Author Topic: Iowa results:  (Read 4951 times)

0 Members and 4 Guests are viewing this topic.

Cynthia

  • Guest
Iowa results:
« on: January 03, 2008, 10:46:17 PM »
Obama and Huckabee......headliners

Michael Tee

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12605
    • View Profile
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Iowa results:
« Reply #1 on: January 03, 2008, 11:53:02 PM »
interesting that no one wants to comment on the results.  why?

speaking for myself, I'm disappointed.  The only good news was that Hillary came in 3rd.  She's an unprincipled phony whose only constant is the desire to be President.  But why Obama?  Why not Kucinich?  Obama didn't vote for the war, and that's the only good thing about him.  As for whatever he currently represents, IMHO he is the fresh new face of same ol' same ol'.  As Hillary is the tired old face of same ol' same ol'.  Hard to be elated about an "opposition" politician who won't even consider the impeachment of "President" Bush. 

Huckabee wins for the bad guys.  The only bright spot there is Ron Paul's 10% - -high enough to show that the message is getting through, but low enough to guarantee that he doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell.  Huckabee is so bad that it's not even depressing that he won, it's actually comical.

The only truly depressing thought to come out of tonight's results is that maybe - - just maybe  - - Hillary can turn this thing around and run up a solid string of victories based on lessons learned.  But then there's a silver lining to that cloud too - - better a President Clinton than a President Huckabee any time.

Religious Dick

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1153
  • Drunk, drunk, drunk in the gardens and the graves
    • View Profile
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Iowa results:
« Reply #2 on: January 04, 2008, 12:00:03 AM »
Well, consider that this is a state that Huckabee won over Romney by over 9 percentage points.

If this is representative of the rest of the country, we're beyond fucked anyway.
I speak of civil, social man under law, and no other.
-Sir Edmund Burke

Michael Tee

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12605
    • View Profile
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Iowa results:
« Reply #3 on: January 04, 2008, 12:06:09 AM »
Are the 9 points a Huckabee vote or an anti-Romney vote?  I think it's too early in the campaign to write in the Huckster as the winner, but it's a dismal prospect to consider in any event.  The commentary I've seen attributes the Huckster's win to a strong conservative Christian vote in Iowa which won't exist in New Hampshire.

yellow_crane

  • Guest
Re: Iowa results:
« Reply #4 on: January 04, 2008, 12:33:59 AM »
Are the 9 points a Huckabee vote or an anti-Romney vote?  I think it's too early in the campaign to write in the Huckster as the winner, but it's a dismal prospect to consider in any event.  The commentary I've seen attributes the Huckster's win to a strong conservative Christian vote in Iowa which won't exist in New Hampshire.


Less than a week ago, Huckabee and Romney were virtually tied. 

During the week, Romney spent like a lottery winner, putting all his cash into negative ads.

Huckabee blithely walked out and showed one which he designated cancelled with a wink.

The negative ads backfired, earning the biggest point spread in all the races.

Romney is now wounded in the most critical area of all--the Christian area, because Huckabee won the God contest over Romney, tonight at least.

Those two wounds--the loss of face by spending huge funds and negative ads plus rearranging the Christian count--might well change Romney's expectations some in N. H.

One other big thing:  Hillary and Romney shall a common denominator--they both represent establishment, and tonight both lost to representers of change.




yellow_crane

  • Guest
Re: Iowa results:
« Reply #5 on: January 04, 2008, 12:39:03 AM »
interesting that no one wants to comment on the results.  why?

speaking for myself, I'm disappointed.  The only good news was that Hillary came in 3rd.  She's an unprincipled phony whose only constant is the desire to be President.  But why Obama?  Why not Kucinich?  Obama didn't vote for the war, and that's the only good thing about him.  As for whatever he currently represents, IMHO he is the fresh new face of same ol' same ol'.  As Hillary is the tired old face of same ol' same ol'.  Hard to be elated about an "opposition" politician who won't even consider the impeachment of "President" Bush. 

Huckabee wins for the bad guys.  The only bright spot there is Ron Paul's 10% - -high enough to show that the message is getting through, but low enough to guarantee that he doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell.  Huckabee is so bad that it's not even depressing that he won, it's actually comical.

The only truly depressing thought to come out of tonight's results is that maybe - - just maybe  - - Hillary can turn this thing around and run up a solid string of victories based on lessons learned.  But then there's a silver lining to that cloud too - - better a President Clinton than a President Huckabee any time.



