Author Topic: Economic Disaster Looms  (Read 16047 times)

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Lanya

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Re: Economic Disaster Looms
« Reply #30 on: October 30, 2006, 03:53:24 PM »
I just wanted to add this bit of a column to the discussion.

"American prosperity is owed not only to a brilliant design for a government and generations of hard work, but also to an amazing run of good luck. We inherited an entire continent of virgin land - an inconceivable bonanza - at precisely the moment that the industrial revolution made it possible to exploit such expanses.

Then, in World War I, Europe, our only economic competitor, blew its brains out and repeated the act 20 years later, with the Japanese joining in. That left the U.S. astride the globe with the only intact economy on earth. We were generating 62% of the entire planet's GDP. And we have riden that horse ever since.

But the measure of leadership is not how well it leads when times are good. It is how it leads through adversity, when times are bad. That is why we revere Washington, Lincoln and Roosevelt as we do. Today America faces some of the biggest economic challenges it has ever faced and the benign wind of serendipity is no longer at our backs.

Budget deficits. Trade deficits. Unfunded liabilities. Oil. And China. In all of these arenas, Bush's leadership has failed, badly, even catastrophically. His policies make each of these problems dramatically worse. They effectively amount to an abandonment of the U.S. economy and a milking of its assets and wealth into the hands of a very small group of the world's richest people. Like the Bush family. "

http://www.commondreams.org/views06/1029-26.htm

 We were generating 62% of the entire planet's GDP   with the tax rate I mentioned earlier.  Hmmm.
Planned Parenthood is America’s most trusted provider of reproductive health care.

Amianthus

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Re: Economic Disaster Looms
« Reply #31 on: October 30, 2006, 04:00:24 PM »
Tell me, when all the people over 40 are retired, and no longer paying in, where will the government find money to pay for their benefits, since the people who are working have all their money going to their benefits?

It would be time for the feds to pay back their debts, wouldn't it? SS has all those bonds sitting around that they could cash in...
Do not anticipate trouble, or worry about what may never happen. Keep in the sunlight. (Benjamin Franklin)

Amianthus

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Re: Economic Disaster Looms
« Reply #32 on: October 30, 2006, 04:02:52 PM »
Economics is no science and beware anyone who tells you otherwise. It is an amalgamation of mathematics, art, psychology, politics, and philosophy all rolled into one bizarre attempt to project reality onto the future.

Sounds like what was said about quantum mechanics about 60 years ago.
Do not anticipate trouble, or worry about what may never happen. Keep in the sunlight. (Benjamin Franklin)

The_Professor

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Re: Economic Disaster Looms
« Reply #33 on: October 30, 2006, 04:42:54 PM »
and that was solved in Timeline. see http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0300556/    ;D

Seriously, Lanya's article makes sense as to the history, post WWII to now.

Still, the issue rermains: what needs to happen NOW?

_JS

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Re: Economic Disaster Looms
« Reply #34 on: October 30, 2006, 04:58:22 PM »
Quote
Sounds like what was said about quantum mechanics about 60 years ago.

Yes. Quantum mechanics and economics are exactly alike.

*sigh*

There's a reason economics is a social science.
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Xavier_Onassis

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Re: Economic Disaster Looms
« Reply #35 on: October 30, 2006, 05:24:55 PM »
It would be time for the feds to pay back their debts, wouldn't it? SS has all those bonds sitting around that they could cash in...

============================================================
That would, of course, be part of my plan.
I would also raise the SS rates to tax everyone at the current SS rate.
It would help if the government were not so ready to monger unwinnable wars in places like Iraq.
I think an inheritence tax on inherited wealth over $5,000,000, and pegged to the CPI would make a lot of sense.

It is true that economics is not an exact science. But it is also true that we do know oodles more about it than we did back in the days of Herbert Hoover and FDR, and this needs to be taken into account.

I naturally favor SS paying me at the rate that was promised me long ago, being as I have bewen paying into the mutha since I was 16, barring only four years when I was studying and living out of the country. I earned money in Mexico, but I am afraid that I did not pay any SS taxes to any government on it.

I could probably live on what I have saved in my IRA's and 403-B's, but the SS payments would make life easier, for sure.




"Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana."

Plane

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Re: Economic Disaster Looms
« Reply #36 on: October 30, 2006, 05:25:37 PM »
Quote
Social Security should at the minimum be barred from contributing to the general fund and iou's should not be considered legal tender. I would prefer that the program be privatized. or more likely modeled after the thrift savings program. All those under 40 would be enrolled in the new program, all those over 40 would remain in the old program. I have no problem eliminating the ceiling on income eligible for SS taxes.


=======================================================
O How utterly clever!

Tell me, when all the people over 40 are retired, and no longer paying in, where will the government find money to pay for their benefits, since the people who are working have all their money going to their benefits?

I suppose that if they stop paying the geezers, some of them will starve and die. But many will vote before they croak.
And they will not vote in favor of the klutzes who passed your clever plan.

The guys who passed this plan will be quite lucky if the geezers do not parade about, with the heads of the originators of your plan stuck atop tall sticks."



