Author Topic: War Predictions for 2011  (Read 6271 times)

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bsb

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Re: War Predictions for 2011
« Reply #45 on: January 01, 2011, 12:17:35 AM »
You read that Foreign Policy article and so many of the problems are self-inflicted. It's like our own economic meltdown with much of it having been brought on by Republican greed and southern ignorance.
It starts at the northern fringe of New Jersey and moves down to Florida and over through Mississippi to Texas. It's like a swarm of greed and ignorance starting at the first tollbooth on the Jersey Pike, slashing through the tobacco fields of Virginia and the Carolinas, down through the once war torn city of Atlanta, into the orange groves of Florida. Then it moves across the Ignorance Belt of Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi, before reaching its final destination among the rattlesnakes and tarantulas of Texas.

There is only one true saviour America, the fine liberal minds of the North East. Bow down to us before it's too late.

bsb

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Re: War Predictions for 2011
« Reply #46 on: January 01, 2011, 12:21:25 AM »
Right.

I remember the day that small banker in Dothan, AL invented sub prime mortgages.


Kramer

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Re: War Predictions for 2011
« Reply #47 on: January 01, 2011, 01:19:28 AM »
You read that Foreign Policy article and so many of the problems are self-inflicted. It's like our own economic meltdown with much of it having been brought on by Republican greed and southern ignorance.
It starts at the northern fringe of New Jersey and moves down to Florida and over through Mississippi to Texas. It's like a swarm of greed and ignorance starting at the first tollbooth on the Jersey Pike, slashing through the tobacco fields of Virginia and the Carolinas, down through the once war torn city of Atlanta, into the orange groves of Florida. Then it moves across the Ignorance Belt of Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi, before reaching its final destination among the rattlesnakes and tarantulas of Texas.

There is only one true saviour America, the fine liberal minds of the North East. Bow down to us before it's too late.

bsb

bad news for ya -- the North East is what's taking our country down the tubes...

sirs

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Re: War Predictions for 2011
« Reply #48 on: January 01, 2011, 01:56:53 AM »
So insulting posters and urging other patrons to shun same poster is your way of encouraging serious debate  Interesting approach.

And again with the misleading "urging".  Yea, and it was working too.  Thanks for derailing the initial effort.  Hopefully, it'll get a 2nd wind, but I won't hold my breath.  As it relates to the idiocy of supposed lying and fraud, minus any actual examples of such, we'll just have to consider the source
"The worst form of inequality is to try to make unequal things equal." -- Aristotle

Plane

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Re: War Predictions for 2011
« Reply #49 on: January 01, 2011, 02:25:01 AM »
I also think we should invade Canada. Because places like Texas and Arizona can't protect their borders we in the North will be needing more room.

bsb
http://satwcomic.com/matter-of-perspective

That would be moveing north , hope they arn't to smart for yas!

Plane

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Re: War Predictions for 2011
« Reply #50 on: January 01, 2011, 02:46:09 AM »
War seems to be a part of human nature , I remember the shock expressed when it was discovered that Chimpanzees also go to war.

Chimpanzee war is something like a lot of Human war is , the larger and more aggressive attempt to expand their borders and monopolise some critical resources.

So is war natural or is it wrong?

I am very interested in North Korea vs South Korea officially at stalemated war for longer than my lifespan so far, the imagined threat of Southern invasion is the political crutch that the otherwise weak North Korean government uses as an excuse for devoting every resource towards military strength. There is no real potential for Koreans to benefit from the cold war that they have ongoing and there is no possible benefit for Koreans in making the cold war a hot one either , such a war would use up and ruin everything they could possibly be fighting for, the involvement of the US is important but doesn't amount to solution for the problem , ditto the involvement of China the first and second largest economy's and two of the strongest militarise in the world are fascinated with the decisions of one of Asia's "little dragons" and one of the purest Communisms as the two systems divide one people.

When I have met Koreans , they were offended by a National Geographic map I had which showed a bright red border placed firmly in between the north and the south of Korea. To them the DMZ is offensive because it exists and it should not, they are a single nation unfortunately divided by politics.