One big worry for the Hillary camp is that, in Iowa tonight, Obama had 35% of the women's vote, while Hillary won only 30%.   

This lets all the air out of the big 'women vote' balloon.

Hillary was slapped hard tonight, coming in third.

Religious Dick

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1153
  • Drunk, drunk, drunk in the gardens and the graves
    • View Profile
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Iowa results:
« Reply #6 on: January 04, 2008, 01:01:04 AM »
The Independents

03 Jan 2008 10:18 pm

They went for Obama and ... Ron Paul respectively. Among independents, Clinton came a poor third: 17 percent to Obama's 41. And McCain lost out to Paul: 23 percent to 29. The men with the most support among independents - the people you need to win a general election - are the most despised by the Republican base. In they end, the Republicans poisoned themselves. Maybe they'll begin to recognize how far they've fallen.

Permalink :: Trackback (0) :: Sphere It!

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/01/the-independent.html
I speak of civil, social man under law, and no other.
-Sir Edmund Burke

hnumpah

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2483
  • You have another think coming. Use it.
    • View Profile
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Iowa results:
« Reply #7 on: January 04, 2008, 01:11:11 AM »
"I love WikiLeaks." - Donald Trump, October 2016

BT

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 16141
    • View Profile
    • DebateGate
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Iowa results:
« Reply #8 on: January 04, 2008, 02:25:01 AM »
Liveblogging the Iowa Caucuses

Precinct Party at my house -- Comments open, BYOB

5:15 PM: Looks like a real barnburner! Tammy set up the living room for the GOP and put card tables in the basement for the Democrats. Be right back, I gotta go to Hy Vee for sandwich platter and Old Milwaukee.

5:40 PM: Goddamn, the lines at Hy Vee were a zoo. Chris Matthews was there with his stupid MSNBC entourage and they cut in front of me at the 15 items or less line with a cart full of bottled water and takeout salads which he forgot to write down the weight. Then he starts asking the cashier if the salad bar is organic, and then he didn't have a Fresh Values card so the cashier had to call for a manager. I got so pissed off I finally let him use mine. While he was paying I hocked a loogie into his salad.

Later while I was loading the beer and sandwiches into my Camaro, I saw Matthew's MSNBC news van get t-boned by Zogby's Pollmobile. Karma's a bitch, Crissy. LOL!

6:10 PM: Finally back at the house. There was a caucus traffic jam on Highway 6 and while I was waiting I saw that the Casey's Store had a special on PBR so I stopped in and snagged a couple of 30s. Fridge is full but I they'll stay cold on the patio deck. On the way out I almost ran over what I thought was a small raccoon, but it turned out to just be Kucinich.

6:18 PM: Tammy is giving me the total stinkeye because the caucus people are showing up late and she want all of them out of the house before Grey's Anatomy. Like it's my fault eVite's default time zone is Pacific. A couple of UAW union guys from Waterloo show up and give me shit about my Yamaha. Hey, if Harley made a dirtbike maybe I'd buy it. I give them some Old Milwaukee which shuts them up. Some Huckabee supporters arrive with a hot dish and an abortion poster.

6:30 PM: The house is starting to fill up and the entry landing is filling up with filthy melting slush from the pile of shoes. Some of these idiots (especially the Mike Gravel people) don't even take off their shoes and tromp crap all over the new carpet we just got from Menards. Joe Biden drops by, supposedly for some "last minute campaigning," but I swear I saw him rifling through the coat pile.

6:42 PM: The Romney and Huckabee people are bitching about the lack of decaf soft drinks, and the Democrats are bitching about the lack of vegan hot dishes. The McCain people want their own room, so I send them to the garage. Holy Christ, I am glad this is only once every four years. I go out to the patio to light up a doob, and get startled by a couple of creepy pie-eyed Ron Paul zombies. "Drug... laws... are... unconstitutional," they moan. *shudder*

6:58 PM: Finally, they're getting started. When I came in from the deck some Romney dude was giving a speech on Massachusetts, and the Olympics, and his awesome hair, and blah, blah, blah. Just then I heard some yelling and clapping from outside the window, and it turned out to be Hugh Hewitt, so I went outside and chased him off with a shovel.

7:07 PM: Oh great. the Democrats are yelling from the basement about a problem. One of the Clinton people choked the bowl on basement commode and it's starting to back up, and they're screaming at me to fix it. I try to plunge it but the fumes are unbearable, so I cut up some Hefty leaf bags and duct tape the toilet door closed to minimize the stench. Looks like it will be a bad night for Hillary too.

