Author Topic: The Sderot Calculus  (Read 1978 times)

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Christians4LessGvt

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The Sderot Calculus
« on: February 26, 2008, 05:42:03 PM »
 
The Sderot Calculus
February 26, 2008; Page A18

GLOBAL VIEW
By BRET STEPHENS   

The Israeli town of Sderot lies less than a mile from the Gaza Strip. Since the beginning of the intifada seven years ago, it has borne the brunt of some 2,500 Kassam rockets fired from Gaza by Palestinian terrorists. Only about a dozen of these Kassams have proved lethal, though earlier this month brothers Osher and Rami Twito were seriously injured by one as they walked down a Sderot street on a Saturday evening. Eight-year-old Osher lost a leg.

It is no stretch to say that life in Sderot has become unendurable. Palestinians and their chorus of supporters -- including the 118 countries of the so-called Non-Aligned Movement, much of Europe, and the panoply of international aid organizations from the World Bank to the United Nations -- typically reply that life in the Gaza Strip is also unendurable, and that Palestinian casualties greatly exceed Israeli ones. But this argument is fatuous: Conditions in Gaza, in so far as they are shaped by Israel, are a function of conditions in Sderot. No Palestinian Kassams (or other forms of terrorism), no Israeli "siege."

The more vexing question, both morally and strategically, is what Israel ought to do about Gaza. The standard answer is that Israel's response to the Kassams ought to be "proportionate." What does that mean? Does the "proportion" apply to the intention of those firing the Kassams -- to wit, indiscriminate terror against civilian populations? In that case, a "proportionate" Israeli response would involve, perhaps, firing 2,500 artillery shells at random against civilian targets in Gaza. Or should proportion apply to the effects of the Kassams -- an exquisitely calibrated, eye-for-eye operation involving the killing of a dozen Palestinians and the deliberate maiming or traumatizing of several hundred more?

Surely this isn't what advocates of proportion have in mind. What they really mean is that Israel ought to respond with moderation. But the criteria for moderation are subjective. Should Israel pick off Hamas leaders who are ordering the rocket attacks? The European Parliament last week passed a resolution denouncing the practice of targeted assassinations. Should Israel adopt purely economic measures to punish Hamas for the Kassams? The same resolution denounced what it called Israel's "collective punishment" of Palestinians. Should Israel seek to dismantle the Kassams through limited military incursions? This, too, has the unpardonable effect of resulting in too many Palestinian casualties, which are said to be "disproportionate" to the number of Israelis injured by the Kassams.

By these lights, Israel's presumptive right to self-defense has no practical application as far as Gaza is concerned. Instead, Israel is counseled to allow goods to flow freely into the Strip, and to negotiate a cease-fire with Hamas.

But here another set of considerations intrudes. Hamas was elected democratically and by overwhelming margins in Gaza. It has never once honored a cease-fire with Israel. Following Israel's withdrawal of its soldiers and settlements from the Strip in 2005 there was a six-fold increase in the number of Kassam strikes on Israel.

Hamas has also made no effort to rewrite its 1988 charter, which calls for Israel's destruction. The charter is explicitly anti-Semitic: "The time will not come until Muslims will fight the Jews (and kill them); until the Jews hide behind rocks and trees, which will cry: O Muslim! there is a Jew hiding behind me, come on and kill him!" (Article Seven) "In order to face the usurpation of Palestine by the Jews, we have no escape from raising the banner of Jihad." (Article 15) And so on.

It would seem perverse for Israeli taxpayers, including residents of Sderot, to feed the mouth that bites them. It would seem equally perverse for Israel merely to bide its time for an especially unlucky day -- a Kassam hitting a busload of schoolchildren, for instance -- before striking hard at Gaza. But unless Israel is willing to accept the military, political and diplomatic burdens of occupying all or parts of Gaza indefinitely, the effects of a major military incursion could be relatively short-lived. Israel suffered many more casualties before it withdrew from the Strip than it has since.

Perhaps the answer is to wait for a technological fix and, in the meantime, hope for the best. Israel is at work on a missile-defense program called "Iron Dome" that may be effective against Kassams, though the system won't be in place for at least two years. It could also purchase land-based models of the Phalanx Close-In Weapons System, used by the U.S. to defend the Green Zone in Baghdad.

But technology addresses neither the Islamic fanaticism that animates Hamas nor the moral torpor of Western policy makers and commentators who, on balance, find more to blame in Israel's behavior than in Hamas's. Nor, too, would an Iron Dome or the Phalanx absolve the Israeli government from the necessity of punishing those who seek its destruction. Prudence is an important consideration of statesmanship, but self-respect is vital. And no self-respecting nation can allow the situation in Sderot to continue much longer, a point it is in every civilized country's interest to understand.