The Chimpanzees at war at least hope to have something to gain from the war , humans will fight even with no hope of loot and a certainty of pain.
« Last Edit: January 01, 2011, 03:39:35 AM by Plane »

Christians4LessGvt

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Re: War Predictions for 2011
« Reply #51 on: January 01, 2011, 09:25:10 AM »
Amianthus whats up with your avatar?
"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!" - Ronald Reagan - June 12, 1987

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Re: War Predictions for 2011
« Reply #52 on: January 01, 2011, 10:52:37 AM »
Amianthus whats up with your avatar?

Redoing my website. Should be fixed now.
Do not anticipate trouble, or worry about what may never happen. Keep in the sunlight. (Benjamin Franklin)

Christians4LessGvt

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Re: War Predictions for 2011
« Reply #53 on: January 04, 2011, 08:29:24 AM »
SIRS....here is an interesting e-mail I got yesterday.......

Rumors of War

A few months ago, Jordan's King Abdullah warned that, barring some kind of agreement
between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, there would be "war before year's end."

The year ended Friday without an agreement.  

Clearly the King was wrong. But only about the timing - not about the war.  
The war planning continues on both sides.

One of the Wikileaks documents revealed Israeli preparations for a major war,
probably against Iran's Hezbollah forces in Lebanon. But not Iran itself.

''I am preparing the Israeli army for a large-scale war since it is easier to scale down to a smaller
operation than to do the opposite,'' Lieutenant-General Gabi Ashkenazi was quoted as saying in
a cable sent from the US embassy in Tel Aviv.

According to General Ashkenazi, while Iran has more than three hundred missiles capable of reaching
Israel within ten minutes, Hezbollah has thousands more located just across the border in Lebanon.

According to the cables, Hezbollah has more than 40,000 rockets capable of striking anywhere in Israel
and Hamas now has the capability to reach Tel Aviv.  

And a senior member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard said during an address carried by an IRGC-backed
website that Tehran would begin targeting American generals for assassination in retaliation for the
assassination of two senior Iranian nuclear scientists in November.

The IRGC commander, identified as Brig. Gen. Mohammed Reza Naghdi, was the first ranking member of the
Iranian military to openly threaten US military officers.


"The filthy Americans and the Zionists should not think that with killing our scientists, they can divert our
nation from its path of jihad and scare us
," Naghdi said.

But Iran can't really afford to escalate things too much at the moment.  One of the scientists targeted was
Majid Shariari who headed up the country's national program to battle the Stuxnet worm that has set back
Iran's nuclear program by as much as two years, according to some experts.

According to the Economist?s 2011 cover story, "peace becomes a little more fragile and the danger of war
increases. Sadly, there is reason to believe that unless remedial action is taken, 2011 might see the most
destructive such war for many years."

"Such a war would bear little resemblance to the previous clashes between Israel and its neighbours.
For all their many horrors, the Lebanon war of 2006 and the Gaza war of 2009 were limited affairs.
On the Israeli side, in particular, civilian casualties were light. Since 2006, however, Iran and Syria
have provided Hezbollah with an arsenal of perhaps 50,000 missiles and rockets, many with ranges
and payloads well beyond what Hezbollah had last time. This marks an extraordinary change in the
balance of power. For the first time a radical non-state actor has the power to kill thousands of
civilians in Israel's cities more or less at the press of a button."

The Economist goes on to speculate, "A war of this sort could easily draw in Syria, and perhaps Iran."

The Economist is correct in assuming that the scenario it describes would easily draw in Syria, but I
don't believe Iran.  Neither does General Ashkenazi, who calls the threat from Iran "grave" but the
threat from Hezbollah "acute".

The Economist' scenario would lead to the most destructive war not in many years, but the most
destructive war in the history of the modern Middle East.

King Abdullah confidently predicted that war would break out in 2010.  
The Economist appears just as confident that it will break out sometime in 2011.  

Obadiah, Psalms 83 and Isaiah 17 all describe the same war foreseen by the Economist and
identify all the same combatants as the Economist.  

Except that according to all the experts, thanks to Stuxnet, Iran won't be ready for at least two years.  
The author of the Economist article didn't foresee that when he was writing his piece last month.

But the Author of the Bible foresaw it when He was inspiring Obadiah five hundred years before Christ.

Iran has a different appointment with destiny.

Assessment:

Adding up all that we know so far and throwing in a little New Year's speculation, one could almost
make the case for the Psalms 83 conflict in 2011 -- followed by the Gog-Magog War in 2012,
assuming the two-year time frame Iran needs to clean up Stuxnet. And no additional sabotage.

