Some of you might be interested in the Tennessee Senate race as it has gained some national attention of late. The race has been mentioned as part of a "firewall" by the Republican Party and has received a great deal of money from outside the state by both the Democrat and Republican national campaigns.
The candidates are:
Republican Bob CorkerDemocrat Harold Ford Jr.Mr Corker is the former mayor of Chattanooga (2001 to 2005) and before that he owned a construction company and later a real estate company. He ran for the Senate in 1994, but lost the Republican primary to eventual Senator (and current Senate leader Bill Frist). Bob Corker also served (1995 to 1999) as Commissioner of Finance and Administration during Governor Don Dunquist's administration.
Mr Ford is the current Congressmen for the 9th congressional district of Tennessee. He has served at that position since 1996 and has won each election with nearly 80% of the vote in what is a heavily Democratic Memphis district. Ford is considered a moderate Democrat and is a member of the "Blue Dog Coalition." He has voted to ban partial birth abortions, criticized Democrats over the fillibuster of judge Samuel Alito, and also supported the Iraq War far more than many other Democrats. Yet, Ford supports universal health coverage and has opposed Republican items like CAFTA.
The CampaignBob Corker had the tougher primary campaign and ran against ex-Congressman Ed Bryant and ex-Congressman Van Hilleary. In that race Corker was the moderate, while Bryant and Hilleary split the conservative vote. It tended to be a rather nasty campaign, but Corker had the advantage for the majority of the time. Corker's personal financial advantage was evident and his ability to run ads far and above the other two candidates helped place him well-ahead. Bryant, most famous for his position as one of the House prosecutors in President Clinton's impeachment, surprised some at the end of the day when he garnered 34% of the total primary votes, but was still far shy of Corker's 48%. Some claimed that Corker could not have won if Hilleary did not run (Hilleary even expressed some regret at that, but I don't think it is true). There was a lot of mud slinging.
Harold Ford Jr, faced no such challenge and basically walked into his nomination for the Democrats.
Corker has had the edge on money, but has spent more as well. Corker fired his campaign manager around the first of this month. Neither candidate has had any trouble with getting big names into the state. President Bush has visited twice for Bob Corker, Laura Bush has visited once. Former President Clinton has visited once for Harold Ford Jr, and other known Democrats have visited as well.
AdvertisementsI don't think this state has ever seen such a negative statewide campaign with such a massive amount of advertising. The majority (from what I've seen) have come from the Corker/RNC campaign, but only slightly. Much of the state is weary of the ads, which are on all the time. I believe that Middle Tennessee is especially inundated with them as Harold Ford's support has solidified in West Tennessee and Bob Corker's support has solidified in East Tennessee (traditionally Democratic and Republican territory respectively).
Many of the ads are bizarre or just plain stupid. Frequently mocked are the Bob Corker and his mother ad (he also did a couple of these for the GOP primary race) and the Harold Ford in church ad. A running joke is that you cannot recognize Bob Corker without his mama nearby.
Bashing immigrants is a common theme in both candidate's ads (as well as the Gubernatorial race). Corker has faced some sharp criticism on this because of INS citations and fines his construction business received back in the 1990's.
AnalysisAny way you cut it Ford's campaign team has done the better job. That's not a biased assessment, just a fact (even the local Republican radio folks agreed). This can be seen in two sets of polls. First the general poll on voting intentions. Corker led this race after the nominations were confirmed by 12 or 13 points. In the span of roughly nine weeks, Ford's campaign is either in a dead heat or has a lead of upwards to 4 to 7 points. That's quite a turnaround. The Ford lead grows with registered "likely to vote" voters.
The other poll of significance is the favorable/unfavorable ratings. It may be the negative advertisements or the ability of the electorate to get to know Bob Corker, but he started with generally favorable ratings which have since been completely flipped. What Ford's team has done is define Corker.
The debates have shown some effort by Corker to define Ford. Primarily he has tried to tie Harold Ford Jr to the Ford family political machine of Memphis. Yet, again Ford has done a very good job of countering this (something he obviously foresaw before he ever ran for this seat). FOr those not familiar with Tennessee politics, the Fords are well known in Memphis politics and have had some fairly corrupt members. Though, in fairness, there is nothing that ties Harold Ford Jr to any such corruption other than he is related to them.
Right now, I'd say the state is leaning towards Ford, which would be a a Democratic pick-up. The caveat is that anything can (and often does) happen in politics. Ford has one ad that talks about Corker's time as Chattanooga's mayor where the city's garbagemen received no pay increases for the four years, while Corker (who is a millionaire) voted to give himself a couple of pay raises. I think that might hit home with a few voters. The majority of Corker's and the RNC ads are about border security and terrorism. I just don't see Corker, who uses his mama in other ads and is generally viewed as an effete wealthy country club-type, as gaining traction with that tactic. Moreover, Ford's moderate tone is capable of winning enough of those voters anyway.