7:18 PM: When I get back upstairs Tammy has John Edwards pinned against the wall in a chicken wing hold. "Hey Mister Let's Have a Caucus Party," she sneers, "one of your goddamn guests has been going at my makeup drawer." When she boots him out the front door, I realized I'm probably won't be getting any for a while. I decide to stop drinking beer, and switch to tequila.

7:31 PM: Jesus, what a disaster. The Huckabee people are speaking in tongues and accusing the Romney people of believing in dinosaurs. The McCain people have invited the network news people for their caucus in the garage, and that fucking Tim Russert has his lighting man standing on the hood of Tammy's Civic. I open up the garage door and shut off the garage power at the fuse box, figuring they'll get cold and go away.

7:42 PM: As if things couldn't get any worse, now the Democrats are coming upstairs to use the hall toilet because of the problem in the basement. The environmentalist only use one square of paper, and the others steal entire rolls. None of them wash their hands. I'm headed out on the deck to smoke another doob with the Thompson people, who seem to be the only sane ones here.

7:58 PM: Jeeeeshh. About 5 minutes ago a big black Lincoln stretch pulled up on the lawn and out pops Hillary, along with 15 or 20 of her closest flunkies and footmen. They barge right into the house, without ringing the bell, without so much as a "hey Dave," and head straight down to the basement. Apparently with the plugged up toilet and all the vote was not going real good for her, so she was here for a little last-minute canvasing. Some of the people in her entourage started instructing the caucus people in the basement to vote for her, but they pretty much ignore them. Then Hillary starts screaming at her main flunky, "goddamn it, I told you to make them vote for me!" Normally I'd probably feel bad for the guy, but I'm pretty drunk right now so I kinda laughed. But I laughed harder when Tammy pushed by the security people and grabbed Hillary by the hair and booted her ass out the front door into the driveway snowbank. I probably won't laugh as hard when Tammy does that to me later tonight.

8:15 PM: That was weird. I heard the exhaust fan running in the upstairs bathroom so I went up to turn it off. When I opened the door Barack Obama was in there torching a one-hitter. "Hey man, want a hit?" he goes, with a big grin. I'm pretty toasted already so I said no thanks. "That's cool,' he says. Really seems like a nice guy. So then he shakes out some blow on the counter and offers me a line. "No thanks man," I say. "That's cool," he says. "Y'all Chase the Dragon?" he asks, pulling out a spoon, lighter and some rubber tubing. I declined again. I'm not sure how good a president he will be, but he's certainly a lot better house guest than Hillary.

8:31 PM: Shit, talk about a buzzkill. Down in the living room Huckabee has won the GOP caucus and his salvation freakshow is pouring all my beer down the sink (even the good stuff like MGD), shouting"Praise Jesus!" I yell at them to stop, but they crank some godawful Creed song on the stereo and tell me they're going to perform an exorcism on me. The Democrats are screaming in the basement, apparently because they can't decide on a candidate and how to divy up the shit they stole from my garage and liquor cabinet. I'm too high to figure out what to do.

9:11 PM: All my friends know about Tammy's mean streak, and some of them wonder how I can risk staying around her. Well, sometimes that mean streak comes in handy. Like tonight when she grabbed her .410 and shot it off into the living room ceiling. "You don't have to go home, but you can't stay here," she yelled. "I will thank you to now get the hell off my property."

There was a lot of mumbles and grumbles, but they did all shuffle towards the door. Some Guiliani guy mumbled something about "sensible gun regulations," but Tammy cracked him on the back of the head with the stock of the .410. I laughed pretty hard at that, but then she turned and glared at me. "What are you laughing at, Party Boy? You get the hell out like the rest of them."

Long story short, I'm at Super 8 for the night and my laptop battery's almost dead. So no matter what the pundits and newspapers tell you, the real winner in Iowa tonight just locked me out of the house.

http://iowahawk.typepad.com/iowahawk/2008/01/liveblogging-th.html

Universe Prince

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3660
  • Of course liberty isn't safe; but it is good.
    • View Profile
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Iowa results:
« Reply #9 on: January 04, 2008, 02:39:06 AM »
Well, I'm a tad disappointed that Ron Paul didn't fare better, but I'm not unhappy or surprised with how he did. Certainly he fared much better than Giuliani. That Huckabee did so well, not a a surprise as much as they he beat Romney by so much. The only real surprise is that Thompson did so well. He even edged past McCain. I have to say I don't expect any of these results to be predictive of what the New Hampshire results will be. I expect Romney and Paul to do better, Huckabee, McCain and Thompson not so much. Giuliani, if he does better, I think he'll take votes from McCain and Romney, but he may not fare much better.

