Currency War Is The Start Of A 21st Century Geopolitical Struggle For Resources

[Plane]

Sometimes, using Bollinger Bands one can get an idea of where the price of a stock is compared to its previous trends. Also useful are moving averages.

Fidelity, Scott and Schwab all include these and a useful description of how they can be used on their websites.

Of course, future trends often defy prediction. But there are these technical indicators that often prove more helpful than just  hunches.

http://www.bollingerbands.com/services/bb/

I havn't tried anything like this.

What does the upper and lower limit of the band represent?

Is that the point at which some factor kicks in strongly , or would it just be a measure of the volatility pattern the particular item has been observed to have in the past?

So if it is ordinary for a commodity to move twelve points in a period , would it need a band twentyfour points wide as an envelope? Or are you looking for a factor that provides an upper limit and another factor that provides a lower limit?

Can fourier analysis be applied ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourier_analysis
Fourier analysis has many scientific applications — in physics, partial differential equations, number theory, combinatorics, signal processing, imaging, probability theory, statistics, option pricing, cryptography, numerical analysis, acoustics, oceanography, optics, diffraction, geometry, and other areas.

http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a778415810~frm=titlelink



Fourier analysis allows an observed pattern of waves to be broken apart into a system of simpler waves, sometimes converting apparent chaos into an observeable order.

Or does the auction system of pricing make the rules of real chaos apply?

[Plane]

Does a top of market give any warning sign? Are plunges after a realised top inevitable?

Gosh I dunno Plane....my sell was actually for 3 reasons.
I was in a mutual fund but more recntly I prefer the flexibility of an ETF better.
so I thought this weeks plunge gave me a chance to.....

#1. jump out of the storm for a few days

#2. take some profit

#3. allow me to when/if I get back in....go with an ETF

I am not sure about this but I think that these prices depend most on what people think about the future.

If a lot of investors are like you , then you have done well to be amoung the ones who begin to hedge early.

[Xavier_Onassis]

I am not sure about this but I think that these prices depend most on what people think about the future.

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You are almost right.

When people think other people think a stock will rise and buy it, the price goes up.
When people think other people think that a stock will decline, the price will drop.

Prices do not depend on what people think: they depend on what people think other people will think.

I buy GLD at $129.73 because I think that at a future date not too far off, someone will be willing to pay $150 (or some price above the purchase price) for it. It is not because I get my jollies knowing that somewhere at Schwab, a computer credits my account with shares of GLD.

Most stock has something like "value $.10 per share" written on it.

Success in the market depends on being able to correctly guess what other people think about the value of a share, an option, a bond, a put or a call.