If cigarettes had a $2 tax per pack, this would cause more people to quit than a $1 tax. At somewhere around, I am guessing $20 perpack, damne near everyone will quit or start growing or rolling their own. Dried grapevines will probably become substitutes at around $10 per pack.
I don't think a tax of $1 per pack would discourage a large number. My sister refuses to quit, even though she once told me that that she thinks she probably spends more on ciggies than food.