From New York Sun Politics Blog | Original entry available at:
http://www.nysunpolitics.com/blog/2007/03/thompson-takes-bites-out-of.htmlThompson Takes Bites Out of Giuliani, Romney
The latest USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted Friday through Sunday, on the presidential race is out, and it's a humdinger. It's hard to say what the headline even is. Here are a few tries, though:
* Romney's support drops to within the margin of error of not existing (that's 3% support in a poll where the margin of error is 3%).
* Giuliani's support drops 13 percentage points since the last USA Today/Gallup poll, March 2-4 (that's gotta hurt).
* Fred Thompson (not running, by the way) is now the No. 3 in the GOP field, at 12%.
Ultimately, however, I'll go with the headline I've chosen above: "Thompson Takes Bites Out of Giuliani, Romney." While the usual caveats apply about the ridiculous earliness of all of these polls — and, now, the fact that voters know precisely zero about Fred Thompson past what they know of him from "Law & Order" — this is a clear data point on the question of just who is hurt by a Thompson candidacy.
And that is, as I predicted, Mitt Romney (who dropped from 8% to 3% when Thompson was added to the poll), and as I did not in any way predict, Rudy Giuliani, who, again, lost 13 percentage points.
So, why the hit to Mr. Romney? Well, his candidacy has been foundering anyway, and now Mr. Thompson could present an acceptable social-conservative alternative (as I wrote in this column). That all but negates the entire rationale of a Romney candidacy (i.e. "I'm the real conservative!" [-- a paraphrase])
Why the hit to Mr. Giuliani? Off the top of my head, I'd say conservative voters who primarily want a winner and someone who will be tough on national security might see Mr. Thompson as being as good as the former mayor, but without a lot of the baggage (social-issue positions and ex wives).
Now, some more caveats. There are other, state-by-state polls that tell a slightly different story. In New Hampshire, an ARG polls shows Mr. Giuliani dipping, possibly because of Mr. Thompson. But an ARG poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers shows Newt Gingrich as the biggest loser (with his poll numbers cut more than in half), and not a big change for Mr. Giuliani. In Ohio, a Quinnipiac poll also showed Mr. Gingrich as the biggest loser.
What does it all mean? Partly, that polls this early swing wildly based on name recognition. But also that — and this may end up being quite important as the race wears on — John McCain's numbers do not seem to be as susceptible to wild fluctuations as those of some of the other candidates. Conservatives, and Republicans generally, don't like him. But they basically know who he is, they know what they thought of him yesterday, and they know what they'll think of him tomorrow.
Posted by Ryan Sager | Mon, 26 Mar 2007 at 4:44 PM
From New York Sun Politics Blog | Original entry available at:
http://www.nysunpolitics.com/blog/2007/03/thompson-takes-bites-out-of.html
