JS,
Bush won the two elections that counted. Once as an incumbent . His support amongst his supporters has dwindled largely because of the immigration bill, which was also looming in '04.
Bt,
I'm not being a "Bush-hater" or whatever catchy phrase Sirs has made up today. It is just that his popularity is extremely low.
You're right though, no one should be completely counted out. Especially Bush and Rove, who have had a great deal of success by pushing peropheral social issues to their advantage as well as using extremely negative campaigning tactics without involving Bush himself.
Clinton taught everyone (regardless of party affiliation) that you always counter every attack as soon as humanly possible, which in this day and age is very soon. Yet, the other areas of Clinton's campaigning style were more innate to his charisma than something that any campaign could learn and adapt to their own use.
Bush has taught that you can fight an exceptionally nasty campaign without involving the candidate himself (or herself). The other major lesson from Bush is that you can use peripheral social issues
if the perception is that your opposition candidate is on the fringe of that issue. Gay marriage was rather brilliant because Bush and Kerry basically agreed on the issue itself, but that was not the
perceived stance of either candidate in the public's eyes.
So no, I wouldn't count Bush out completely, but after the 2006 midterms and his current approval ratings, and the way even Republicans discuss the guy, I don't think he could win another term (which is a hypothetical situation any way). Notice that none of
his people are running for President. Unlike Reagan, he has no real legacy to leave behind - not even the House or Senate.