This is certain to happen , I will be one of the Geezers that will be holding a tall stick , on the up wards end of the stick I want the head of one of the anti reformer reactionary Democrats who stood against all repair efforts and shot the bottom out of all lifeboats as the SS Social Security was sinking.

Read your own statement of the problem , do you really think it is viable to tax a shrinking pool of workers at a growint rate ad infinitum?

The_Professor

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Re: Economic Disaster Looms
« Reply #37 on: October 30, 2006, 05:37:43 PM »
You mean you aren't a GEEZER now? hahahahahaha

Plane

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Re: Economic Disaster Looms
« Reply #38 on: October 30, 2006, 05:43:28 PM »
Quote
Sounds like what was said about quantum mechanics about 60 years ago.

Yes. Quantum mechanics and economics are exactly alike.

*sigh*

There's a reason economics is a social science.


Why is Economics less exact than animal husbandry?

You cannot know how many calves a particular cow will produce , but you can rely on stistics to tell you within reasonable error how many calves a heard can produce.

Although the huge number of individual choices involved produces a haze on the numbers , the great number of people makeing the choices firms up the stats quite a bit.

The prediction of the motion of a single water molicule is a Quantum equation of high uncertainty and great complexity , but the behavior of a slug of water being dumped from a bucket sin't hard math at all , even though the individual molicules are winding very complex paths the water being dumped from one bucket into another does not need to account for all of the molicules individually and can be described in simple terms.


We do not have enough computeing power on the planet to account for the effect of a change of taxation on a particular individual , but the laffer curve does not pretend to do that.

We know that at one end of the curve is a Zero because collecting no taxes produces no government revenue , one could even infer that the Zero would vbe true at any rate that did not cover the expense of the IRS in collection.

On the other end we have a Zero that is just as certian because putting all of the economy into governance would be a rediculous load , this zero must extend downwards untill there is a rate at which the economy can function at some crippled level and carry a bloated government .


Where the real center of the laffer curve belongs seems to be a mystery , where the most return occurs probably is not at 50%  or 80% or 20% but experiment can find the perfect point even if there is no adequate mathmatical model, if taxes are lowered and tax revenue falls this may indicate that the area below the optimum level has been entered.

But if taxes are cut and the revenue rises then the optimum might have been reached , or the optimum might still be lower .

Still unasked is whether it is correct for government to make the biggest bite on our economy that it can , this money is not a possession of the government by natural right , if the government can be run on a lower amount than the best taxes we can pay what is the point of a tax higher than that?

larry

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Re: Economic Disaster Looms
« Reply #39 on: October 30, 2006, 05:45:36 PM »
infinitum? The Baby Boomers are not an infinitum. It is a swell that will come and go over a twenty year period. the economy will always  have an ebbtide and the bad years will be offset by the good years. In fifty years the ratio of young working Americans will be larger than the retired. The average life span is 80 years of age. The age of retirement begin at 62. We work about 40 years of our life. The numbers are in favor of maintaining the SS system as is.

Plane

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Re: Economic Disaster Looms
« Reply #40 on: October 30, 2006, 05:45:56 PM »
You mean you aren't a GEEZER now? hahahahahaha

http://www.answers.com/topic/geezer


If I am a Geezer now , I will shurely be a Geezer then.


Maybe a seinor Geezer.

Plane

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Re: Economic Disaster Looms
« Reply #41 on: October 30, 2006, 05:48:29 PM »
infinitum? The Baby Boomers are not an infinitum. It is a swell that will come and go over a twenty year period. the economy will always  have an ebbtide and the bad years will be offset by the good years. In fifty years the ratio of young working Americans will be larger than the retired. The average life span is 80 years of age. The age of retirement begin at 62. We work about 40 years of our life. The numbers are in favor of maintaining the SS system as is.



You have just stated the reason that your conclusion cannot work.

There will be a swelling of the retiree numbers that will not reduce for twenty years.

Starting about now.

kimba1

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Re: Economic Disaster Looms
« Reply #42 on: October 30, 2006, 05:52:03 PM »
 if the government can be run on a lower amount than the best taxes we can pay what is the point of a tax higher than that?

as my grandma used to say all the time

thats jusy crazy talk

larry

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Re: Economic Disaster Looms
« Reply #43 on: October 30, 2006, 05:56:00 PM »
Off course it works. Twenty years is nothing when we are talking about a nation's economy. There is no time limit, we are a nation and we will go on. The Great Depression came and went. Look at America now. Off course there will be hard times, they will pass.

Plane

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Re: Economic Disaster Looms
« Reply #44 on: October 30, 2006, 06:07:49 PM »
Off course it works. Twenty years is nothing when we are talking about a nation's economy. There is no time limit, we are a nation and we will go on. The Great Depression came and went. Look at America now. Off course there will be hard times, they will pass.


No


Two years of unemployment over ten percent will end the SS forever, even if we are talking about starting right now.

I may be optomistic about that , perhaps less than one year , then we will have that parade with long sticks decorated by the guys that told us to stay the course and not change SS one iota.