to switch sides and vote for Yanukovych's ouster. It was a staged coup, just like the phony fall of the Soviet Union, and no one in the West, except me, is calling them on it.
What that means is that as long as the Russians control the visible opposition leaders, there will not be any real fighting between Ukraine and Russia. And that's why I don?t think Russia is going to invade Eastern Ukraine in the near term.
I predict that in this second stage, however, they will continue to drum up public protests and unrest in the Russian speaking areas of Eastern Ukraine demanding independence sometime in the future. But because this region is formally part of Ukraine, Russia will have to move more slowly than in Crimea where it already had major military interests. This second stage of the Ukraine crisis is where I see Putin slowing down, allowing for more time to continue his military preparations, while allowing the Ukraine situation to fester toward a future intervention.
Meanwhile, the larger diplomatic and economic battles will emerge as the primary focus in the near term. Token sanctions (and they are almost laughably minor) and counter sanctions are being hurled back and forth between Russia and the US and Europe is trying to evade them at all costs.
The sanctions Obama is trumpeting to the world are aimed only at 20 Russians in Putin's inner circle who can be treated as "bad guys" but nothing against Russian trade itself. Russia countered with sanctions against nine US officials, barring them from entering Russia, including House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio; Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev.; and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., which is utterly meaningless. They aren't traveling to Russia anyway so what difference does it make?
Europe has the most to lose in the sanctions game, and is back peddling as fast as its leaders can while claiming to still be tough on Russia. Europe, as you all know by now, is highly dependent not only on Russian natural gas, but Russian oil and fuel products for transportation. France, which is supplying Russia with several high tech Mistral class warships is reassuring its defense industry that it's still "business as usual" with Russia.
Americans, for their part, have little stomach for more US involvement in European matters. A recent poll by Pew Research, crossing party lines, indicates that most feel that the US Should "not Get Too Involved" in Ukraine.
Those who say it is more important for the U.S. taking a firm stand against Russian actions in Ukraine were asked if the U.S. should consider military options or only political and economic options. Most of this group --- 19% of the public overall --- said the U.S. should consider only political and economic options in addressing the situation, while just 8% of the public think that military options should be considered. Just 16% of Republicans and smaller shares of Democrats and independents (5% each) say that military options should be considered.
Gary North comments that "This is good news for Putin, but it is bad news for the Council on Foreign Relations." He's referring to the globalists and their warmongering agenda. But his most important commentary is about Americans, historical aversion to intervention in other?s affairs:
Before a military conflict involving the USA, non-intervention is the permanent condition of the American people. This does not change. This is why the government needs an occasional Pearl Harbor for Americans to get behind the next war [all of which are attacks provoked or done by US black ops to justify war]... the foreign policy establishment needs saber rattling from time to time, and these days, it is clear that there is nothing in America's interest that justifies rattling sabers.
But that won't stop them from creating more conflict. Western globalists are content to allow the Russian ruse to go forward, as both the West and the East want the tension that the pro-Russian Ukrainian opposition feigning friendship with the West'can provide.
I predict that the sanctions will continue to escalate but not in ways that seriously affect trade between East and West. The West, for example threatened to oust Russia from the G-8, but Europe is now denying that. Get used to hearing various different factions in the EU go back and forth on their stories (as happened this week when various French officials contradicted each other on the Russian G-8 membership), but in the end it will be business as usual for a few more years.
Meanwhile, another little ex-Soviet mini state is longing to get back into the Soviet Union as Businessweek said.
Trans-Dniester, a tiny, self-proclaimed "independent republic" wedged between Moldova and Ukraine, has a hammer and sickle on its flag, a parliament called the Supreme Soviet, a Soviet-sounding national anthem praising "the friendship of peoples," and about 200,000 Russians out of a total population of 510,000. Following Crimea?s annexation, it also wants to join the Russian Federation.
Don't laugh; the Russian Parliament will take up their petition next week. But the issue of Ukraine aid is an essential part of this conflict, just as increased economic aid and trade with Russia was a principle reason for the Soviets to fake their own demise.
This week, Sen. Marco Rubio stopped his opposition to the Ukraine aid bill in Congress?typical of Rubio who plays to the Right-wing but always switches sides to the globalists when it matters. The Democrats added into the aid bill approval of IMF reform which will not only double national quotas for the IMF but erode US and EU voting power as well. This is part of the future globalist monetary system they will eventually enforce upon all nations, so it deserves to be watched.