But I think a more powerful argument can be found in the fact that the prophecies of which we
speak were penned thousands of years before the fact.

They cite peoples and nations and whose destinies and alliances would intersect exactly as foretold
and all in a single generation, somewhere in the then-distant future.

Most of these alliances didn't exist in any form until after the rebirth of Israel in 1948. None of the nations
involved in the current Israeli-Arab conflict existed until after the 1917 Balfour Declaration that first announced
the creation of a Jewish homeland.

Yet here they all are, assembled precisely as foretold, restored from the dustbins of history to their original incarnations
-- to face the judgments pronounced against them as they were when those judgments were pronounced.

Once restored to their original ethnic identities, they resumed the exact same conduct that earned the judgments
in the first place, lest the sins of the fathers be unjustly visited upon their descendants.  

The Edomites of today picked up exactly where the Edomites of antiquity left off just as soon as the Jews of antiquity
were restored as the Israel of today.

Conduct that may result in what the Economist predicted as "the most destructive such war for many years."
Don't miss the forest for the trees.  

The detailed precision of Bible prophecy as it unfolds before us is simply staggering.

"And when these things begin to come to pass, then look up, and lift up your heads,
for your redemption draweth nigh." (Luke 21:28)

Perhaps in 2011?
"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!" - Ronald Reagan - June 12, 1987

sirs

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Re: War Predictions for 2011
« Reply #54 on: January 04, 2011, 12:03:15 PM »
Iran wasn't on that original list I started the thread with, but who knows.  I'm a little surprised it wasn't given the current dynamics of Israel & Iran
"The worst form of inequality is to try to make unequal things equal." -- Aristotle

Xavier_Onassis

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Re: War Predictions for 2011
« Reply #55 on: January 04, 2011, 12:13:30 PM »

The detailed precision of Bible prophecy as it unfolds before us is simply staggering.
==================================================================

Biblical prophecy makes no more sense than the gibberish of Nostradamus. Jesus isn't coming back, there will be no Armageddon or seven headed dragons or the woman barfing blood. It's all simply the rantings of some ancient lunatic that was unfortunately literate and gullible morons have been quoting him ever sense.

There will not be a war because Abdullah of Jordan says that there will be one. The Palestinians have much to lose and nothing to gain from a war with Israel, which they could not possibly win.

All the Middle Eastern countries do is swagger and try to scare one another. "Christians" has been predicting a war for going on to four years that I know of, and it has yet to happen.
"Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana."

bsb

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Re: War Predictions for 2011
« Reply #56 on: January 04, 2011, 12:28:54 PM »
>>The detailed precision of Bible prophecy as it unfolds before us is simply staggering.
"And when these things begin to come to pass, then look up, and lift up your heads,
for your redemption draweth nigh." (Luke 21:28)
Perhaps in 2011? <<


Ah huh, sure. Have you got your "The End is Near" sign made yet?

BTW, what does the bible say about this years Super Bowl? Do the Patriots win?

bsb

sirs

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Re: War Predictions for 2011
« Reply #57 on: January 04, 2011, 12:36:33 PM »
No, that'd be the Falcons
"The worst form of inequality is to try to make unequal things equal." -- Aristotle

Christians4LessGvt

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Re: War Predictions for 2011
« Reply #58 on: January 04, 2011, 01:23:44 PM »
Also SIRS dont count China out for conflict in 2011......(see below)

The Year of the Silver Hare

By John Butler on Mon, 3 Jan 2011

Whereas much of the world follows a solar calendar, with the year beginning and ending around the time of the winter solstice, there are those that follow a lunar calendar instead, including of course the world's most populous country, China. Their new year is still one month away and, this time round, will be that of the hare in the 12-year cycle of their zodiac?and also that of yin metal, or silver in the cycle of the five elements. While we are not astrologers, we nevertheless appreciate the meaning of these cycles for the Chinese, who currently face unprecedented, potentially destabilising economic circumstances. According to tradition, the hare is not comfortable in such situations, in which its behaviour becomes unpredictable and potentially dangerous.

