So, seriously.....any ideas on how to deal with North Korea?

[BT]

China may back coup against Kim
Michael Sheridan, Beijing
October 16, 2006
THE Chinese are openly debating "regime change" in Pyongyang after last week's nuclear test by their confrontational neighbour.
Diplomats in Beijing said at the weekend that China and all the major US allies believed North Korea's claim that it had detonated a nuclear device. US director of national intelligence John Negroponte circulated a report that radiation had been detected at a site not far from the Chinese border.

The US may have employed highly classified satellite technology to detect tiny leaks of gas or elements associated with nuclear detonation, according to a diplomatic source in the Chinese capital. This would explain Washington's reluctance to explain the findings in public.

The Washington Times disclosed that US spy satellites photographed North Koreans playing volleyball just a few hundred metres from a test site tunnel after the underground explosion.

The Chinese Government has been ultra-cautious in its reaction. However, since Monday, Foreign Ministry officials have started to make a point of distinguishing between the North Korean people and their Government in conversations with diplomats.

Ahead of yesterday's Security Council vote, some in Beijing argued against heavy sanctions on North Korea for fear that these would destroy what remains of a pro-Chinese "reformist" faction inside the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

"In today's DPRK Government, there are two factions, sinophile and royalist," one Chinese analyst wrote online. "The objective of the sinophiles is reform, Chinese-style, and then to bring down Kim Jong-il's royal family. That's why Kim is against reform. He's not stupid."

More than one Chinese academic agreed that China yearned for an uprising similar to the one that swept away the Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceausescu in 1989 and replaced him with communist reformers and generals. The Chinese made an intense political study of the Romanian revolution and even questioned president Ion Iliescu, who took over, about how it was done and what roles were played by the KGB and by Russia.

Mr Kim, for his part, ordered North Korean leaders to watch videos of the swift and chaotic trial and execution of Ceausescu and his wife, Elena, the vice-prime minister, as a salutary exercise.

The balance of risk between reform and chaos dominated arguments within China's ruling elite. The Chinese have also permitted an astonishing range of vituperative internet comment about an ally with which Beijing maintains a treaty of friendship and co-operation. Academic Wu Jianguo published an article in a Singapore newspaper - available online in China - bluntly saying: "I suggest China should make an end of Kim's Government."

"The Chinese have given up on Kim Jong-il," commented one diplomat. "The question is, what are they going to do about it?"

Hinting at the options, Chinese online military commentators have exposed plots and purges inside North Korea that were previously unknown or unconfirmed. They have described three attempted coups that ended in bloodshed. In 1996, the Sixth Field Army was planning to revolt but the scheme was betrayed by a new commander. One or two plotters got away but Kim Jong-il's personal guards arrested senior officers and the Sixth Field Army's political commissars.

On March 12, 1998, Kim suddenly announced a martial law "exercise" in Pyongyang and there was gunfire in the streets of the city. The Chinese later learned that two ministries were involved in a coup attempt, and that more than 20 ministerial-level officials were killed after it was crushed.

In October 1999, a company of the Third Field Army rebelled in dissatisfaction over grain distribution during the nation's prolonged famine, which may have killed a million people.

There are rumours that Kim's eldest son, Jong-nam, is estranged from his father and living in the Chinese capital, where he enjoys a reputation as a capricious imbiber of whisky. A younger son, Jong-chol, has emerged as heir apparent.

Meanwhile, some of the North Korean elite are seeking their boltholes in China.

Xin Cheng, an estate agent in the high-rise district of Wang Jing, which is popular with resident South Korean businessmen, said many high-ranking North Koreans were buying property there.

The Sunday Times

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20587473-2703,00.html

[Michael Tee]

<<Again, helps reinforce who we should be targeting in our deterrent rhetoric, considering how Lybia has turned over their WMD program, and iran currently is without, does it not?>>

yeah, that's right, sirs.  I think we were both agreed about half a dozen posts back that deterrence was probably the best bet the U.S. has against North Korea.

the subject under discussion, however, was Krauthammer's dipshit proposal for a deterrence policy that was aimed at deterring North Korea from transferring nuclear technology or know-how to unknown enemies of the US, who might use it to attack the U.S. while North Korea builds itself a plausible alibi defence ("We were all vacationing in Florida at the time!")  Krauthammer's brilliant idea was to give advance warning to the NK's that they would be held accountable (translation:  nuked!) if anyone nuked the US, whether or not NK had a hand in it.  Brilliantly, Krauthammer suggested that this policy could only work if the US had removed Iran's nuclear capability first, so that it would then be able to recognize NK as the "source" behind the technology of the rogue bomb.  

