We are now losing both troops and good will in an attempt to recover the three missing soldiers. Of course we are, and rightly so; but it is another tactic that will often be employed by the insurgents. The Israelis know all about that one -- and have never recovered their missing troopers either.
The goal for the insurgents is to capture some female US soldiers. It is only a question of time before they do so. What they hope for is to provoke the US into a mass response that can be labeled terrorism; it worked in Lebanon, where the IDF effectively ended the Cedar Revolution and alienated whatever good will and respect they had earned from the Lebanese defense forces. In Iraq the insurgents hope for the same results, thus uniting the Iraqi population in one overwhelming goal: get the Americans OUT. Depend upon it. They will go after a female American soldier, and at some point they will get one. If we are not right now planning on what to do when that happens, we should be. Rumsfeld never would have planned on any such thing, nor would Wolfowitz. I don't know if the present military commands are doing it.
The only winning tactic I can see is to abandon most of Iraq, seize the oil fields, pump a lot of oil, use the revenue to hire Middle Eastern auxiliaries, and dole out money to any willing to be our allies over there -- specifically the Kurds and those other parts and nationalities in Iraq that have cooperated. Use the auxiliaries, supported by the Legions when needed, to make massive incursions into any area that seems to be supported exportable terror; and very slowly rebuild Mesopotamia, province by province, into a federal structure. But allowing the Iraqi central government to dole out the oil revenue is insane; it requires a central government able to cooperate and that is impossible. Whatever faction of the Iraqi central government gains control will hog the money. Be sure of that.
We use the Iraqi oil revenue to pay for the occupation, and to finance massive intelligence operations. We use bribes freely to secure local cooperation. We hire auxiliaries responsible to an American proconsul. The proconsul does not have control of the Legions. He can only ask for their help. Never command them.
An American proconsul with the Iraqi oil revenue at his disposal would have some power to build a new federal Mesopotamia. He would also be subject to enormous temptations. And he would undoubtedly have corrupt minions. The point here is to keep the LEGIONS from being corrupted by all this. We can live with corrupt auxiliaries. We can live with corrupt regional puppet governments. We cannot live with corrupted Legions.
If anyone else has a winning strategy I would like to hear it.
And the final alternative is simply to get the hell out. I doubt we will either get out cleanly or follow the strategy I outlined. What we will do isn't clear.
