Author Topic: Gingrich takes lead nationally! (shocking to me)  (Read 10495 times)

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Christians4LessGvt

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Gingrich takes lead nationally! (shocking to me)
« on: November 15, 2011, 06:21:59 PM »


Gingrich takes lead nationally

November 14, 2011



Newt Gingrich has taken the lead in PPP's national polling.  He's at 28% to 25% for Herman Cain and 18% for Mitt Romney.  The rest of the Republican field is increasingly looking like a bunch of also rans: Rick Perry is at 6%, Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 3%, and Gary Johnson and Rick Santorum each at 1%.

Compared to a month ago Gingrich is up 13 points, while Cain has dropped by 5 points and Romney has gone down by 4.  Although a fair amount of skepticism remains about the recent allegations against Cain there is no doubt they are taking a toll on his image- his net favorability is down 25 points over the last month from +51 (66/15) to only +26 (57/31). What is perhaps a little more surprising is that Romney's favorability is at a 6 month low in our polling too with only 48% of voters seeing him favorably to 39% with a negative opinion.

Gingrich's lead caps an amazing comeback he's made over the last 5 months.  In June his favorability nationally with Republican voters plummeted all the way to 36/49. Now he's at 68/23, representing a 58 point improvement in his spread since then. As recently as August Gingrich was mired in single digits at 7%, and even in September he was at just 10%.  He's climbed 18 points in less than 2 months.

There's reason to think that if Cain continues to fade, Gingrich will continue to gain.  Among Cain's supporters 73% have a favorable opinion of Gingrich to only 21% with a negative one. That compares to a 33/55 spread for Romney with Cain voters and a 32/53 one for Perry.  They like Gingrich a whole lot more than they do the other serious candidates in the race.

Cain's base of strength continues to be with Tea Party voters, where he gets 33% to 31% for Gingrich, and only 11% for Romney.  This is where you can really see that Gingrich will be the beneficiary if Cain continues to implode- Gingrich's favorability with Tea Partiers is 81/14. Romney's is 43/45. There's a lot of room for Gingrich to build up support with that key group of Republican voters.

Cain's continuing to benefit from doubts about whether the allegations against him are true- 54% of primary voters think they are 'mostly false' to only 24 who believe they are 'mostly true.' Painting himself as a victim of the media is proving to be a good strategy for Cain so far- 61% think it has been 'mostly unfair' to him compared to 26% who say it has been 'mostly fair.' Only 26% of Republicans say they have a more negative opinion of him now than before the accusations surfaced, and just 27% think he should drop out of the race.  All of that's fine but here's the bottom line- Cain's favorability numbers are declining and so is his support. If those trends continue he will fade as a candidate.

The other Republican coming off a bad week is Rick Perry and his numbers have continued on their downward trajectory.  Just 35% of GOP primary voters see him positively to 49% with a negative opinion. That's a 18 point drop compared to a month ago when he was at 42/38. And he's gone from 14% to 6% in the horse race, a bigger decline than Cain's.

If there's any sign of hope for Perry and the other non-Gingrich/Cain/Romney voters it might be the rise of Gingrich. Gingrich has gained 18 points in only 2 months, suggesting that someone else might be capable of gaining 18 points in the 2 months before Iowa as well. And Perry's national favorability of 35/49 is pretty much identical to the 36/49 Gingrich had in June- Newt obviously came back and perhaps Perry can as well, although there's no doubt the clock is ticking.

As for Romney he has not shown any ability to take advantage of the trouble his fellow candidates keep getting themselves into. In July Romney was at 20%, in August at 20%, in September at 18%, October at 22%, and now in November at 18%.  He's been at 20 +/-2% for the last five months in our polling. While the flavor of the month has gone from Trump to Bachmann to Perry to Cain to Gingrich, Romney hasn't had a turn in that seat- he can only hope that his chance in that role will come in January, which is certainly the best time to have it.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/11/gingrich-takes-the-lead.html
"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!" - Ronald Reagan - June 12, 1987

BT

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Re: Gingrich takes lead nationally! (shocking to me)
« Reply #1 on: November 15, 2011, 07:00:26 PM »
The polling company is endorsed by Kos.

Grains of salt suggested.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/track/hire-ppp-track.html

Plane

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Re: Gingrich takes lead nationally! (shocking to me)
« Reply #2 on: November 15, 2011, 07:11:17 PM »
How much does a poll like this reflect disatisfaction with the well established canadates?

