from today's dailykos
ABC/WaPo: Obama Takes Clear Lead, 52-43 Over McCain
by DemFromCT
Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 09:38:35 PM PDT
In a major shift in the polls, Barack Obama has brought Democrats home, and now leads McCain by a clear majority. If borne out by other surveys, this will represent a tectonic shift in the electorate. According to this new poll, Obama has done something Gore and Kerry could not... reach 50% in a pre-election poll.
John McCain, otoh, is leaking enthusiasm from virtually all sub-groups.
ABC/WaPo, 9/22 (9/7) Likely Voters, Moe +/- 3
Obama 52 (47)
McCain 43 (49)
More voters trust Obama to deal with the economy, and he currently has a big edge as the candidate who is more in tune with the economic problems Americans now face. He also has a double-digit advantage on handling the current problems on Wall Street, and as a result, there has been a rise in his overall support. The poll found that, among likely voters, Obama now leads McCain by 52 percent to 43 percent. Two weeks ago, in the days immediately following the Republican National Convention, the race was essentially even, with McCain at 49 percent and Obama at 47 percent.
As for Sarah Palin:
Over the past two weeks, the percentage of independents with favorable views of Palin dropped from 60 percent to 48 percent. Among independent women, the decline was particularly sharp, going from 65 percent to 43 percent. Her favorable rating among whites without college degrees remained largely steady, but among those with college degrees, it dropped nearly 20 percentage points. [LOL - - Draw your own conclusions.]
And that reflects on McCain, as does his "fundamentals of the economy are sound."
Among Republicans, conservatives and white evangelical Protestants, strong enthusiasm for McCain's candidacy has dropped by double digits.
End result? Democrats in this poll have come home.
Independents, key swing voters, now break for Obama, 53 percent to 39 percent, reversing a small lead for McCain after the Republican convention. McCain is the choice of 86 percent of Republicans, while about as many Democrats, 88 percent, back Obama.
Bottom line is that everything we have been seeing (and saying) is catching up with McCain. If the election were held today, he'd lose and lose badly. McCain cannot win if D's go for Obama more than R's go for McCain.
It will be hard for the media to claim this as a virtual tie. Given the small amount of time we have left, it will also be hard for Team McCain to change the subject or run against the media.
The campaign, of course, is not over yet. This may be a Wall Street bounce. Still, this should give us something meaty to talk about before the debates.
