Attack Iran and you attack Russia

[Lanya]

Middle East
     Oct 26, 2007
   
   
THE ROVING EYE
Attack Iran and you attack Russia
By Pepe Escobar

The barely reported highlight of Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Tehran for the Caspian Sea summit last week was a key face-to-face meeting with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

A high-level diplomatic source in Tehran tells Asia Times Online that essentially Putin and the Supreme Leader have agreed on a plan to nullify the George W Bush administration's relentless drive towards launching a preemptive attack, perhaps a tactical nuclear



strike, against Iran. An American attack on Iran will be viewed by Moscow as an attack on Russia.

But then, as if this were not enough of a political bombshell, came the abrupt resignation of Ali Larijani as top Iranian nuclear negotiator. Early this week in Rome, Larijani told the IRNA news agency that "Iran's nuclear policies are stable and will not change with the replacement of the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council [SNSC]." Larijani will keep attending SNSC meetings, now as a representative of the Supreme Leader. He even took time to remind the West that in the Islamic Republic all key decisions regarding the civilian nuclear program are made by the Supreme Leader. Larijani actually went to Rome to meet with the European Union's Javier Solana alongside Iran's new negotiator, Saeed Jalili, a former member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), just like President Mahmud Ahmadinejad.

In itself, the Putin-Khamenei meeting was extraordinary, because the Supreme Leader rarely receives foreign statesmen for closed talks, even one as crucial as Putin. The Russian president, according to the diplomatic source, told the Supreme Leader he may hold the ultimate solution regarding the endlessly controversial Iranian nuclear dossier. According to IRNA, the Supreme Leader, after stressing that the Iranian civilian nuclear program will continue unabated, said. "We will ponder your words and proposal."

Larijani himself had told the Iranian media that Putin had a "special plan" and the Supreme Leader observed that the plan was "ponderable". The problem is that Ahmadinejad publicly denied the Russians had volunteered a new plan.

Iranian hawks close to Ahmadinejad are spinning that Putin's proposal involves Iran temporarily suspending uranium enrichment in exchange for no more United Nations sanctions. That's essentially what International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohammad ElBaradei has been working on all along. The key issue is what - in practical terms - will Iran get in return. Obviously it's not the EU's Solana who will have the answer. But as far as Russia is concerned, strategically nothing will appease it except a political/diplomatic solution for the Iranian nuclear dossier.

US Vice President Dick Cheney - who even Senator Hillary Clinton now refers to as Darth Vader - must be foaming at the mouth; but the fact is that after the Caspian summit, Iran and Russia are officially entangled in a strategic partnership. World War III, for them, is definitely not on the cards.

Let's read from the same script
The apparent internal controversy on how exactly Putin and the Supreme Leader are on the same wavelength belies a serious rift in the higher spheres of the Islamic Republic. The replacement of Larijani, a realist hawk, by Jalili, an unknown quantity with an even more hawkish background, might spell an Ahmadinejad victory. It's not that simple.

The powerful Ali Akbar Velayati, the diplomatic adviser to the Supreme Leader, said he didn't like the replacement one bit. Even worse: regarding the appalling record of the Ahmadinejad presidency when it comes to the economy, all-out criticism is now the norm. Another former nuclear negotiator, Hassan Rowhani, told the Etemad-e Melli newspaper, "The effects of the [UN] sanctions are visible. Our situation gets worse day by day."

Ahmadinejad for the past two months has been placing his former IRGC brothers-in-arms in key posts, like the presidency of the central bank and the Oil, Industry and Interior ministries. Internal repression is rife. On Sunday, hundreds of students protested at the Amir-Kabir University in Tehran, calling for "Death to the dictator".

The wily, ultimate pragmatist Hashemi Rafsanjani, now leader of the Council of Experts and in practice a much more powerful figure than Ahmadinejad, took no time to publicly reflect that "we can't bend people's thoughts with dictatorial regimes".

This week, the Supreme Leader himself intervened, saying, "I approve of this government, but this does not mean that I approve of everything they do." Under the currently explosive circumstances, this also amounts to a political bombshell.

As if anyone needed to be reminded, the buck - or rial - stops with the Supreme Leader, whose last wish on earth is to furnish a pretext for the Bush administration to launch World War III. If Ahmadinejad now deviates from a carefully crafted strategic script, the Supreme Leader may simply get rid of him.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/IJ26Ak06.html

[BT]

http://rickwrites.blogspot.com/2007/03/iran-attack-in-april-richard-reports.html

[Plane]

How does this make WWIII more likely ?

Or is it less?


Hey all we need to do is trust Putin and Achmednajaad.

They hav grand plans, and we know they will be good .

[Michael Tee]

<<They hav grand plans, and we know they will be good .>>

What's so good about them?  All we know is that they can't possibly be worse than Bush's and Cheney's.

[_JS]

Hey all we need to do is trust Putin

Well, Bush "looked into his soul" and said he was a great guy.

[Michael Tee]

Didn't Woody Allen do that once with a fellow student during a metaphysics exam?

[_JS]

Didn't Woody Allen do that once with a fellow student during a metaphysics exam?

