IIRC, this question was raised in the past four to six weeks and fairly extensively debated. For the record, I felt there'd be a surge in violence and then as the Iraqis sorted out their shit, one big bad guy not unlike Saddam would probably rise to the top, kill off his opposition and the general level of violence would sink back down to about where it was when Saddam was in power. Subject to the caveat that that is my best guess and nobody - - including the so-called "experts," a really sorry bunch of prognosticators - - knows any better.