BT

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Re: Gingrich takes lead nationally! (shocking to me)
« Reply #3 on: November 15, 2011, 07:13:15 PM »

Christians4LessGvt

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Re: Gingrich takes lead nationally! (shocking to me)
« Reply #4 on: November 15, 2011, 07:25:16 PM »
How much does a poll like this reflect disatisfaction with the well established canadates?

thats exactly what I thought Plane....
new front runners race to the top, then fall like a rock once they open their mouth or are vetted
of course thats what this process is intended to do....to wash everyone except 1 out
But yes it makes me worry about our slate
although i think Obama is sooooo bad we are going to win
i think part of the problem is the American People dont wanna make hard choices
so they like someone until he/she starts making the hard choices
they always like the "greener pasture" until the greener pasture starts making tough decisions
I am afraid thats what we are gonna have for quite awhile
the American people back and forth trading out parties
because they really dont wanna make the hard decisions
they wanna just keep treading water and putting off the root canal thats needed
"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!" - Ronald Reagan - June 12, 1987

Christians4LessGvt

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Re: Gingrich takes lead nationally! (shocking to me)
« Reply #5 on: November 15, 2011, 07:34:40 PM »
The polling company is endorsed by Kos. Grains of salt suggested.

From your source BT:
"In the three campaigns it has polled thus far this cycle, PPP has been within one point in one special House election, within two points in another and within three points of calling a gubernatorial primary"
"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!" - Ronald Reagan - June 12, 1987

BT

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Re: Gingrich takes lead nationally! (shocking to me)
« Reply #6 on: November 15, 2011, 07:57:17 PM »
Rasmussen has as good as or a better record. Zogby used to be good until their bias got in the way. Accuracy seems to be in flux because people are moving away from landlines. Also keep in mind that we are a year away from the elections. What the polls are really telling us is that Romneys support is soft and Huntsman is not on the radar and likely GOP voters haven't decided who their anybody but Romney candidate is because they all have flaws.

Look at the lineup.

Gingrich is the smartest but what kind of manager would he be?
Cain is a good manager but he shoots from the hip
Perry can't debate but he has a good track record in TX.
Bachmann is a SoCon but she also is a fiscal conservative. I'd like her to be the next speaker of the house.
Santorum strikes me as a hall monitor.

And Ron Paul ... well he's Ron Paul



Christians4LessGvt

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Re: Gingrich takes lead nationally! (shocking to me)
« Reply #7 on: November 15, 2011, 09:12:35 PM »
What the polls are really telling us is that Romneys support is soft and Huntsman is
not on the radar and likely GOP voters haven't decided who their anybody but Romney
candidate is because they all have flaws.

nail on head award of the day!
"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!" - Ronald Reagan - June 12, 1987

Michael Tee

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Re: Gingrich takes lead nationally! (shocking to me)
« Reply #8 on: November 15, 2011, 09:34:53 PM »
<<What the polls are really telling us is that Romneys support is soft . . . >>

How so?  How I read the numbers was that Romney support declined only slightly, while Gingrich's shot up, at least in part due to disenchanted Perv supporters, whose support was shown to be much more likely to go pro-Newt than pro-Romney.

The problem that I can't figure out is how to account for that portion of Newt's gain that can't be chalked up to disappointed Perv followers.  Do you simply add in support from other candidates' followers jumping as their respective ships are sinking?

Newt is a real ass-hole but seems to have mastered the art of looking smart.  Whatever he's doing, it's powerful.





















BT

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Re: Gingrich takes lead nationally! (shocking to me)
« Reply #9 on: November 15, 2011, 09:43:56 PM »
When Perry jumped in he quickly surpassed Romney in the polls. When Perry faltered in the debates did Romney gain? NO. Cain Rose as Perry dropped. When Cain started dropping and based on the Lincoln Douglas style debate between Newt and Herman Newt started rising.

Paul has stayed steady same with Bachmann and Santorum. Newt er Huntsman has been flat all year.

The only people who really support him are establicans and dems.
« Last Edit: November 16, 2011, 02:19:52 AM by BT »

Christians4LessGvt

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Re: Gingrich takes lead nationally! (shocking to me)
« Reply #10 on: November 15, 2011, 10:03:40 PM »
Michael if you notice no matter who falls Romney never really gains.
that's why I agree his support is somewhat soft at this point.

Many conservatives think someone that can win South Carolina is
what we need, I say hogwash.....we need someone that can win
South Carolina in Nov as well as Ohio, AND Pennsylvania!

Winning the South Carolinas aint gonna cut it!

