Author Topic: New Iraq Poll Makes for Grim Reading  (Read 744 times)

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_JS

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New Iraq Poll Makes for Grim Reading
« on: September 18, 2007, 02:34:48 PM »
Also note the high percentage of Sunni Muslims who say attacks on coalition forces are acceptable. Interesting, no?

Iraq poll makes for grim reading
Nick Childs
BBC World Affairs Correspondent 


Coming at a crucial moment, a new BBC/ABC News opinion poll suggests ordinary Iraqis have a damning verdict on the US surge.

The poll, conducted in August, also indicates that Iraqi opinion is at its gloomiest since the BBC/ABC News polls began in February 2004.

According to this latest poll, in key areas - security and the conditions for political dialogue, reconstruction and economic development - between 67 and 70% of Iraqis, or more than two-thirds, say the surge has made things worse.

All this as the political battle is about to erupt again in Washington over the future of the US mission.

The Bush administration is insisting progress is being made and that the surge needs more time.

That is likely to be the thrust of the much-anticipated Congressional testimony by the US commander in Iraq, Gen David Petraeus, and the US Ambassador to the country, Ryan Crocker.

But that, it seems, is not how most Iraqis see it.

The Bush administration is making its case against a background of widespread scepticism in the United States and internationally.

Since the last BBC/ABC News poll in February, the number of Iraqis who think that US-led coalition forces should leave immediately has risen sharply, from 35 to 47%, although that does mean that a small majority - 53% - still says the forces should stay until security has improved.

But 85% of Iraqis say they have little or no confidence in US and UK forces.

These results will make grim reading for a country that is aspiring to be a normal, functioning state.

In terms of quality of life, 80% of Iraqis say the availability of jobs is bad or very bad, 93% say the same about electricity supplies, 75% for clean water, 92% for fuel.

And 77% of Iraqis say the ability to live where they want, without persecution, is bad or very bad.

If these figures are likely to be sobering for the Bush administration, they are not very encouraging for the Iraqi government either.

Sixty-one per cent of Iraqis say they have little or no confidence in the national government, and 66% disapprove of Nouri Maliki's handling of the job of prime minister.

There are some more encouraging results.

Sixty-two per cent of Iraqis still say Iraq should have a unified central government, and 98% say it would be a bad thing for the country to separate along sectarian lines.

And, given the images of violence and chaos emerging from Iraq, the fact that 40% of the people still say things are going well or quite well in their lives could be viewed quite positively. The figure has not changed since February.

This is the fourth BBC/ABC News poll since the US-led invasion. And the polling reveals two great divides.

The first is between the relative optimism recorded in November 2005, and the gloom reflected in the two polls conducted this year.

In between, there was the deadly bombing of the Shia mosque in Samarra, which unleashed a bitter and deadly sectarianism.

In 2005, 64% of people thought their lives would get better in the coming year, and 69% thought conditions in Iraq as a whole would improve.

In February, those figures had slumped to 35% and 40%, and they have dipped further in the latest poll, to 29% and 22%.

The other great divide is that revealed between the Sunni and Shia communities.

Eighty-eight per cent of Sunnis say things are going badly in their lives.

Fifty-four per cent of Shias think they are going well.

Also, strikingly, 93% of Sunnis say attacks on coalition forces are acceptable, compared with 50% of Shia (the overall total is 57%).

Overall, the Sunni community comes over as deeply depressed about its condition, not surprisingly given that it is the one whose degree of influence has been dramatically reduced by the changes since the US-led invasion, despite the efforts of the Americans and others to engage the Sunnis.

There is a sharp difference in each community's confidence in the national government - 4% of Sunnis have a degree of positive confidence in the national government, compared with 58% of Shias.

Only 34% of Sunnis have confidence in the Iraqi army, compared with 83% of Shias. The figures for the police are 37% and 83% respectively.

Only 2% of Sunnis approve of Nouri al-Maliki's performance, compared with 54% of Shias approve. But both communities think equally overwhelmingly (by 98%) that sectarian separation is a bad thing. Iraqis are also somewhat suspicious of their neighbours.

Seventy-nine per cent of them think that Iran is actively encouraging sectarian violence in their country, 66% think the same of Syria and 65% think likewise about Saudi Arabia.

The Bush administration will no doubt be deploying many statistics and examples to argue that there have been security improvements in the last six months, as well as some glimmers of political progress, that mean the surge should be given more time.

And administration supporters may argue that there is bound to be a lag between actual events on the ground and public perceptions of them.

But in the war of nerves that continues in Iraq, perceptions and public opinion are critical elements.

The surge was meant to provide a breathing space in which political progress could make headway.

This survey suggests that the public atmosphere in which any political reconciliation must take place remains hugely challenging.



Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/world/middle_east/6986993.stm

Published: 2007/09/10 11:12:01 GMT

? BBC MMVII
I smell something burning, hope it's just my brains.
They're only dropping peppermints and daisy-chains
   So stuff my nose with garlic
   Coat my eyes with butter
   Fill my ears with silver
   Stick my legs in plaster
   Tell me lies about Vietnam.

Michael Tee

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Re: New Iraq Poll Makes for Grim Reading
« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2007, 03:56:02 PM »
Ungrateful bastards don't they understand the U.S. is bringing democracy to them and it's worth all the 1.2 million dead Iraqis and all the dead Iraqis that are gonna die in the future before the U.S. pulls out?  It's DEMOCRACY, morons!  Stand up and sing!  Be happy you're losing relatives faster than Bush is losing credibility.  What would you rather have, a  bunch of boring, stupid relatives and family, or DEMOCRACEEE?

Wow what a bunch of deadbeats and ingrates.  Let's kill some more a them.

BT

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Re: New Iraq Poll Makes for Grim Reading
« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2007, 05:05:03 PM »
i question the timing of these polls.

Richpo64

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Re: New Iraq Poll Makes for Grim Reading
« Reply #3 on: September 18, 2007, 06:10:51 PM »
>>i question the timing of these polls.<<

As well you should. You should also question their relevance.

Michael Tee

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Re: New Iraq Poll Makes for Grim Reading
« Reply #4 on: September 18, 2007, 07:33:47 PM »
<<i question the timing of these polls.>>

When's a better time to conduct them, BT?  How about never?  Would never work for you?

Xavier_Onassis

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Re: New Iraq Poll Makes for Grim Reading
« Reply #5 on: September 18, 2007, 08:27:32 PM »
About questioning their revelance: how DARE they ask the Iraqis if they like having our brave soldiers defending their country against other Iraqis!

Why not  poll Israelis about our occupying Iraq, and we should wait a year to poll them.
"Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana."

BT

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Re: New Iraq Poll Makes for Grim Reading
« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2007, 09:18:01 PM »
Quote
When's a better time to conduct them, BT?  How about never?  Would never work for you?

How about at the beginning of the surge and after it has been going for some months.

This seems to be part of carefully orchestrated blowback for Patraeus vist. And the MSM has enough problems with credibility as it is.

Michael Tee

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Re: New Iraq Poll Makes for Grim Reading
« Reply #7 on: September 18, 2007, 10:10:08 PM »
<<This seems to be part of carefully orchestrated blowback for Patraeus vist. >>

You gotta watch that conspiracy-theory paranoia, BT.  It can run away with ya.  Soon you'll be talking black helicopters over your backyard at midnight.

<<And the MSM has enough problems with credibility as it is.>>

ROTFLMFAO.  We KNOW who's got the credibility problem, BT.

BT

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Re: New Iraq Poll Makes for Grim Reading
« Reply #8 on: September 18, 2007, 10:15:27 PM »
Ah Mikey . you were at a fork in the road. You could have countered my concerns with a logical explanation for the timing and an analysis of the the authors and publishers credentials  showing they did not have a history of bias and slanted reporting but you choose the other fork of being a schmuck and countering with nonsensical one liners.

Such a pity. You did yourself and the forum at large a disservice.


Michael Tee

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Re: New Iraq Poll Makes for Grim Reading
« Reply #9 on: September 18, 2007, 10:57:31 PM »
I was only trying to help, BT.  I think that paranoia should be treated without delay.  Besides, I figured that if you had anything to back up your ludicrous accusations of poll conspiracy, you would already have posted them.  I didn't feel like running down the pollsters' life stories just to counter an unsubstantiated accusation.  Sorry.  But anyway, don't hold back just because I'm a schmuck.  Why don't you tell us why you believe the poll was timed to embarrass your Fearless Leader and his new White Knight of the week?

BT

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Re: New Iraq Poll Makes for Grim Reading
« Reply #10 on: September 18, 2007, 11:06:00 PM »
Because the dems always crank out the noise machine when news doesn't go their  way. People have been trashing teh general  for weeks all leading up to the discounted Moveon full page ad in the NYT. Don't see why this poll story can't be considered part of the operation.


Michael Tee

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Re: New Iraq Poll Makes for Grim Reading
« Reply #11 on: September 18, 2007, 11:09:43 PM »
<<Don't see why this poll story can't be considered part of the operation. >>

Why not?  Anything's possible.  Since the whole operation is illegal and immoral, I'm for anything that turns it back and against anything that helps it along.  If the poll is a Move.On stunt, then good for Move.On!

BT

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Re: New Iraq Poll Makes for Grim Reading
« Reply #12 on: September 18, 2007, 11:18:46 PM »
Thank you for acknowledging that the timing of the poll could be suspect.