Obama beating Clinton, I expected that. Edwards to fare so well, I did not expect. I frankly don't understand his appeal. I wouldn't buy a used car from the guy. I think Clinton might fare better in New Hampshire, but I don't expect her to beat Obama there. I think Obama will get a lot of independent votes there, as will Ron Paul. If Clinton fares better in NH, she'll take votes from Edwards mostly, I think. If she doesn't beat Edwards in NH, her campaign might be doomed.
Your reality, sir, is lies and balderdash and I'm delighted to say that I have no grasp of it whatsoever.
--Hieronymus Karl Frederick Baron von Munchausen ("The Adventures of Baron Munchausen" [1988])--

BT

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 16141
    • View Profile
    • DebateGate
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Iowa results:
« Reply #10 on: January 04, 2008, 03:20:14 AM »
On the Iowa Results

A few thoughts on the Iowa results:

(1) My initial impression, which I am sure you share, is that this is being chalked up as huge wins for Obama and Huckabee, huge losses for Clinton and Romney. This interpretation could be a big deal. Remember that is exactly what it is. The press is not interpreting this as "Clinton ties Obama among Democrats in entrance poll" or "Mormon Romney finishes strong second in evangelical Iowa." This matters. Watch how the press continues to interpret these results over the next few days. It is the source of information for persuadable voters in New Hampshire. Perceptive observers of the horse race should move beyond the nouns, and start looking at the adjectives and adverbs. They make a big difference.

(2) It's gut-check time for the Clinton campaign. Watching Chris Matthews et al. on MSNBC last night - they were talking like it was all-but-over for Clinton. No way. New Hampshire is the early state that has the biggest impact. Not Iowa. Iowa has a habit of picking losers. It is easy for media types to forget that because in its most recent outing, 2004, it single-handedly determined the winner. But historically, Iowa does not make much of a big ripple nationwide. The big question: will Iowa move New Hampshire? Obama needs it to. He is in second there right now. We don't have an answer yet - and history provides a mixed message. Sometimes Iowa does move New Hampshire. Sometimes it doesn't.

(3) Huckabee is going to get a big surge in positive press - but he has two big problems. First, everybody is gong nuts about Huckabee tonight, but on Tuesday they'll be going nuts about McCain. That limits the effect of this win. Second, the next contests are coming much too soon for this media attention to yield dollars, and the dollars to yield organizations that can help him on February 5. Huckabee wants to run a campaign reminiscent of Carter '76 (in more ways than one), but Carter had one thing Huckabee does not: a schedule that is spread out.

(4) Tonight was bad for Romney. Really bad. He lost by a lot. He lost by more than anybody expected. He lost after having led for a year. He lost after a monumental effort. This loss was bigger than Clinton's. He is not his party's frontrunner. He cannot afford to lose a state he tried so hard to win. Worse for Romney - McCain had already surged ahead of him in New Hampshire prior to tonight's loss. This will not disrupt that dynamic. I would not go so far as John Ellis - but I will say that he is in really bad shape. His future in this race is bleak.

(5) Yesterday was the first official day of Rudy going "dark." He has no real plans to reemerge until January 29th. Is this a viable strategy? Honestly - I think it may be. If he wins Florida, he surges back into the race. I think Florida could hold for him, though I have real doubts. A lot of that depends on who is still in the race at that point. At the least, I think this is the best strategy that a candidate like Giuliani could pursue. A Giuliani nomination was always going to be a close call. It was always going to be a victory over a divided party. Giuliani should be happy that Huckabee has damaged Romney because Romney has money and Huckabee does not. Rudy wants February 5th to come down to Rudy versus the anti-Rudy candidate - and the less well-funded the anti-Rudy candidate, the better. But a McCain victory in New Hampshire should make Giuliani nervous - especially if it is as big as Huckabee's in Iowa. A three-way race between McCain, Rudy, and Huckabee would be harder for Rudy because he and McCain occupy much of the same ideological space. Rudy would probably like to see Huckabee hold the line in South Carolina.

(6) Fred Thompson is finished. Absolutely, positively finished. The reason? He has no more money - which is the reason all losing candidates drop out. And this defeat tonight is not going to get him any cash. The big Thompson question on my mind: if he drops out and endorses McCain, does that swing the 14% or so of South Carolinians who currently support Thompson?

