Author Topic: A Likely Compromise in Skilled Hands?  (Read 1663 times)

0 Members and 6 Guests are viewing this topic.

gipper

  • Guest
A Likely Compromise in Skilled Hands?
« on: October 27, 2007, 03:11:40 PM »
As the Iranian situation rapidly approaches the boiling point of a new Cuban Missile Crisis, the question naturally arises whether a diplomatic (read: non-military) solution can be reached. To me, the outlines of a resolution seem obvious: cede the Polish-Czech nuclear-defense-of-Europe issue to the Russians, with fanfare, but employ their aid in deterring the Iranians from nuclear WEAPONS. Either that avenue must be pursued effectively or we should brace ourselves for war or a renewed Cold War.

Michael Tee

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12605
    • View Profile
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: A Likely Compromise in Skilled Hands?
« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2007, 06:34:36 PM »
Just thinking out loud on this.  The Russians have a big interest in keeping Iran within their sphere of influence.  They have little or no interest in "defending" Europe.  So you're proposing that they be induced to lessen their influence in Iran by "allowing" them to "defend" Europe, thereby eliminating the threat of American missiles on their borders.

Isn't that like asking them to capitulate to American blackmail?  "We'll undertake not to put missiles in Poland and (is it Slovakia? or the Czech Republic?) but you have to piss off the Iranians for us."

Why not answer this way:  "We'll do what suits our best interests in Iran, but if you persist in installing missiles on our borders, we'll (a) put the screws to your allies Ukraine and others by restricting their energy supply and/or (b) target Warsaw and (Prague?  Bratislava?) with nukes just in case.  We might just have to begin a new arms race to overcome your new missile defences."

I start from the proposition that the new missile shield is disguised aggression against Russia, whereas Russia's courting of Iran is just basic defensive manoeuvering aimed at preventing aggressive moves by Britain and the U.S.A. , for which there are historic precedents.    Russia is not the aggressor here.  Any "compromise" they may be moved to make would be a victory for American aggression, veiled though it may be.  Putin doesn't look like the kind of guy who is easily intimidated or pushed around.  I don't think he'll fall for it.

Xavier_Onassis

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 27916
    • View Profile
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: A Likely Compromise in Skilled Hands?
« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2007, 06:44:25 PM »
It isn't clear to me that anyone in Europe feels even slightly threatened by Iran's nonexistent nuclear weapons and missiles. I think that Europe can probably defend itself against a militarily puny country like Iran with no difficulty and no need for US intervention.

It is a matter of humiliation for the Russians to see the US stick missiles in ex-Soviet satellites like Poland and Czechoslovakia. And it seems that this is exactly what Juniorbush/Cheney intend by doing this.
"Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana."

gipper

  • Guest
Re: A Likely Compromise in Skilled Hands?
« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2007, 07:02:05 PM »
Putin has made a major issue of the proposed nuclear shield in Poland and the Czech Republic, which would be designed to intercept Iranian missiles. With his strategic alliance with the Iranians now coming to the fore, Putin can score a big victory with the US backing down on the missile shield in return for Putin's genuine support in limiting Iranian nuclear development to power only. Whether there's enough "bait" here to interest Putin depends entirely on what he perceives his interests as being. I personally don't see them as being in a renewed arms race in a new Cold War rather than once again becoming a major player in world politics.

BT

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 16143
    • View Profile
    • DebateGate
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: A Likely Compromise in Skilled Hands?
« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2007, 11:27:04 PM »
what is the win in this proposed win-win scenario for the US?

Michael Tee

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12605
    • View Profile
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: A Likely Compromise in Skilled Hands?
« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2007, 01:05:10 AM »
<<Whether there's enough "bait" here to interest Putin depends entirely on what he perceives his interests as being. >>

His perception of Russia's interests would depend on what alternatives he has of countering the US missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic, which is a serious threat to Russian security.  Both Poland and the Czech Republic can be viewed as hostile nations since both Poland and the Czech Legion have launched invasions of Russia in the 20th century.  If his only practical way of dealing with the threat is to carry America's water for it in Iran, then that is what he will have to do.  But I see other alternatives that don't involve a humiliating climb-down for Russia.

Plane

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 26993
    • View Profile
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: A Likely Compromise in Skilled Hands?
« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2007, 01:21:35 AM »
There may be a diffrence between Russias best interest and Putins best interest.


Tho last I heard Putin has a lot of electorate support.


It would not be unusual for a whole country to desre and act against their own best interest.


Really what keeps Russia from joining NATO other than nationalism?

Michael Tee

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12605
    • View Profile
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: A Likely Compromise in Skilled Hands?
« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2007, 01:29:22 AM »
<<It would not be unusual for a whole country to desre and act against their own best interest.>>

THAT'S for God-damn sure.  Look how many Americans supported the invasion of Iraq.


<<Really what keeps Russia from joining NATO other than nationalism?>>

I dunno.  Remind me again, what was the original purpose of NATO, and what is it now?

Plane

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 26993
    • View Profile
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: A Likely Compromise in Skilled Hands?
« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2007, 01:44:06 AM »
<<It would not be unusual for a whole country to desre and act against their own best interest.>>

THAT'S for God-damn sure.  Look how many Americans supported the invasion of Iraq.


<<Really what keeps Russia from joining NATO other than nationalism?>>

I dunno.  Remind me again, what was the original purpose of NATO, and what is it now?

Mutual defense .
Each member is pledged to come to the aid of other members .

Since Russia is not fomenting revolution anymore and the Sovet Union is no longer an empire , why shouldn't Russia join just like Poland did?

Michael Tee

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12605
    • View Profile
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: A Likely Compromise in Skilled Hands?
« Reply #9 on: October 28, 2007, 02:19:39 AM »
<<Since Russia is not fomenting revolution anymore and the Sovet Union is no longer an empire , why shouldn't Russia join just like Poland did?>>

Why would you say that the Soviet Union is no longer an empire?  What do you think Chechnya is all about?  You really think Russia has no imperial ambitions regarding the former Soviet republics?

Xavier_Onassis

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 27916
    • View Profile
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: A Likely Compromise in Skilled Hands?
« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2007, 04:20:56 AM »
Really what keeps Russia from joining NATO other than nationalism?

==============================================
That's like saying "what keeps the boy scouts from joining the girl scouts, except femininity?"

NATO is a defense organization founded to oppose the USSR. Surely you are aware of this.

A better question could be "what kept Nato from disbanding in 1991, when all its enemies had vanished?"

Putin obviously wants to keep Russia as large and powerful as he can, but the structure of the Russian Federation is flawed: many nationalities (some unwilling, held together by a Russian majority.

The US would not allow Russia to join NATO in any case. Allowing Poland and the Czechs to join was done to push the Russians further back. Something like my tomcat pissing on the trees in your yard.

« Last Edit: October 28, 2007, 04:26:52 AM by Xavier_Onassis »
"Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana."

Plane

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 26993
    • View Profile
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: A Likely Compromise in Skilled Hands?
« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2007, 07:58:06 AM »
I don't beleive that the NATO charter mentions the USSR.

We are obliged to protect members mutually when they are attacked , who should not join that?

Xavier_Onassis

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 27916
    • View Profile
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: A Likely Compromise in Skilled Hands?
« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2007, 09:11:51 AM »
I don't beleive that the NATO charter mentions the USSR.

We are obliged to protect members mutually when they are attacked , who should not join that?
==============================================================
Who indeed. Anyone who does not think it is any of their business to defend another.

Besides, that isn't what NATO actually does.

When the Turks  attacked the Greeks on Cyprus, did the US come to their defense?


The Russians won't join NATO and they are not welcome to join it, either.

Can you think of any reasons why the US would have joined the Warsaw Pact?
"Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana."

Plane

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 26993
    • View Profile
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: A Likely Compromise in Skilled Hands?
« Reply #13 on: October 28, 2007, 09:37:50 AM »
I don't beleive that the NATO charter mentions the USSR.

We are obliged to protect members mutually when they are attacked , who should not join that?
==============================================================
Who indeed. Anyone who does not think it is any of their business to defend another.

I guess that describes Russia pretty well , they are not interested in world peace untill they have gotten theirs.




Quote

Can you think of any reasons why the US would have joined the Warsaw Pact?

To give Stalin his hearts desire, it would have ended the cold war early and ushered in a peacefull world of hushed up famines.
Quote
The Russians won't join NATO and they are not welcome to join it, either.

Why not? Didn't the Germans join Nato and the Warsaw pact both ?  Right after looseing a war too.

Quote
"When the Turks  attacked the Greeks on Cyprus, did the US come to their defense?"

Both members , this was a tough problem and still is, Cyprus is not a settled question at all. It might be convienient if one side or the other would drop out of NATO so that Nato could throw the other one off Cyprus , but which one would you tell to go?


Amianthus

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7574
  • Bring on the flames...
    • View Profile
    • Mario's Home Page
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: A Likely Compromise in Skilled Hands?
« Reply #14 on: October 28, 2007, 10:47:02 AM »
The Russians won't join NATO and they are not welcome to join it, either.

The Russians are a NATO Partner country.

http://www.nato.int/issues/faq/index.html#A8
Do not anticipate trouble, or worry about what may never happen. Keep in the sunlight. (Benjamin Franklin)