On March 9, 1916, Mexican revolutionary Pancho Villa attacked the border town of Columbus, N.M., killing 18 Americans. President Woodrow Wilson ordered Gen. John J. Pershing and 10,000 soldiers into Mexico for nearly a year to hunt Villa down, in what was explicitly called a "punitive expedition." Pershing never found Villa, making the effort something of a failure. Then again, Villa's raid would be the last significant foreign attack on continental U.S. soil for 85 years, six months and two days.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120398961080492299.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries

"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!" - Ronald Reagan - June 12, 1987

Xavier_Onassis

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Re: The Sderot Calculus
« Reply #1 on: February 26, 2008, 06:57:29 PM »
My guess is after several attacks, the people of Columbus would have had the bloody good sense to move away.
The Sderotis do not seem to possess this good sense.
"Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana."

Christians4LessGvt

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Re: The Sderot Calculus
« Reply #2 on: February 26, 2008, 07:28:51 PM »
My guess is after several attacks, the people of Columbus would have had the
bloody good sense to move away. The Sderotis do not seem to possess this good sense


You would offer surrender as the best answer. ::)
"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!" - Ronald Reagan - June 12, 1987

Rich

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Re: The Sderot Calculus
« Reply #3 on: February 26, 2008, 09:23:51 PM »
Here's hoping the same thing happens to BO.

Xavier_Onassis

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Re: The Sderot Calculus
« Reply #4 on: February 27, 2008, 08:30:04 AM »
The Israelis have invaded Gaza countless times, occupied it for decades, and curiously, the Gazans still detest them. There will be rockets into Sderot no matter what Israel does. They cannot exterminate the Gazans.

So if you lived there, and had a brain, you would leave.
Just like any sane person would have fled industrial waste sites. It is just good sense.
"Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana."

Christians4LessGvt

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Re: The Sderot Calculus
« Reply #5 on: February 27, 2008, 11:44:12 AM »
There will be rockets into Sderot no matter what Israel does. They cannot exterminate the Gazans.

I assure you there would be no more rockets if I was in charge, just like there are
no more weapons being fired from the American Indians. Countries that put
up with rockets being fired on their territory basically have two choices.
Surrender or destroy the enemy shooting at you. The pain level must be raised
to an intolerable level. There are people in Iran that want to topple the Mullahs
but currently the pain level is intolerable to shoot at the Mullahs. There are people
that wish to topple almost all current rulers. If the pain level is too high it does not
happen for the time being. Israel needs to raise the pain level for people shooting rockets
at them daily. I would raise the pain level to an intolerable level. Almost any other current
nation existing in today's world had to destroy an enemy to be on the land they
currently reside on. You and other apologist just want to pretend it's different with Israel.

So if you lived there, and had a brain, you would leave.

Talk of a "cut & run" surrenderist.
But don't feel bad countless others throughout history have "not got it".
"Oh we can't defeat the Indians look what they just did to Custer"
"Oh we can't defeat the Confederacy, we'll lose hundredes of thousands of American lives"
"Oh my look we were defeated at the Alamo"
"Oh my Japan/Pearl Harbor, Germany/Hitler, Blah blah blah.


 
« Last Edit: February 27, 2008, 05:07:06 PM by ChristiansUnited4LessGvt »
"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!" - Ronald Reagan - June 12, 1987

Xavier_Onassis

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Re: The Sderot Calculus
« Reply #6 on: February 27, 2008, 02:47:36 PM »
Isreal needs to raise the pain level for people shooting rockets
at them daily. I would raise the pain level to an intolerable level. Almost any other current
nation existing in today's world had to destroy an enemy to be on the land they
currently reside on. You and other apologist just want to pretend it's different with Israel.

===============================================================================
Nah, it's not different at all. Except that Israel wants to contain the Gazans in what is the worst possible cross between a jail and a slum, forever.

They have no jobs, they cannot import anything because they have no money. They cannot export anything, because Israel controls the seaports, the roads and the airports. It's rather like you have a bunch of hungry people trapped in some sort of Aushwitz and you withdraw the guards and the support.

They have nothing to do all day but hate you for taking their land decades ago and preventing them from doing anything useful or productive. There is no hope for the people of Gaza. The PLO could not relieve their misery and neither can Hamas. So a few of them spend their time making cheapo rockets, just so someone will notice them. It's like the kid that has THUG LIFE tattooed on his tummy. It's self-destructive and dumb, but people do notice.