(7) The same goes for Romney. If Romney fades from view after Tuesday - where do the Romney supporters go? Who are their second choices? Are they social conservatives who will support Huckabee, or are they voters who want hyper-competent executive management and a tough stance in the global war on terror? I have no idea. Nobody does. The polls don't tell us.

(8) Edwards is also done, in my opinion. He can't have much money left. He's in distant third everywhere in the nation. And nobody will be talking about him anymore. I expect him to linger - but it is clear that he is not the anti-Hillary candidate on the Democratic side. The big question: where does the 10-15% of the Democratic electorate who supports Edwards go?

(9) Ron Paul remains a non-factor despite his money and his strong showing. The reasons are two-fold. First, he cannot win the nomination. Second, he does not hurt anybody. My guess is that he is bringing new voters into the process. Good for him - but he is not a player in his party's nomination contest. (2:11 AM Update: A few readers have suggested that he hurts McCain. Maybe he will in New Hampshire. Both probably appeal to independents. But McCain is not up against George W. Bush in New Hampshire this time around. He's up against Romney - and he has a lead. While Paul may take some votes away from McCain, at this point it does not appear that he diminishes McCain's chance of winning New Hampshire.)

Page Printed from: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/01/on_the_iowa_results.html at January 04, 2008 - 01:18:13 AM CST

BT

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 16141
    • View Profile
    • DebateGate
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Iowa results:
« Reply #11 on: January 04, 2008, 03:30:03 AM »
Obama victory leaves Clinton scrambling
By: Mike Allen and Ben Smith
January 4, 2008 01:30 AM EST

Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) heads out of Iowa as the biggest news story in the world and a force that strategists for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) are uncertain how to stop.

With the New Hampshire primary just four days away, Clinton and her team now must convince voters that choosing Obama would be risky for the party and the country ? but they must do it in a way that doesn?t make her look small or desperate.

?Everyone underestimated this conflagration,? said a former Clinton administration official.

?If people think he?s electable, they?ll vote with their hearts and not their minds.?

For Obama, a key challenge is to absorb the new scrutiny that comes as people wrap their heads around a new idea ? President Obama ? and as Clinton supporters do their best to raise doubts about him.

Clinton?s camp had felt she had a better chance of winning New Hampshire than Iowa, and her press in the Granite State has generally been good.


   
But with the vicious media coverage she now seems likely to face, she could well go 0 for 2 heading into the South Carolina primary, where a strong black vote provides an inviting environment for Obama.

Civil rights leader Al Sharpton said in a phone interview that Obama ?shows that people of color can appeal to a broad base without sacrificing [their] base.?

 

Clinton was edged out for second place by John Edwards, who had spent the most time in Iowa of any of the candidates. His campaign issued a statement saying he "now barrels towards New Hampshire."

But Edwards, with more limited finances than Clinton or Obama, probably needed to win Iowa to pose a long-term threat to either of them ? particularly when Obama's triumph is plainly the story of the moment.

Obama?s huge opportunity is turning the story of his Iowa victory ? which was driven by independent voters ? into an appealing narrative for independent-minded New Hampshire.

"Obama needs to take the conversation back to national security and beat the GOP and Clinton to the stakes-raising phase of the national conversation,? one Democratic operative said.

Polling shows that Clinton?s challenge is convincing voters to like her and trust her ? a tall order under any circumstances, but even harder when she looks vulnerable.

Obama?s campaign recognized the opportunity of Iowa long before Clinton realized the potential peril. She set out to build a national campaign that didn?t depend on any given state, not realizing that Iowa would come to be seen as a make-or-break event for a candidacy that was long bolstered by an aura of inevitability.

Democratic strategists said Clinton plans a two-track recovery strategy.

First, on the process side, she will bolster her staff in key states and also is expected to introduce some new faces at headquarters.

Those are expected to include veterans of President Bill Clinton?s 1992 campaign ? the architects of the ?Comeback Kid? strategy.

?They need to reassure their base of support that they know what the hell they?re doing,? said one Democratic official close to the campaign.

?There are donors out there who are saying, 'What have we invested in here?' And they need to give the media a pivot point ? show that they are going to make changes so that the outcome is different going forward.?

The second track will be Clinton?s message, signaled in her concession speech: gracious, embracing change, but raising the question of who is best prepared to bring about change.

In talking points for Clinton surrogates, the campaign hinted at the harder message to come: ?We?re going to continue to make the case that in these serious times, when America faces big challenges, it will take a leader with Hillary?s strength and experience to deliver real change.?

