Like i said. Straight forward.
Not really, but at least by reply #23 we got an answer that required an ergo extension, vs a simple yes or no that would have sufficed by reply #12
With that soap opera effort now out of the way, the point of this thread was again related to the polling. If I've been reading the reports about them accurately, there's alot of polls that have anywhere from a D+8 to a D+11, based on what I'm led to believe is the "pattern" of turnout. In this case, many of these polls are using the turnout #'s in 2008, which had a huge turnout of Dems, and those enamored with the prospect of electing our first black president. So apparently many of these polls are assuming something similar, thus the "D+X" component to those polled
Problem is, this isn't 2008. There isn't the same "enthusiasm" for our current president, as he now is no longer the blank slate everyone wanted of him. He now has a record, and an ongoing history of some pretty piss poor judgement calls. There's also a huge surge of enthusiasm for his being fired & to attempt to slow down this Greece-like debt train, he's put us on. Much of what I've been reading, as it relates to early ballots casted, echos exactly that...BIG reduction in ballots cast by Democrats compared to 2008, and a huge increase in GOP ballots compared to 2008. One report even indicated that the difference in Ohio alone was more than Obama's victory margin in Ohio in 2008. Not to mention its the Independents in these swing states that will decide, and they're going for Romney at a 2:1 clip, in polls across the country. Yes, yes, that doesn't mean every Republican ballot is a vote for Romney. It also means not every Democrat ballot is a vote for Obama. It's merely a comparison of early ballots cast compared to 2008's early ballots
Point being, that when you take all that into consideration, these D+8, D+11, etc factors, is really more like a D+2 or 3, if that. And if THAT were being applied, it wouldn't be 48-48 or 48-47. It'd be more 54-45 or 53-45.....Romney
So, indeed, if the accurate polling holds, Romney could easily win with 300+ electoral votes (which I would actually predict). BUT, with all this ever reported polling of Romney neck and neck with Obama, how razor thin the margin is, that if Romney were to win with the 300+ electoral votes, the left is going to go apesnot, absolutely convinced that "the election was stolen.....again" And the evidence?........nothing outside of the polling. How on earth could Romney win in such a massive way, if they were polling so close?
That's my prediction.....Romney wins with 301 - 321 electoral votes......and the Dems immediately cry "fix!!...stolen!!...an electoral lynching!!", based on nothing more than the polls.
Any bets on my prediction?