I felt constrained to point out Pakistan's rather active and complex history of nuke tech transfers, which you seemed to feel existed nowhere outside of my imagination.  So I kindly brought to your attention the numerous - - ubiquitous would be the better word - - easily available reports outlining Pakistan's activity in that area.  Demonstrating once again for no good reason but personal pique, your total lack of knowledge of the most basic facts and how it stands in such stark contrast to the arrogant, brash and dismissive manner in which you feel compelled to advertise your own appalling  ignorance.  Soak it up, learn something (if you can, which I so far haven't seen much evidence of) and figure it out:  Those of you who THINK you know everything are very annoying to those of us who DO.

[Michael Tee]

Even if they change the regime, they aren't going to leave the new regime bereft of their new nukes.  Which is another way of saying, if they ARE pissed off with Kim, it isn't due to the nukes.

Could be the boy is just too erratic for them.

[BT]

Why wouldn't the Chinese disarm them of their nukes?

[sirs]

the subject under discussion, however, was Krauthammer's dipshit proposal for a deterrence policy that was aimed at deterring North Korea from transferring nuclear technology or know-how to unknown enemies of the US, who might use it to attack the U.S. while North Korea builds itself a plausible alibi defence 

So, who are you proposing has a death wish aimed for North Korea?

[Michael Tee]

<<Why wouldn't the Chinese disarm them of their nukes?>>

Why would the Chinese want to solve an American problem?  They're gonna have their own American problem when they take back Taiwan.  They want the U.S. tied up, not unencumbered.

[Michael Tee]

<<So, who are you proposing has a death wish aimed for North Korea?>>

Nobody.  If anyone used NK know-how to nuke America, their death wish would be for the USA only.  North Korea might be collateral damage IF the US retaliated, which they'd only do if they could put a reliable trace on the source. 

The idiocy of Krauthammer's suggestion was that it called for North Korea to believe that the USA would retaliate on them for an attack they had no hand in, when they (the U.S.) wouldn't be able to trace the source of the know-how.  That was nuts because (a) not even the American people would want to nuke millions of other human beings without any real evidence of their wrong-doing, and (b) because it would practically guarantee that a North Korean second strike would be added to any other rogue state's first strike on American territory.

[BT]

A nuclear armed recalcitrant neighbor is more China's problem than it is ours. My guess is along with regime change they reduce them to proper serfdom by reducing their ability to cause business problems.
 

[sirs]

<<So, who are you proposing has a death wish aimed for North Korea?>>

Nobody.  If anyone used NK know-how to nuke America, their death wish would be for the USA only.  North Korea might be collateral damage IF the US retaliated, which they'd only do if they could put a reliable trace on the source.

Then what's your beef?  If the Krauthammer deterrence initiative is that NK will cease to exist, especially if such folks have ties to NK & were to try and launch a nuclear attack on us, obviously imparts a death wish on their part for the non-existance of NK, if we were indeed to impose a Kennedy-esque proclaimation.  As such it'll also give pause to NK for daring to even pull such a stunt to begin with, just as it did the Russians.  You can't have it both ways, I'm afraid

[The_Professor]

I suspect you will see Japan modifying tis constitution so as to take a more active role in the Far East as they distrust both NK and China and we are not over there in sufficient force to be a real presence. After all,they are in short missile range from NK.

I say, let's sit down with the NKans with lots of third-party witnesses around like the wimpo French, etc. Then, the NK officials can rant and rave and generally act irrational and we can then pack up shop and tell the world "Hey, at least we tried! See, I told you they are crazy!" Good PR for the U.S.

[BT]

I say, let's sit down with the NKans with lots of third-party witnesses around like the wimpo French, etc.

