Author Topic: When confronted with the truth  (Read 1912 times)

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Amianthus

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Re: When confronted with the truth
« Reply #15 on: October 07, 2008, 10:56:00 PM »
Just out of curiosity, at the bi-annual marathon mortgage sales, how much opportunity do the buyers have to evaluate the securities?  Is each one a package with a credit report, survey, photo, realty tax bill and appraisal or are there agencies that pre-screen and rate packages by the bundle into various classes of security, A, B, C, D etc.?

Bi-monthly (as in twice a month, once around the 4th and once around the 19th). They are grouped using a variety of criteria. Each bank will bundle up 100 or so mortgages that have similar properties, and then the software at Fannie and Freddie (and I assume Ginnie) evaluates about 80 or so pieces of information to give a statistical performance average for that group of mortgages. The buyers then look at the computer generated averages and decide to buy or not buy. If a batch of mortgages is not bought, the bank then splits them back up and re-packages them. Many mortgages go through 5 or 6 cycles before they're bought.

Fannie and Freddie then do a similar slice and dice on the purchased mortgages to create pools for the bonds that they issue.
Do not anticipate trouble, or worry about what may never happen. Keep in the sunlight. (Benjamin Franklin)

Xavier_Onassis

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Re: When confronted with the truth
« Reply #16 on: October 07, 2008, 11:54:32 PM »
This bundling of mortgages, and separating them into derivatives and packaging them in a way in which the actual degree of risk is unknown seems to be the cause of the current mess. Why should this not be regulated?
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Amianthus

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Re: When confronted with the truth
« Reply #17 on: October 08, 2008, 07:27:21 AM »
This bundling of mortgages, and separating them into derivatives and packaging them in a way in which the actual degree of risk is unknown seems to be the cause of the current mess. Why should this not be regulated?

The risk is not "unknown". The problem actually stems more from the other financial instruments, such as credit default swaps, where the banks are insuring each other for defaults. The defaults went up more than anticipated, which caused a liquidity crisis. Long term, we're stable - it just that banks are short on liquid assets right now, so they're pulling back on credit to horde reserves. That's the part that affecting the rest of the system. There will be some pain as banks are forced to merge or buy each other out, but in a while all the losses will be ironed out, and we'll be on the way up again in the markets.

Actually, pooling mortgages as Fannie and Freddie do really reduces risk. You are able to minimize the risk to the bank by bundling up mortgages and spreading out the results of any defaults. Because of fraud (some of it Fannie, some of it at other banks) the risk was calculated to be less than it actually was, so some banks did not have enough reserves. You cannot regulate fraud.
Do not anticipate trouble, or worry about what may never happen. Keep in the sunlight. (Benjamin Franklin)

Xavier_Onassis

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Re: When confronted with the truth
« Reply #18 on: October 08, 2008, 08:08:48 AM »
Why not eliminate or regulate the use of credit default swaps, then?
"Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana."

Amianthus

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Re: When confronted with the truth
« Reply #19 on: October 08, 2008, 08:15:31 AM »
Why not eliminate or regulate the use of credit default swaps, then?

That's been suggested. Many financial analysts are suggesting this very action. It's essentially insurance, so the same cash reserves normally required for insurance should also be required for backing credit default swaps.
Do not anticipate trouble, or worry about what may never happen. Keep in the sunlight. (Benjamin Franklin)

Xavier_Onassis

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Re: When confronted with the truth
« Reply #20 on: October 08, 2008, 03:07:24 PM »
That is what needs to be done, then.

Anything that is said to have value, much actually have the value stated, or eventually a collapse will occur. Bad money always drives out good money.
"Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana."