If Iran starts an energy crisis....

[Lanya]

lWhat happens?  Results of computer modeling and war gaming:

http://www.heritage.org/Research/EnergyandEnvironment/cda07-03.cfm

[Michael Tee]

I admit I only skimmed through this one, but the weaknesses are obvious.  So many assumptions are made without any real assessment of their likelihood.  For example, Iran either shuts down production or boycotts the U.S. (I forget which and it doesn't really matter) and in support of Iran, Venezuela cuts off the U.S.A.  Huh??  Who knows (a) WHAT Venezuela would do and (b) what the U.S. response would be if they did it?  Venezuela's taking in serious money in return for its oil - - it's far from a given how they'd react to the U.S. nuking Iran.  I would have just said Iran could majorly fuck up the U.S. if it wanted to, and leave it at that.

Meantime, did you see Ahmadinejad, with Chavez' support, asking OPEC to drop the U.S. dollar as the universal denominator of oil sales in favour of more stable currency?  Apparently gathering some muted support.  The Saudis wanted to keep the whole subject off the table, but there was enough pressure in favour that a study resolution had to be passed.  This is what Saddam wanted to do, and one credible explanation for the invasion of Iraq and his subsequent demise is that it was necessary in defence of the U.S. dollar.  This was really what ended the war in Vietnam (the currency could no longer support it) and it looks like this might be the start of the same inevitable process once again.  All the Resistance has to do is hang in there, and eventually the business and financial community will lay down the law to the fascists and militarists that the game is over.

[Lanya]

The "bourse" right?
<<the universal denominator of oil sales in favour of more stable currency>>>

I remember reading about this in the run-up to the Iraq war, I think.  Saddam wanted to change it to the euro, if I remember correctly. 

[Plane]

 

"All the Resistance has to do is hang in there, and eventually the business and financial community will lay down the law to the fascists and militarists that the game is over."

So who wanted the war in the first place?

[Xavier_Onassis]

It is safe to say that Iran does not want any war. Iran wants to have some influence in Iraq. As the largest Shiite state, Iran will have influence in Iraq: this is inevitable. Iraq is the second largest Shiite state. But this will happen without war or arms, just as the US will always have influence over Canada and Mexico.

It is the Juniorbushies that are rattling the sabers. I see no reason why Iran would start any energy crisis. A war would prevent them from selling oil at all-time record prices. If oil were to hit $150 per barrel, then many other sources could become practicable, such as Canadian oil shale, coal liquification, wind, tidal, and geothermal power. Once in place, they would decrease the demand and the prices.

I don;t think the Iranians are so stupid as to not know this.

[Michael Tee]

<<So who wanted the war in the first place?>>

I think in the beginning the war had broad support from most of the sectors of the conservative movement:  racists, fascists, militarists, capitalists, industrialists and the bourgeoisie.  And their MSM cheerleaders.  Pretty much like the invasion of Viet Nam.  Most of them figured that the superiority (racial or otherwise) of Amerikkka would lead to an easy victory.  I'll never forget the year-end TIME magazine of 1965 describing the "lean" Amerikkkan troops spilling onto the landing beaches "spoiling for a fight."  They were writing it up as if a shipload of tigers had been let into a cow pasture.  It was inconceivable to the editors of TIME magazine that a bunch of delicate, thin-boned brown little men and women would kick the ass of the "mightiest nation on the face of the earth."  I think pretty much the same racist presumptions would have clouded the visions of the warmongers this time around as well, or maybe it was just an overly optimistic view of the benefits of advanced weaponry and an underestimation of the courage and determination of the "ragheads" and "camel fuckers" who they were going to roll over.

Regardless of the more or less universal support the war enjoyed in conservative circles at the beginning, the cooler heads among them (business and finance types) are at least able to read the writing on the wall and reconsider.  Exactly as occurred at the end of the Vietnam War.  If left unchecked, the financial drain can lead to disaster.  Somebody always seems to head off the disaster before the shit really hits the fan, and there's no doubt in my mind that's what'll happen in Iraq too.  Of course, they'll have to declare victory.  There's no way we're going to be treated to another "helicopters on the Embassy roof" scene.  That was a once-in-a-lifetime delight equivalent to the fall of Berlin in terms of public humiliation of the bad guys.  Too bad, but this time around the cognoscenti will have to find their own little symbolic events to savour, there won't be anything that obvious any more.  A hint of what's to come was Ahmadinejad and Chavez urging OPEC to drop the dollar for a more stable currency.  That was hilarious, but kind of a bittersweet moment, since our economy is tied up with yours.

[Plane]

"That was hilarious, but kind of a bittersweet moment, since our economy is tied up with yours."

Go ahead and be delighted , our economys will benefit together .

I don't know why you were so delighted at the sight of the people of Vietnam attempting to flee their doom , with millions unsuccessfull.

[The_Professor]

In a morbid way, perhaps such an economic war, or even a more devastating one if the dollar were to collapse, might not be necessarily all negative. It would "make us" come to some realities such as irresponsible financial actions (not only during the BushAdministration) and our lack of effectively dealing with our "energy crisis". Sure, it would be painful, but perhaps positive in the longer term. As Hanoi Jane once said: "No pain, no gain!" 

What do YOU think?

[Michael Tee]

<<I don't know why you were so delighted at the sight of the people of Vietnam attempting to flee their doom , with millions unsuccessfull.>>

Everyone likes to see the bully getting his ass kicked by the little guy he thought he could push around.  In this case, I lived through the entire miserable story, but I always remembered that first TIME magazine story about the army of "lean, mean Yanks" spilling onto the landing beaches, "spoiling for a fight," and a lot of other stuff - - the children they napalmed, the old people they killed, the torture and murder of prisoners, the lies, always the lies, the empty boasts and in the end this total, complete and utter humiliation.  It was beautiful.  It was as if for that one brief moment in history, there really WAS a God.

<<the people of Vietnam attempting to flee their doom>>

WOW!!!  Talk about spin, you are the MASTER.  Everyone knows what side "the people of Vietnam" were on.  This wasn't exactly a mystery.  What you saw "attempting to flee their doom" was the scum of the land, the traitors, the collaborators, the fascists, the supporters of the Americans and their corrupt puppets.  And, for the most part, there was no escape.  They had to stay and face the justice of the people.