Israel has sent troops in several times and the rockets have not stopped. Israel cannot exterminate the Gazans, as Hitler or Stalin would have done, so they need to put up, shut up or move away.

You are free to go to Israel and try to control the Gazans yourself. Me, I am just an observer. I am rather happy that I don't live in Sderot, but if I were so unfortunate, I would leave. I consider this to be the wisest alternative. If you don't, that's fine with me. But bthere are good reasons why Israel has not been able to stop the rockets and why they really can't do this on a permanent basis without doing something to cause the Gazans to feel like they have nothing to lose.

The US could not possibly stage another Indian massacre like Sand Creek or even Wounded Knee. The days for genocide have passed, at least in any sort of civilized nation.

"Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana."

Plane

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Re: The Sderot Calculus
« Reply #7 on: February 27, 2008, 02:54:32 PM »
They cannot exterminate the Gazans.



Oh?
There is not tecnical problem preventing this is there? The means are in place.

Xavier_Onassis

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Re: The Sderot Calculus
« Reply #8 on: February 27, 2008, 03:50:03 PM »
They cannot exterminate the Gazans

Oh?
There is not tecnical problem preventing this is there? The means are in place.

===================================================================
Ja w?hl, mein Fuherer! Zie means , zey are in place!

Actually, there are over two million people in Gaza, so it would be a rather large technical problem. Not only that, but the world press would mention that only less than 1% of all Gazans had ever had anything to do with these rockets, so killing the rest of the Gazans without a trial would be frowned upon.

I am not, however, the reason why the Israelis are not practicing genocide against the Gazans, I am merely a dude sitting here saying how un[popular the world would regard this. If you really want to know what is on the Israeli's mind regarding this issue, perhaps you will find it online in the Jerusalem Post or some other Israeli newspaper, since it is not I, but the Israelis themselves who are refusing to wheel out the Zyklon-B or whatever, as it were.

Were I an Israeli in Sderot, I would move elsewhere, and for the same reason you will not find me living in a highrise condo on the beach, especially during a hurricane. This would be because I have damn better sense.

As the song goes,

"And they say you don't tug on Superman's cape
You don't spit into the wind,
You don't pull the mask off an 'ole Lone Ranger
And you don't mess around with Jim"

There is a difference between cowardice and common sense, even though not everyone is aware of this.
I am in favor of the latter.
I will not gamble in a casino, and I would never think of punching Mike Tyson in the schnozz.
A wise man will not mess with pros, or anyone else one cannot control.


« Last Edit: February 27, 2008, 03:53:29 PM by Xavier_Onassis »
"Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana."

Plane

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Re: The Sderot Calculus
« Reply #9 on: February 27, 2008, 04:17:09 PM »
They cannot exterminate the Gazans

Oh?
There is not tecnical problem preventing this is there? The means are in place.

===================================================================
Ja w?hl, mein Fuherer! Zie means , zey are in place!

Actually, there are over two million people in Gaza, so it would be a rather large technical problem. Not only that, but the world press would mention that only less than 1% of all Gazans had ever had anything to do with these rockets, so killing the rest of the Gazans without a trial would be frowned upon.

I am not, however, the reason why the Israelis are not practicing genocide against the Gazans, I am merely a dude sitting here saying how un[popular the world would regard this. If you really want to know what is on the Israeli's mind regarding this issue, perhaps you will find it online in the Jerusalem Post or some other Israeli newspaper, since it is not I, but the Israelis themselves who are refusing to wheel out the Zyklon-B or whatever, as it were.

Were I an Israeli in Sderot, I would move elsewhere, and for the same reason you will not find me living in a highrise condo on the beach, especially during a hurricane. This would be because I have damn better sense.

As the song goes,

"And they say you don't tug on Superman's cape
You don't spit into the wind,
You don't pull the mask off an 'ole Lone Ranger
And you don't mess around with Jim"

There is a difference between cowardice and common sense, even though not everyone is aware of this.
I am in favor of the latter.
I will not gamble in a casino, and I would never think of punching Mike Tyson in the schnozz.
A wise man will not mess with pros, or anyone else one cannot control.




I consider it a solvable tecnical problem , but an insoluble people problem.

Killing them all would not work unless there was a will in Isreal to actually do it , and I don't think there is .

The condemnation of the rest of the world makes some diffrence , but they are getting the condemnation of the world already, how much worse could it get?