Robert Zimmerman, a Democratic National Committeeman and major Clinton supporter from Long Island, looked at the bright side, saying: ?Being the underdog will be very liberating.?


http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=43409EA0-3048-5C12-002C5741166053EE

BT

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 16141
    • View Profile
    • DebateGate
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Iowa results:
« Reply #12 on: January 04, 2008, 03:33:23 AM »
Something new begins on the Republican side, too.

Everyone said Mike Huckabee was a big dope to leave Iowa Wednesday to fly to L.A. to be on Jay Leno, but did you see him on that thing? He got off a perfect line on why he's doing well against Romney: "People are looking for a presidential candidate who reminds them more of the guy they work with rather than the guy that laid them off." The studio audience loved him. And you know, in Iowa they watch "The Tonight Show" too.

Mr. Huckabee likes to head-fake people into thinking he's Gomer Pyle, but he's more like the barefoot boy of the green room. He's more James Carville than Jim Nabors.

What we have learned about Mr. Huckabee the past few months is that he's an ace entertainer with a warm, witty and compelling persona. He won with no money and little formal organization, with an evangelical network, with a folksy manner, and with the best guileless pose in modern politics. From the mail I have received the past month after criticizing him in this space, I would say his great power, the thing really pushing his supporters, is that they believe that what ails America and threatens its continued existence is not economic collapse or jihad, it is our culture.

They have been bruised and offended by the rigid, almost militant secularism and multiculturalism of the public schools; they reject those schools' squalor, in all senses of the word. They believe in God and family and America. They are populist: They don't admire billionaire CEOs, they admire husbands with two jobs who hold the family together for the sake of the kids; they don't need to see the triumph of supply-side thinking, they want to see that suffering woman down the street get the help she needs.

They believe that Mr. Huckabee, the minister who speaks their language, shares, down to the bone, their anxieties, concerns and beliefs. They fear that the other Republican candidates are caught up in a million smaller issues--taxing, spending, the global economy, Sunnis and Shia--and missing the central issue: again, our culture. They are populists who vote Republican, and as I have read their letters, I have felt nothing but respect.

But there are two problems. One is that while the presidency, as an office, can actually make real changes in the areas of economic and foreign policy, the federal government has a limited ability to change the culture of America. That is something conservatives used to know. Second, I'm sorry to say it is my sense that Mr. Huckabee is not so much leading a movement as riding a wave. One senses he brilliantly discerned and pursued an underserved part of the voting demographic, and went for it. Clever fellow. To me, the tipoff was "Don't Mormons believe that Jesus and the devil are brothers?"

http://opinionjournal.com/columnists/pnoonan/?id=110011083

The_Professor

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1735
    • View Profile
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Iowa results:
« Reply #13 on: January 04, 2008, 08:19:33 AM »
Are the 9 points a Huckabee vote or an anti-Romney vote?  I think it's too early in the campaign to write in the Huckster as the winner, but it's a dismal prospect to consider in any event.  The commentary I've seen attributes the Huckster's win to a strong conservative Christian vote in Iowa which won't exist in New Hampshire.


Less than a week ago, Huckabee and Romney were virtually tied. 

During the week, Romney spent like a lottery winner, putting all his cash into negative ads.

Huckabee blithely walked out and showed one which he designated cancelled with a wink.

The negative ads backfired, earning the biggest point spread in all the races.

Romney is now wounded in the most critical area of all--the Christian area, because Huckabee won the God contest over Romney, tonight at least.

Those two wounds--the loss of face by spending huge funds and negative ads plus rearranging the Christian count--might well change Romney's expectations some in N. H.

One other big thing:  Hillary and Romney shall a common denominator--they both represent establishment, and tonight both lost to representers of change.




One other big thing:  Hillary and Romney shall a common denominator--they both represent establishment, and tonight both lost to representers of change.

I remember voting for Jiimmy Carter, chiefly because he was a fresh face many years ago and look where THAT got us! sigh.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2008, 10:08:39 AM by The_Professor »
***************************
"Liberalism is a philosophy of consolation for western civilization as it commits suicide."
                                 -- Jerry Pournelle, Ph.D

hnumpah

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2483
  • You have another think coming. Use it.
    • View Profile
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Iowa results:
« Reply #14 on: January 04, 2008, 08:48:26 AM »
Liveblogging the Iowa Caucuses...

Thanks, BT, that was great. Something to clear my mind of all the 'analysis' and 'punditry' and just plain old BS following last night's results.
"I love WikiLeaks." - Donald Trump, October 2016