Author Topic: Who's not running?  (Read 1167 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

sirs

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 27078
    • View Profile
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Who's not running?
« on: January 24, 2007, 02:27:30 AM »
MORE'S MERRIER

Things sure are hopping in Democrat-land, what with two new entries in the White House sweepstakes this weekend joining five others who got in even earlier. With Bill Richardson following Hillary Clinton into the race, we now have seven candidates running for the big nod only three weeks into 2007 - and it's possible a few others might yet join them, including the party's past two presidential nominees.

Not to mention, at any moment, Al Sharpton and his hair gel.

So there could be as many as 10 people sharing a stage three months from now, on April 26, when the first Democratic presidential debate will be held in South.

With almost everybody scratching for TV time and seeking to make an impression, it will be riot, disorder and chaos on that stage.

And if you could get frontrunner Hillary Clinton to speak to you candidly in an unguarded moment - which probably happens sometimes, although God knows when and with whom - she'd probably tell you that she'd be thrilled if there were 10 more candi- dates up there with her.

Hillary begins this race with a 16-point lead in the Real Clear Politics poll of polls. In every serious survey for the past two years, her tally is somewhere north of 30 percent. According to Real Clear Politics, she even outdistances the combined total of her two leading rivals, Barack Obama and John Edwards - and this after Obama's two months of ecstatic and uncritical press.

But she's not just going to waltz into the nomination, as Obama-mania demonstrates. And Edwards' obsessive effort to dominate the political scene in Iowa, with its cockamamie first-in-the-nation caucus system, all but ensures Hillary will get some bad press at the outset of the balloting next year.

There's clearly some anti-Hillary sentiment among Democratic party voters, though the size and durability of her lead in the polls indicates it's far less intense than Republicans (and many in the media) fantasize it is.

Therefore, a crowded primary field is in Hillary's interest. If there are several serious rivals for the nomination as well as a bunch of far-less-serious contenders, it's more likely that the non-Hillary vote will be diffused throughout the field rather than coalescing around a single threatening challenger.

What's more, the temptation for her rivals in that first debate and other public forums all year will be to start attacking each other - to bring down a closer competitor and so garner the attention and collect the voters that might have gone to another second-tier candidate.

Thus, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson's announcement on Sunday that he was getting into the race was a boon to Hillary, even if it might have seemed to step on her toes a little.

He's the sort of interesting second-tier candidate - governor of a small state that swings back and forth between Republicans and Democrats in presidential balloting, but with substantial foreign-policy experience - who can at least draw some attention away from Edwards and Obama.

And there's another way his candidacy is surprisingly helpful to Hillary. We all know how historic the Obama bid is. But Richardson will be the first Hispanic to make a serious run for the presidency as well. Two minority bids are better than one, from Hillary's perspective, because that may dilute a little of the Obama magic.

At the same time, Hillary needs her own Historic First diluted as much as possible - her Historic First Woman candidacy. Over time, she'll benefit if that fact is downplayed rather than highlighted, because her candidacy shouldn't seem like a leap into uncharted territory but an entirely rational and safe bet.

So she has reason to be happy with Richardson's decision - maybe happy enough to give him serious thought as her veep choice. Which is probably what he's angling for anyway.


Article





« Last Edit: January 24, 2007, 02:29:04 AM by sirs »
"The worst form of inequality is to try to make unequal things equal." -- Aristotle

Xavier_Onassis

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 27916
    • View Profile
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Who's not running?
« Reply #1 on: January 24, 2007, 07:38:55 AM »
Let's wait and see if the Republicans can come up with someone even MORE monumentally incompetent than Juniorbush. Cheney immediately springs to mind, but he is pretty much loathed by everyone.
"Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana."

Plane

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 26993
    • View Profile
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Who's not running?
« Reply #2 on: January 24, 2007, 09:20:22 AM »
Let's wait and see if the Republicans can come up with someone even MORE monumentally incompetent than Juniorbush. Cheney immediately springs to mind, but he is pretty much loathed by everyone.


I understand your point , but Bush will not be avalible to run .


Do you remember the joke about the two guys running from the Bear?

As they ran one shouted to the other "Why are we running , we can't out run a bear!"
The other shouted back"I can out run you !".

Hillary has clout and money , but to sure the Democratic nomination he is going to use a lot of her resorces up.

Then Hillary will face a Republican who might have a lot of money and clout herself.