The other solution that is just as unlikely , or even more unlikely to be tried , is to have a detante' . If everyone there simply stopped shooting , stopped being provacative to the other side , stopped useing provacative language , there would be space and employment for everyone involved .

But since the Palestinians would rather die than be freindly to Jews and Jews are only a little better , the killing all option seems more likely than the onset of truce.

Rich

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Re: The Sderot Calculus
« Reply #10 on: February 27, 2008, 04:33:29 PM »
>>But since the Palestinians would rather die than be freindly to Jews and Jews are only a little better , the killing all option seems more likely than the onset of truce.<<

Only a little better?

Given that Israel has peace with both Egypt and Jordon I would say Israel is MUCh better than "Palestinians."

Plane

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Re: The Sderot Calculus
« Reply #11 on: February 27, 2008, 04:50:04 PM »
>>But since the Palestinians would rather die than be freindly to Jews and Jews are only a little better , the killing all option seems more likely than the onset of truce.<<

Only a little better?

Given that Israel has peace with both Egypt and Jordon I would say Israel is MUCh better than "Palestinians."


That is worthy of discussion.


The Palestinians might be magnanimous in victory , perhaps moreso than the Isrelis have ever been.

But will there ever be a chance to find out whether they would be ?

Is it worthy of actually letting it happen?

After all ,they might be somewhat less magnanimous , for all we can tell.

Xavier_Onassis

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Re: The Sderot Calculus
« Reply #12 on: February 27, 2008, 05:46:45 PM »
I consider it a solvable tecnical problem , but an insoluble people problem.

Killing them all would not work unless there was a will in Isreal to actually do it , and I don't think there is .

The condemnation of the rest of the world makes some diffrence , but they are getting the condemnation of the world already, how much worse could it get?

The other solution that is just as unlikely , or even more unlikely to be tried , is to have a detante' . If everyone there simply stopped shooting , stopped being provacative to the other side , stopped useing provacative language , there would be space and employment for everyone involved .

But since the Palestinians would rather die than be freindly to Jews and Jews are only a little better , the killing all option seems more likely than the onset of truce.
======================================================================

How much worse could it get?
Pretty much like what happened to South Africa. No credit, no imports to Israel, no exports from Israel. All of Europe does business with Israel, and it is very far from being sulf-sufficient. Did we mention no oil?

There will be no genocide of Palestinians. Neither the US nor the Israeli public would countenence this. Killing all the Palestinians in Gaza would take a rather long time. Two million is a lot of murders, executions, whatever you call it.

There does not seem to be much likelihood of any sort of agreement, either.

As for Richie saying that the Israelis are NICER and deserve MORE consideration, well, the Palestinians feel exactly that way about themselves. They did not invite the Zionists to move in and take over, after all.

Again, If I lived in Sderot, I would think of myself first, and just move.
"Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana."

Michael Tee

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Re: The Sderot Calculus
« Reply #13 on: February 27, 2008, 09:00:19 PM »
<<But this argument is fatuous: Conditions in Gaza, in so far as they are shaped by Israel, are a function of conditions in Sderot. No Palestinian Kassams (or other forms of terrorism), no Israeli "siege." >>

Fatuous?  This guy apparently doesn't know the meaning of fatuous. 

No Palestinian Kassams, no Israeli "siege?" 

Try this:  No Israeli occupation of West Bank Palestinian lands, no Palestinian Kassams.

Rich

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Re: The Sderot Calculus
« Reply #14 on: February 28, 2008, 12:11:00 PM »
>>The Palestinians might be magnanimous in victory , perhaps more so than the Israelis have ever been.<<

More magnanimous? You must be joking.

First of all, Palestinians idea of victory differs greatly from that of the Israelis. Palestinians want genocide. Israel handed the Gaza strip over to the Palestinians in an effort to further peace. This is what the Palestinians wanted, land. So there it is, it?s all yours. What do they do? They use it as a safe haven to launch attacks against Israeli civilians. They use it as a recruiting and training station for all others who share their genocidal goal. Gaza is a model for what a Palestinian state along side Israel would look like.

>>But will there ever be a chance to find out whether they would be ?<<

Of course. I once again point to Egypt and Jordon. Israel defeated both countries but magnanimously returned land to both these countries taken in a war initiated by these countries.

>>Is it worthy of actually letting it happen?<<

Israel would certainly love to live in peace and allow it?s people to live in peace. However, in my opinion, it will never happen until Israel decides to act against it?s attackers in a forceful and prolonged manner. It?s obvious there?s no talking to people who follow Hitler?s example and want to complete his plan.

« Last Edit: February 28, 2008, 12:18:24 PM by Rich »