March 07 - Despite violence only 26% preferred life under Saddam
One in four (26%) Iraqi adults have had a family relative murdered in the last three years, while 23% of those living in Baghdad have had a family/relative kidnapped in the last three years.
These are the findings released today from the largest poll into Iraqi opinion ever to be published. Carried out by UK polling firm O.R.B., which has been tracking public opinion in Iraq since 2005, the poll shows that despite the horrendous personal security problems only 26% of the country preferred life under the previous regime of Saddam Hussein, with 49% preferring life under the current political regime of Noori al-Maliki. As one may expect, it is the Sunnis who are most likely to back the previous regime (51%) with the Shias (66%) preferring the current administration.
Carried out amongst a nationally representative sample of 5,019 Iraqi adults aged 18yrs+ and coming just days before the fourth anniversary of the invasion of Iraq, the poll reveals that despite the rising number of civilian deaths each month as a result of militia activity, only 27% would concede that their country is actually in a state of civil war. Opinion here is clearly divided, as 22% feel “we are close to a state of civil war but not yet in one†while 18% argue that the country is “still some way from civil warâ€.
Regionally, 43% of those in the Shia dominated South of the country claim “Iraq will never get as far as civil warâ€. This figure in the Sunni dominated north plummets to 5% where most (42%) feel the country is already in a state of civil war.
Regionally there are significant differences on attitudes towards the relationship between the security situation and the presence of troops. Nationally, one in two (53%) feels that the security situation in Iraq will get better in the immediate weeks following a withdrawal of Multi National Forces.
However, those in the South appear to be more ready to accept a gradual withdrawal than those in the North. 69% of the Shia dominated South feel the situation will get a great deal/little better, while only 10% feel it will get worse. In the Sunni north, opinion is evenly divided – 46% feel it will get better and 37% feel it will get worse.
What about talk of creating a federal Iraq? With the exception of the Kurdish population in the North of the country, a majority support Iraq remaining as a single country run by a central national government. On this point Sunnis (57%) and Shias (69%) agree that the country should continue as one nation.
Note:
The opinion poll was conducted by O.R.B. and the survey details are as follows:
•Results are based face-to-face interviews amongst a nationally representative sample of 5,019 adults aged 18+ throughout Iraq.
•The standard margin of error on the sample size is +1.4%
•The methodology uses multi-stage random probability sampling and covers every one of the eighteen governorates within Iraq.
•Interviews conducted 10th – 22nd February 2007.
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