Those of us who recently celebrated the New Year are now returning to work or preparing to do so, hopefully following a nice holiday with family and friends. But the Lunar New Year is still one month away. The Chinese calendar follows the lunar cycle and also contains multi-year cycles. One of these is a twelve-year cycle corresponding to the Chinese zodiac of animals, including the legendary dragon. The other cycle, called Wu Xing in Chinese, is less well-known outside of China and corresponds to the five elements: Fire, Earth, Metal, Water and Wood, with each element having a yin, or female aspect, and also a yang, or male aspect.

2011 is thus not only the Year of the Hare, following the 12-year zodiac cycle, but also the year of yin metal, following the Wu Xing. As yin is associated with the feminine and the moon, the most prominent yin metal is silver. 2011 is thus not only the Year of the Hare but the year of silver. It should therefore be no surprise to find Chinese jewellers currently offering a range of commemorative silver pendants of hares or of the Chinese language symbol for hare, as shown on the right.

Not coincidentally, the Mandarin Chinese word for silver is yin. Another interesting fact about yin metal, or silver, is that the Chinese symbol for silver also means "relating to money or currency", which should be no surprise given that, through the ages, silver rather than gold has been the predominant monetary metal in China, with gold, although more valuable by weight, being used primarily for decorative or artistic purposes. The Chinese symbol for silver as metal is shown here on the left; that for silver as money is shown on the right.

While we are not followers of astrology, we do appreciate the importance the Chinese place on their zodiac and also the Wu Xing. Even for those not particularly religious, these concepts might guide or at a minimum inform Chinese thinking on a wide range of issues, in much the same way that a secular, agnostic European might nevertheless draw extensively on the core concepts of the Judeo-Christian tradition. As the New Year is naturally a time to reflect and consider what, if anything, one might wish to change in life, so it is instructive to consider how China, arguably the greatest rising economic and political power in the world, might be thinking about the rapidly approaching Year of the Silver Hare.

As with all creatures in the Chinese zodiac, the hare has a well-developed personality, some key aspects of which are:

Hares tend to be friendly yet generally keep to themselves;

They are conservative, insecure and generally pessimistic and don't welcome change or conflict;

As such, they undertake nothing without a thorough weighing of all pros and cons;

They tend to be peaceful and occupy themselves with commerce and domestic affairs, unless confronted with an exceptional situation, a dramatic turn of events or an insurmountable obstacle, in which case their behaviour can become unpredictable, erratic, desperate or even dangerous;

At first glance, the qualities above would seem to be somewhat characteristic of modern China generally, which has not been an aggressive, expansionary power; which has generally resisted dramatic change, both political and economic; which has been focused primarily on commerce and domestic affairs; and which has not been easily provoked. Yet consider the final bullet: Just as there are circumstances under which the hare might suddenly behave in unpredictable or even dangerous ways, so this might also be the case with China. Consider: It was almost exactly 60 years ago, the last time the Year of the Hare was approaching, when China, confronted by crumbling North Korean resistance to a rapidly-advancing US-led military force, decided to pre-emptively attack the US by secretly crossing the Yalu river in huge numbers. Yet despite supposedly reliable intelligence and also non-stop aerial reconnaissance, this came as a complete surprise to the US forces, commanded by General MacArthur, who was forced to watch his seasoned troops beat a hasty, demoralising retreat in horrible winter conditions, suffering massive casualties in the process. At one point, MacArthur became so desperate to regain the initiative that the requested permission to use the atomic bomb. President Truman refused and, in defiance, MacArthur went public with criticism of the decision. Notwithstanding his legendary reputation and huge popularity, he was considered a serious potential presidential candidate at one time?within weeks he was relieved of duty, never again to return to command.

Now we don?t mean to imply that we think China is at risk of acting unpredictably in military fashion as China is not currently being so provoked. Yet arguably China is nevertheless faced with exceptional economic provocations, brought about by recent US actions, including those of both the US government and Federal Reserve. Specifically, China is confronted by the glaringly obvious lack of US fiscal discipline and the aggressive monetary policy of the Fed, both of which threaten to destabilise not only the US economy but, by implication of the dollar being the world's reserve currency, the global economy.

