Partisan Trends
Party ID: Dem 41.5% GOP 31.8%
Sunday, March 02, 2008
As the public image of the Democratic Party shifted from Congress to the Presidential campaign trail, the number of Democrats in the United States has soared. In fact, during the month of February, the Democrat?s numerical advantage over the Republican Party grew to the highest level ever measured by Rasmussen Reports.
In February, the number of Americans who consider themselves to be Democrats jumped to 41.5%, the highest total on record. Just 31.8% consider themselves to be Republicans. The partisan gap?a 9.7 percentage point advantage for the Democrats?is by far the largest it has ever been. The previous high was a 6.9 point edge for the Democrats in December 2006. Rasmussen Reports tracks this information based upon telephone interviews with approximately 15,000 adults per month and has been doing so since November 2002.
The 9.7 percentage point advantage for Democrats is up from a 5.6 point advantage a month ago and a 2.1 point advantage two months ago. The surge for the Democrats is especially notable because it reversed a modest trend in the GOP direction that unfolded over much of calendar year 2007 (see history from January 2004 to present).
The gains for the Democrats were especially strong among women. In February, 46% of women considered themselves to be Democrats, up from 40% in December. The number of women identifying themselves as Republicans fell from 33% to 29% during that same time frame.
Among men, 36% were Republicans in December and 35% said the same in February. The number of men who are Democrats increased from 33% in December to 36% in February.
Data for February shows that 40% of adults under 30 are Democrats while just 27% now identify with the GOP. Republicans trail among all age groups but do best among forty-somethings where the gap is just four percentage points (38% Democrat, 34% Republican).
Democrats have a huge advantage among those who earn less than $40,000 annually and a two-percentage point edge among those in the $40,000 to $75,000 range. In December, Republicans had a five-point advantage among that income bracket.
Democrats currently enjoy an eighteen-point advantage among retired Americans, a thirteen-point edge among those who work for the government, and a seven-point lead among those who work for someone in the private sector. Republicans retain a four-point lead among entrepreneurs?those who are self-employed or own their own business.
Thirty-nine percent (39%) of Investors are Republicans, 37% are Democrats. In December, those figures were 40% Republican, 32% Democrat.
These results are based upon tracking surveys of 15,000 adults per month. The margin of sampling error is less than one percentage point, with a 95% level of confidence. Please keep in mind that figures reported in this article are for all adults, not Likely Voters.
In 2004, the Democrats began the year with a 2.3 percentage point edge over the GOP. That grew to 4.0 points by March before moving in the Republican direction for the rest of the year. By Election Day in 2004, the edge for Democrats was a mere 1.6 percentage points.
In 2006, the Democrats began the year with just a 1.6 percentage point advantage. That grew to 6.1 percentage points by November.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows the race for the White House remains close. Democrats start the season with an advantage in the Electoral College.
Democrats continue to have a significant advantage on ten key issues tracked by Rasmussen Reports and lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/party_affiliation/partisan_trends
