Ohio Democratic Presidential Primary
Clinton Lead Slipping in OhioTuesday, February 26, 2008
With just a week to go until the crucial March 4 Democratic Presidential Primaries,
Barack Obama continues to gain ground on Hillary Clinton in Ohio.
The latest Rasmussen Reports poll shows Clinton earning 48% of the Ohio Democratic Presidential Primary vote. That?s unchanged from a week ago. Barack Obama?s support has grown to 43%. That?s up from 40% last week and 38% the week before.
Overall, Clinton?s lead is now just five percentage points in Ohio, down from an eight-point advantage last week and fourteen points two weeks ago.
Just 16% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters believe the North American Free Trade Agreement?NAFTA?is good for America. Fifty-five percent (55%) say the trade agreement negotiated by the Clinton Administration is bad for the nation.
By a 53% to 14% margin, voters believe that Obama opposes NAFTA while there are mixed perceptions on where Clinton stands. Thirty-five percent (35%) believe she favors NAFTA, 31% believe she opposes it and 34% are not sure. This issue is critical in a state that has lost thousands of manufacturing jobs. Politically, these lower-income voters have generally supportive of Clinton throughout the primary season.
Clinton still leads among voters who earn less than $60,000 a year. Obama leads among higher income voters.
Clinton leads by eleven points among women but trails by four among men.
A recent commentary by Susan Estrich wondered if the ?G-word??gender?is the reason for Clinton?s struggles. Nationally, Obama leads Clinton in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. According to the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator, the Democrats have a modest early lead in the Electoral College.
In Ohio, Clinton is viewed favorably by 77%, down four points since last week. Obama has earned favorable reviews from 72%, up a couple of points over the past week.
Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Likely Democratic Primary Voters say that Clinton would be at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated. That?s down five points from 82% a week ago.
Seventy-nine percent (79%) say the same about Obama. That?s up four points over the past week.
Ohio is one of two states that the Clinton campaign and many outside experts have deemed essential for the former First Lady to win is she is to have a chance of winning the Democratic Presidential nomination. Texas, which also votes on March 4, is the other. The latest Rasmussen Reports poll in Texas shows the same trend in Obama?s direction. Heading into the final debate before Election Day, Clinton?s lead is down to just a single point in the Lone Star State.
Data from Rasmussen Markets suggests that Obama is now strongly favored to win the nomination.
Rasmussen Markets data immediately prior to the release of this polling data showed the race in Ohio to be a toss-up (current prices: Obama 48.1% Clinton 55.2% . Overall, in the race for the nomination, Obama is given a 82.3% chance to win while expectations for a Clinton victory are at 17.9%. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.
Fifty-six percent (56%) of those surveyed were women, 44% were men.
Fourteen percent (14%) were under 30, 31% aged 30-49, and 51% were over 50.
Eighty-one percent (81%) of those surveyed were white while 83% were Democrats.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/ohio_democratic_presidential_primary
