Jordan Bids to Join Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Bloc

[Henny]

Some of the biggest news in the region - Jordan has formally made a bid to join the GCC (https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Cooperation_Council_for_the_Arab_States_of_the_Gulf). The application is basically considered a formality, and rapid acceptance is anticipated.

Morocco has just been accepted as well.

This is, from the perspective of a person living here, the best news I've heard in ages. The economic benefits will be vast, as with GCC membership laborers can move freely (without residency permits and visas) between the countries. Oil prices in Jordan will certainly go down. From my perspective, just being able to enter Saudi without a month-long wait for a visa that I might not get anyway is tremendous - business has been seriously hampered by the restrictions there. I have 2 passports, so Saudi was my only problem, but my Jordanian colleagues, for example, also had to apply for advance visas for UAE, Qatar and Kuwait and were often rejected.

Reflecting the Jordanian optimism, the Amman Stock exchange trading value was JD11.9 million on Tuesday; on Wednesday it more than doubled to JD25.7 million.

But that's all the optimism. Now think about it from a Western perspective. If the GCC is bringing in other non-Gulf Arab countries to stem the revolts and relieve the economic burdens of the people that is driving unrest, what does that mean for the rest of the world?

For one thing, as I understand, it will also be a military union.

For another, countries like Jordan which are supported by the U.S., in exchange for playing nice with Israel, aren't going to be so desperate for American money.

On the other hand, it is considered to be a union to form a strong alliance against the Iranian threat in the region, which is good for everyone in the world but Iran.

Thoughts?

[BT]

How will this affect Jordans existing treaties with Israel?

[Henny]

How will this affect Jordans existing treaties with Israel?

No idea yet. I imagine that it won't affect the treaties per se, but that Jordan will be in a better position to more vehemently oppose illegal settlement building.

[BT]

Is the two state option with existing borders viable on the street?

[Henny]

Is the two state option with existing borders viable on the street?

No way - never. That's the one caveat to any peace talks - back to the pre-1967 borders.

[BT]

Why is that important?

[Henny]

Why is that important?

Because it is their land, and it is now illegally occupied.

BTW, I'm talking about the Arab street here... not realities. Reality is that the release of the classified Palestine papers revealed that what is now being negotiated for is 22% of the pre-1967 land. At the same time, street opinion is indeed important, because the people have the power to make or break any treaty, as anywhere.

[sirs]

Is the two state option with existing borders viable on the street?

No way - never. That's the one caveat to any peace talks - back to the pre-1967 borders.

Israel already tried the land for the "promise of peace" approach.  I don't think they're willing to take that gamble again.  I could be wrong though

[Henny]

Is the two state option with existing borders viable on the street?

No way - never. That's the one caveat to any peace talks - back to the pre-1967 borders.

Israel already tried the land for the "promise of peace" approach.  I don't think they're willing to take that gamble again.  I could be wrong though

No, Israel has never seriously tried the land for peace approach - it was always with chunks of land excluded, citing their need for secure borders.

(I am not trying to get into any arguments about whose right, whose wrong, who supports Israel and who doesn't - just the plain facts and my opinion on "Arab Street." And the whole GCC thing and all of the excitement.  )

[Xavier_Onassis]

Israel has tried everything except serious negotiations. They have never tried land for peace. The Sinai and Gaza were never part of Israel, not even in the time of King David.

Netanyahu is typical of the Israeli position: he says he is for a two-state solution, but every time they get close, then in a "totally unrelated incident" Israelis grab off some more land or build some more buildings for Jews and the talks are ended, and Israel grabs some more land and spends several millions more in propaganda to convince simpletons in the US that it is really really trying, but those Arabs are crazy. This has been the pattern for decades.

For Jordan and Egypt to join with other Arab states in any alliance will result in more pressure put on Israel to actually negotiate. Fatah in the West Bank has ended the intifada and started to stress economic development. It is time for Palestine to become a country.

[Plane]

I don't see how the Pre-1967 borders will work better now than they worked in 1967.

[Xavier_Onassis]

There must be an accord between Israel and the Palestinians for any borders to work.

In 1967, the political situation was different, the Palestinians were led by Arafat, and there was no agreement.

If both sides can agree on a boundary, that solves one of the biggest problems.

[Henny]

Israel has tried everything except serious negotiations. They have never tried land for peace. The Sinai and Gaza were never part of Israel, not even in the time of King David.

Netanyahu is typical of the Israeli position: he says he is for a two-state solution, but every time they get close, then in a "totally unrelated incident" Israelis grab off some more land or build some more buildings for Jews and the talks are ended, and Israel grabs some more land and spends several millions more in propaganda to convince simpletons in the US that it is really really trying, but those Arabs are crazy. This has been the pattern for decades.

For Jordan and Egypt to join with other Arab states in any alliance will result in more pressure put on Israel to actually negotiate. Fatah in the West Bank has ended the intifada and started to stress economic development. It is time for Palestine to become a country.

Actually, Rabin and King Hussein negotiated seriously. Of course, then Rabin was assassinated by an extremist Israeli, so it was rather short lived.

Interesting to note, another perspective on the GCC entry that I am hearing is that the US pressured the Gulf into helping - because it would probably keep Jordan from going the way of Egypt, Syria, Yemen Tunisia... etc. And that definitely *is* in Israel's interest, even if it ends up resulting in more diplomatic pressure.

So we're "bought" here - and "sold!!" I say! Jordanians never smile and I'm seeing a lot of smiling when someone mentions GCC. The economic relief would be felt from the top to the bottom.

OTOH, I just signed a $40k car loan for a Kia Sportage. Which will devalue to closer to the actual price for such a car, so I am stuck with the damn thing.

[Christians4LessGvt]

Henny....any word on if Iraq will join soon?

I hear that could be a piece of the puzzle
for an Iraqi dinar reval....and I wanna
hurry up and spend 4 day weekends
at the lake with about 12 million!

 

[Xavier_Onassis]

Rabin was the best Israeli leader ever. And of course, some nut had to shoot him.

How does this GCC thing work? As I understand it, your Kia cost about double the real price because of Jordanian taxes. So apparently the GCC would remove import duties and Sportages would then be maybe $21K or so? But what would Jordan use to pay for the government, or whatever was getting all that import duty money?

The new Sportage is pretty highly rated. The first ones had a tendency to roll over, but they have redesigned the entire car.
And they are durable as well.

Why settle for Iraqi dinars when you can be a Paraguayan millionaire for only $250 US?

I have never heard of any country's money being revalued upwards in the last 30 years. I would not hold my breath on that one.