I believe we are already sitting down with them and the Chinese, Russians, Japanese and S. Koreans can bear witness to that.

[Michael Tee]

<<A nuclear armed recalcitrant neighbor is more China's problem than it is ours. >>

Yeah.  But it depends on how "recalcitrant" North Korea really is, and who it's recalcitrant to.  I'm betting if the Chinese really didn't want 'em to test nukes, they wouldn't test nukes.  The test of how pissed off the Chinese are with this guy would be what they do to punish his "defiance" of their "Don't test" admonitions.  So far, they haven't done a hell of a lot.

<<My guess is along with regime change they reduce them to proper serfdom by reducing their ability to cause business problems.>>

Yeah, they've seen how easy it is for the U.S. to reduce Iraq to its "proper serfdom," North Korea should be a piece of cake.  What kind of "business problems" is North Korea gonna cause them anyway?  The U.S.A. might stop buying their stuff?  Gee, that'd be too bad, they might have to sell some T-bills.

I try to focus on the cui bono side of the argument.  Given that North Korea would never attack China with its nukes, whose problem are they really?  Who would benefit most from North Korea disarming and who benefits most from North Korea NOT disarming?  Put that way, it's a no-brainer.

[Michael Tee]

<<If the Krauthammer deterrence initiative is that NK will cease to exist, especially if such folks have ties to NK & were to try and launch a nuclear attack on us, obviously imparts a death wish on their part for the non-existance of NK, if we were indeed to impose a Kennedy-esque proclaimation. >>

PAUSE and ask yourself, what is the likelihood that "such folks" would have a death wish for North Korea?  Because they hate the U.S.A. enough to nuke it, it follows they'd hate North Korea just as much?  Because North Korea gave them the means to nuke the U.S.A., that would be their reason to hate North Korea?  Can you even think of one country or group that hates both the USA and North Korea badly enough to want 'em BOTH nuked AND which would also be liked and trusted enough by North Korea that it (NK) would give them nuclear secrets and/or technology?  You are talking about things, people, countries, organizations that just don't exist and aren't likely to exist.

<<As such it'll also give pause to NK for daring to even pull such a stunt to begin with, just as it did the Russians. >>

sirs, I get that the North Koreans would be deterred from passing nuke know-how to a group that might want to use it on the U.S.A.  That is the BASIS of a deterrent policy - - attack us directly or through your agents or proxies and we will  hit back.  Nobody is disputing a deterrent policy.

Krauthammer's policy goes beyond the conventional deterrence of "Do this and we'll do that."  Krauthammer is for telling them "Even if you DON'T do this, we're still going to do that."  Can't you understand how crazy that is?  If the North Koreans have absolutely NOTHING to do with a rogue state nuclear hit on the USA, Krauthammer's policy would tell them, "You're gonna get hit anyway." At that point, they're dead as soon as the US absorbs the first strike.  Do nothing, and they're nuked.  Fire all their nuclear arsenal at the U.S. and they're nuked.  Don't you see what a no-brainer that would be for the North Koreans?  They had nothing to do with the strike on the U.S. but the U.S. is gonna nuke 'em anyway.  They'd have to be schmucks not to fire everything they have at the U.S. and as fast as they can, preferably BEFORE the first wave of US rockets hits them.

<<You can't have it both ways, I'm afraid>>

In the context of this discussion, I have no idea what that means.

[sirs]

PAUSE and ask yourself, what is the likelihood that "such folks" would have a death wish for North Korea?

Because of the stance Krauthammer is suggesting, in the mold of JFK, that NK will cease to exist with any nuke detonated in the U.S.  Obviously, "such folks" don't care about NK being turned into a parking lot, as they use NK's nuclear technology in some effort to attack America.  Again, makes it a valid deterrent that NK not allow such to happen in the 1st place.  Remember this is about preventing NK from selling it's Nukes.  That's the whole point of Krauhammer's piece, if you hadn't noticed

[BT]

The test of how pissed off the Chinese are with this guy would be what they do to punish his "defiance" of their "Don't test" admonitions.  So far, they haven't done a hell of a lot.

They voted for the sanctions the US put before the UN Security Council. They could have vetoed it.