CHINA FOLLOWING RUSSIAN LEAD
Marc Faber, of the Gloom and Doom Report, is respected in many circles despite the eccentric title to his financial newsletter. Though not really aware of the globalist conspiracy to create war, he does see that the Ukraine crisis and Putin?s success will provide increased impetus for China which is intending to do the same in its strategic backyard.
Mr. Putin did the right thing from his perspective?By that I mean that there was interference by foreign powers in Ukrainian politics [minor compared to Russian control of the phony opposition] that were unfavorably from the perspective of Russia... Crimea is strategically most important for Russia. It has practically no meaning strategically to the United States or to Europe. But for Russia it's very important.
That's a given it's Russia's only real warm water port for its fleet, but all of the "interests" of Russia are ultimately aggressive, not defensive. Faber tends to agree with me on the next point:
I don't think that Russia will move further into Ukraine unless there is serious provocation. But I doubt it will happen. But I think the wider implication is that we have now border lines. In other words, the US would intervene if a foreign power would establish bases in Haiti and in Cuba and so forth and so on, and the Chinese will react if foreign powers threaten Chinese access to resources.
This is very important because the occupation of Crimea moving to Russia gives essentially a signal to China that one day they can also move and seize some territory that they perceive that belongs to them.
It's more than what China perceives "belongs to them." China has a stepping-stone strategy and taking the disputed islands away from Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam is a probing exercise to test US resolve a resolve the West does not have because its globalist overlords want this future war to drive the rest of us into their future New World Order. Faber also had some cogent remarks to the declining Chinese economy.
overall, if I look at export figures from China, and they are very closely correlated to overall economic growth, then there is a huge discrepancy between what China reports and what China's trading partners are reporting.... So which figures are more reliable? I think the figures of the trading partners of China are more reliable. And they would suggest that growth has slowed down considerably.
There was another story out this week about how many of China's wealthy who bought expensive high rise real estate in Hong Kong are now selling at steep discounts. Apparently they are hungry for cash another sign of the bubble beginning to deflate in China but don't expect a collapse. This is compounded by the high degree of unreported inflation in China as the government prints more money to keep favored corporations afloat. Faber continues:
the fact is simply that Chinese stocks have been just about the worst performing stocks since 2006. Now analysts will dismiss that and say everything is prefect in China, but the stock market does not seem to believe everything that the government is saying about the economy. And clearly there are strength signs in the Chinese economy. In particular, as I said, we have this huge explosion of debt. Debt as a percent of GDP has increased in the last five years by more than 50 percent. Total debt is now over 215 percent of GDP, and a lot of it is trade finance that is being rolled over.
...because China is a large importer of resources. In other words, iron ore, copper, zinc (inaudible). And at the same time, they are a huge exporter to commodity producers of their own manufactured goods, as well as Korean exports... So if the Chinese economy slows down, commodity prices industrial commodity prices are likely to remain under pressure. They already come down a lot. They remain under pressure and the resource producers have less money. In other words, the Brazilian [market] goes into recession. The Middle East does not grow as much as before. Central Asia, Africa and so forth all contract, and then they buy less from China and you have a vicious cycle on the downside.
In addition to that, there are lots of funny deals. A friend of mine who analyzes China very carefully, Simon Hunt (ph), he pointed out that trade finance between one state-owned enterprise and a private company has amounted to over $5 trillion by continuing to roll over the same collateral several times. There?s lots of funny things that are happening in China. And when the whole thing unwinds it will be a disaster.
At its core, the Chinese economy is under pressure because international demand for its products is declining as consumers in the West continue to unwind their reliance on debt-based spending. Governments have seen only slight declines in the growth rates of debt and deficit spending but they are still increasing.
That means that China will have to make do with less economic growth to fund its militarization since it doesn't have oil resources to sell as does Russia. But China has a pretty hard timetable for military growth and that's why she is resorting to more internal inflation to keep the government and military sector growing. Militarizing a faltering economy is what dictatorships do, so expect that to happen this year, as well as one major military incursion in the Far East. The Philippines is the most likely target since the Philippine Army and Navy is set for a small showdown with their small military presence on the Spratly Islands
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