The sudden, surprising decision in Washington late last year to extend both tax cuts and unemployment benefits may have been labeled a political compromise by the interested parties but, as is evident to the rest of the world, including China, it was in no way an economic compromise, in that nothing was given up. Indeed, you could just as well say that the US has sent a message to the rest of the world that it will NOT compromise in its pursuit of artificial, fiscally-engineered stimulus. Some weeks previously the Fed had already made its latest move, announcing the start of a programme of monetary-engineered stimulus, to purchase up to $600bn of Treasuries, known in the financial jargon as QE2. In previous Amphora Reports we have used the word pathological to describe the Fed's relentless pursuit of inflation at all costs. At this point, the word seems an equally apposite description of US fiscal policy.

The Chinese are therefore faced with the prospect that the US will stop at nothing to stimulate economic activity, no matter how unsustainable, inflationary and destabilising. The US simply refuses to allow their economy to adjust and restructure naturally notwithstanding wide and growing global criticism. (In this respect, current US political behaviour is eerily reminiscent of the run-up to the Iraq war, even if it is economic rather than foreign policy that is at issue.)

Global US Treasury holdings are soaring, fuelling inflation

Why does the increasingly pathological behaviour of the US with respect to economic policy present the Chinese with such an exceptional situation? As mentioned above, the US dollar is the world's primary reserve currency. As such, dollar assets comprise the bulk of global bank reserves. The People's Bank of China and central banks the world over hold huge amounts of dollar assets, including of course US Treasury securities?claims on the present and future US taxpayer. As current US economic policies are highly expansionary, they are stimulating activity all over the world. As an indirect result, consumer price inflation in many countries, including China, is now soaring, threatening economic and, in some cases, political instability. China has recently raised interest rates to try and dampen these pressures but it is highly unlikely that an incremental rate increase or two is going to maintain economic stability. More action is going to be required.

How much? It is impossible to know. This is because no one can know exactly what impact US economic policies will have either on the dollar or on Treasury securities. As with all assets, there is no simple linear relationship between supply, demand and price. Whereas US Treasury and dollar money supply, at least in the short run, might be reasonably easy to forecast with accuracy, this cannot be said of demand, which can be fickle and unpredictable. Indeed, global investors confronted by the exceptional situation of a US government bent on creating inflation at all costs simply cannot be expected to continue purchasing Treasury securities indefinitely. And neither can China.

Is there a potential straw that breaks the dollar's back, which results in a sudden drop in demand for US assets and thus sends Treasury yields sharply higher? We can imagine quite a few. For example, what of the deteriorating finances at the US state and municipal level and the growing risk that, at some point, Washington will have to craft some sort of rescue package, financed no doubt with US Treasury issuance? What of the continuing foreclosure crisis and associated lack of transparency of US bank balance sheets? And what of commercial real estate, more and more of which is now also being foreclosed upon? What of soaring commodity prices which, according to available data, are narrowing profit margins for US firms? If, as a result of these and other factors, the economy fails to respond as hoped to the above stimulus measures, what does this imply for US assets generally?

We don't purport to know what China is going to do in response to increasingly pathological US economic policy and the global consumer price inflation it is fuelling. We suspect the Chinese themselves don't know. But one is naturally led to ponder whether this year, being that of yin metal, or silver in the Chinese elements cycle, is the year in which China considers implementing some major economic reforms. Perhaps they are going to raise interest rates dramatically. Perhaps they will revalue their currency by a substantial amount. Perhaps they are going to impose widespread wage and price controls. Perhaps they are going to escalate an already simmering trade war with the US. Any of these actions could have a large, quite possibly negative impact not only on the Chinese economy, which is at clear and present risk of a hard landing; but also, by implication, on global asset values and certain industrial commodities.

There can be no doubt that the Chinese face exceptional, unprecedented economic challenges. It may be 2011, not 1951, but the prospect of a Chinese surprise seems comparably high today. In any case, US authorities seem unconcerned about China, even complacent. Sure, they might be confident in their intelligence and in their reconnaissance. But they would do well to consider that the Year of the Silver Hare is about to begin.

"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!" - Ronald Reagan - June 12, 1987

sirs

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Re: War Predictions for 2011
« Reply #59 on: January 04, 2011, 01:37:55 PM »
While I can consider China becoming a more hostile entity in the 2011 global community, I see no faction, U.S. included ready to facilitate a military response from them

No, if we fold on our financial debt to them.........well, who knows what their reaction would be
"The worst form of inequality is to try to make unequal things equal." -- Aristotle