I think he did, but his motives weren't as pure.

[Lanya]

Hey all we need to do is trust Putin

Well, Bush "looked into his soul" and said he was a great guy.

I shiver every time I read that.  I have this horrible feeling he was looking into the Abyss, and it looked back at him.  And he felt right at home.

[Cynthia]

<<They hav grand plans, and we know they will be good .>>

What's so good about them?  All we know is that they can't possibly be worse than Bush's and Cheney's.

Oh, yes, they can!

[BT]

Iranian hawks close to Ahmadinejad are spinning that Putin's proposal involves Iran temporarily suspending uranium enrichment in exchange for no more United Nations sanctions. That's essentially what International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohammad ElBaradei has been working on all along. The key issue is what - in practical terms - will Iran get in return. Obviously it's not the EU's Solana who will have the answer. But as far as Russia is concerned, strategically nothing will appease it except a political/diplomatic solution for the Iranian nuclear dossier.

So Putin urges Iran to halt nuclear enrichment, which is what the US and the Euros have been urging for years. He also ups the anti against a preemptive strike by declaring an attack on Irn is an attack on Russia.

However there is no need for a premptive strike if enriching uranium is halted.

So Putin essentially has done the bidding of the Euros and the US by delivering this special plan.


So what is wrong with that?

[Michael Tee]

<<So Putin essentially has done the bidding of the Euros and the US by delivering this special plan.


<<So what is wrong with that?>>

First of all, the Europeans don't give a shit what kind of weapons Iran develops because they know the weapons won't be pointed at them.  It's the bidding of the US, not "the Euros and the US."

Secondly, there's no way of knowing WHAT Putin and Ahmedinejad and/or Khamenei say to each other in private, I've seen it spun both ways here in this forum.

Third, even if Putin DID do what the US wanted him to do, the question is what did he get out of it?   The benefit would have to be substantial.  Since I'm not sure why the US wanted to put a missile shield in Eastern Europe, I can't say whether the US could compromise on that plan as the price of securing Russian compliance.  So there's an unknown price tag on Russian cooperation if in fact that's what you do have.

Personally, I don't think there's anything the US can offer Russia at this point to make it sacrifice an important potential client like Iran.  Iran has more potential for Russia than anything the US can offer it.  American power encircles Russia, weakens it.  Therefore anything that weakens America is good for Russia.  Iran is definitely weakening America.  Why would Russia want to undermine Iran or even encourage it to accommodate America?

[Plane]

How?

How does American power weaken Russia?

[Michael Tee]

When they surround Russia with bases, they make it militarily vulnerable and more likely to do what the US tells it to do.  If they can aim missiles at Russia but Russia can't aim missiles at them, it's like being surrounded.  They're vulnerable.  A powerful America is the world's bully - - it exercises its will by force of arms, and by force of arms takes what it needs from the weak.  Russia has a lot of resourced the US would like to have, or at least to have access to on preferential terms, much as England accessed the natural wealth of the British Empire.

[Cynthia]

When they surround Russia with bases, they make it militarily vulnerable and more likely to do what the US tells it to do.  If they can aim missiles at Russia but Russia can't aim missiles at them, it's like being surrounded.  They're vulnerable.  A powerful America is the world's bully - - it exercises its will by force of arms, and by force of arms takes what it needs from the weak.  Russia has a lot of resourced the US would like to have, or at least to have access to on preferential terms, much as England accessed the natural wealth of the British Empire.

Again, why do you think that the US IS THE "BULLY"?
Would you really like to see Iran as the "Bully"?
Your contempt for the west is frightening. Frightening for your own and those you support at home.
I often wonder why anyone would support a nation that could give a rat's ass  what you have to say.......your "opinon" to them  is worth spit.
Sorry, MT, but you are naive. Your hate for America is so transparent. I am fairly new here, but I see that you have been caught by the Iranian Hero bug. You're going to have to listen and read between the lines next time you have lunch with your old friend.
But, as I read the liberals around here, I see such a similar thread of ignorance. Think through what you have "wished for".

Think it through. You want the Middle East to be left alone? You want families in teh nation of Iraq and Iran to maintain their health and well being?
Oh, I am so sure you want that. At your own expense, MT.

Sometimes I wonder about the leftist. They have to be kept in check in order for the rest of us to survive.

[BT]

First of all, the Europeans don't give a shit what kind of weapons Iran develops because they know the weapons won't be pointed at them.  It's the bidding of the US, not "the Euros and the US."

Sure they do. The Germans, French and Brits have spent years negotiating with the Iranians about this very problem. In fact the lack of direct US involvement in the talks was a centerpiece of the 2004 US elections.

Secondly Russia has the contracts to work with the Iranians concerning the building of nuclear power plants as well as supplying them with enriched uranium to fuel them. They obviously are arguig the maintain the status quo as well as protect lucrative contracts.

Putin simply went to the power behind the throne and said , keep your program peaceful and we have your back. Which is no different than what the Euros and the US have been asking all along. The Ayatollah would be wise to accept the proposal.