BT is only partly correct........
I am neither an "establican or demssupporting"
and I am supporting Romney because I think he
is the least flawed, the most polished, does not suffer
from "deer in headlight" disease and is actually more
conservative than many think.

In the Fall of 2012 I think the conservatives will
fall in line and support Romney (especially after he names a conservative VP)
and at that point Mitt will be a very formidable national candidate
against Obama because Mitt will attract voters a Perry/Newt could not.

Mitt isn't running away with it now,
but that's not all bad anyway.
A wide field helps to keep the Dems
from just having one target to shoot at,
it allows more exchange of conservative ideas
in the public eye, and it will bring Mitt more to the right.

I think Romney will be able to go "toe to toe"
with Obama in debates, he wont forget what agency
he wants to dismantle, he doesn't look like he has personal baggage,
the media will have trouble playing him as a right wing nut job/racist,
he has experience in the executive role, he looks good,
and I just think he is going to be our next president.

We'll see.....





« Last Edit: November 15, 2011, 10:33:21 PM by Christians4LessGvt »
"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!" - Ronald Reagan - June 12, 1987

Xavier_Onassis

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Re: Gingrich takes lead nationally! (shocking to me)
« Reply #11 on: November 15, 2011, 10:04:20 PM »
Newt was driven out of the speakership as well as Congress by his own party. He is a smartass that people find they more they deal with him, the more they loathe him.
"Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana."

BT

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Re: Gingrich takes lead nationally! (shocking to me)
« Reply #12 on: November 15, 2011, 10:39:24 PM »
Consider that Newt was driven from the speakership because he ran the house like he was chief executive. The young turks who came in with the Contract for America is who drove him out. Well them, Dick Armey and Tom Delay.


Michael Tee

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Re: Gingrich takes lead nationally! (shocking to me)
« Reply #13 on: November 16, 2011, 02:11:23 AM »
<<In July Romney was at 20%, in August at 20%, in September at 18%, October at 22%, and now in November at 18%.  He's been at 20 +/-2% for the last five months in our polling.>>

The above is what I can't reconcile with the notion of Romney's support being soft.  It's stable at about 20%, which means that his supporters are staying with him regardless of the ups and downs of the other candidates.    The other candidates (by definition, the ABR bloc) seem to be trading support amongst themselves within a closed (ABR) system.  One or more of the ABRs must drop in order for Newt to rise.  Perry doesn't have much further to fall.  As between Cain and Gingrich, assuming no major bombshells hit the Newtster, Cain is a lot more likely to further haemorrhage support, as the recent Libyan flub mixes in with continuing fall-out from his sexual harassment problems.  That lost support, IMHO, seems likeliest to end up on Newt's side, pushing him higher against both Romney and Cain. 

Perry, at this point, looks like a lost cause, having sunk too far too fast.  I can't even think what kind of unexpected event might restore his chances.

<<Michael if you notice no matter who falls Romney never really gains.
that's why I agree his support is somewhat soft at this point. >>

Yes, that was my point exactly, except that I call that kind of support stable rather than soft.  Romney seems stuck under a glass ceiling, but under that ceiling, his support is pretty much unwavering and unaffected by the ups and downs of the ABR candidates.  IMHO, one of the key reasons he's stuck there is that the Tea Party and ultra-conservative wings of the party just don't trust him as a conservative, hence the ABR sentiment in the first place.  So I think at this point, where Mitt is (say about 20%) is about as high as he's ever gonna get.  For Mitt to win, the remaining ABR majors are going to have to self-destruct.  Perry's already well on the way, and Cain now seems to be going the same way, but I can't see it happening to Newt, who I also see as the main beneficiary of lost Cain support and probably of lost Perry support as well.

The negatives on Newt that I see coming from both XO and BT are real enough, but they seem to operate only within the GOP hierarchy, rather than the rank and file.  When the rank and file watch the debates, they see Newt as the smartest guy in the room, and they don't give a shit or perhaps don't even know that he's considered an ass-hole in some circles.

As for winning Ohio and Pennsylvania, I agree that Mitt would have had the best chance, but it ain't gonna happen.  The Tea Party doesn't trust Mitt's conservative credentials and he's not even going to get a chance to bust open either of them.

BT

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Re: Gingrich takes lead nationally! (shocking to me)
« Reply #14 on: November 16, 2011, 02:28:22 AM »
I think rumors of Perry's demise are premature. He needs to finish in the top 3 in Iowa, same with NH and then no less than 2nd in SC. He has the money to do that. And he is a good retail politician.